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What to Expect: Illinois

by in Opponents | February 8th, 2012

After a road win over the Boilermakers on Saturday night in Mackey Arena, the Hoosiers return home to Assembly Hall for a Thursday night meeting with Illinois. The Fighting Illini have dropped four of five and are 1-3 on the road in Big Ten play.

The game will be shown on the Big Ten Network (Gus Johnson and Jimmy Jackson) and broadcast on the IU radio network (Sirius 94/XM 192):

With the meat of their Big Ten schedule out of the way, the Hoosiers will now have the luxury of finishing the conference slate with four of their six remaining games at Assembly Hall. Their two road single plays (Nebraska, Wisconsin) produced a pair of losses and now the Hoosiers will get their home single plays (Illinois, Northwestern) in back-to-back games.

The Fighting Illini have been the victim of some tough luck in recent weeks as their four losses since Jan. 19 have come by a combined total of 15 points. Bruce Weber’s club looks to be solidly in the NCAA Tournament field as of today, but with trips to Bloomington, Ann Arbor, Columbus and Madison still remaining, that could change.

Illinois is the Big Ten’s third worst offensive team in conference play at just .98 points per possession, but they’ve made up for it by giving up just .99 points per possession (4th in the conference). Their defense is anchored by the post presence of Meyers Leonard, a 7-foot-1 sophomore who is projected to go in the first half of next June’s NBA Draft. Leonard is a big reason why Illinois is the third-best shot blocking team in conference and the Illini are giving up a 2-point field goal percentage of 46.8.

Offensively, the story is much more grim for Illinois. They’re turning it over at a high rate in league play (22.2 TO%) and are shooting just 32.2 percent from 3-point range. The Illini have been effective inside the 3-point line (51.3% on 2s), but their offense has been mostly predicated on Brandon Paul hunting looks when he’s on the court. Paul is just one of three players in the conference using more than 28% of his team’s possessions.

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What to Expect: Purdue

by in Opponents | February 3rd, 2012

The Hoosiers will look to avoid a five-game road losing streak on Saturday night in West Lafayette in a meeting with the Purdue Boilermakers. Indiana’s last win over Purdue came on Feb. 19, 2008 at Assembly Hall. 

The game will be shown on the Big Ten Network (Dave Revsine and Jimmy Jackson) and broadcast on the IU radio network (Sirius 92/XM 190):

The road in the Big Ten won’t get any easier for Indiana on Saturday night. Purdue is looking to solidify its NCAA Tournament resume and a win over the Hoosiers in Mackey Arena would be a step in that direction. With a trip to Columbus looming next, the Boilermakers are viewing this game as a must-win.

For the Hoosiers, this is one of three chances remaining to beat a Big Ten team on the road not named Penn State. In terms of entering a hostile environment, Indiana has not and will not face a more daunting task than Mackey Arena. The Boilermaker faithful are always charged up to play the Hoosiers, but Saturday night should be an electric atmosphere given Indiana’s resurgence this season and success in recruiting. The good news for Indiana is that Purdue has dropped two of its last three at home. If they can avoid a start like Wednesday night, this could be an opportunity to quickly swing momentum back to the positive side.

A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS

Both teams will enter Saturday’s game with a negative efficiency margin in league play. Indiana is scoring 1.09 points per possession while surrendering 1.10 and Purdue is scoring 1.04 points per possession while surrendering 1.07. The Hoosiers have hovered near the bottom of the Big Ten defensively all season. And Purdue, the top Big Ten defense a season ago, has fallen to the bottom half of the league.

The main hole defensively for Purdue is defending the 3-point line. Big Ten teams are shooting 40.6 percent from beyond the arc against the Boilermakers and the Hoosiers are the league’s best 3-point shooting team. Indiana will still look to play through Cody Zeller first in this game, but ball movement is going to be pivotal on the perimeter to find open shooters.

Beyond the 3-point defense, Saturday should be a good opportunity to pound the ball inside to Zeller. Purdue is allowing a 2-point field goal percentage of 50.2 percent and they’re blocking just 7.9 percent of shot attempts. If Zeller can establish himself early, trips to the foul line could follow. The Boilermakers are allowing an opponent free throw rate of 37.1 percent, which is fourth-worst in the conference. If Purdue elects to go small, Robbie Hummel will likely draw the Zeller assignment. A bigger lineup would mean Travis Carroll starts out on Cody.

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What to Expect: Michigan

by in Opponents | January 31st, 2012

In lieu of our usual “What to Expect” feature, we’ve switched things up today and have enlisted the expertise of Dylan Burkhardt for analysis of Wednesday’s opponent: Michigan. Burkhardt, who is a good friend of the site, is the founder and editor of UMHoops, a must-read for fans of Wolverine hoops. You can read our conversation with the UMHoops founder below:

The first game between these two teams came down to a few final possessions at the end and could have gone either way. Neither Trey Burke or Tim Hardaway Jr. shot the ball particularly well in that game, which I thought was a huge key for the Hoosiers grinding out the win. How have both guys been playing in the weeks since the first meeting and what does Michigan need out of each guy on Wednesday night?

Trey Burke’s role in the Michigan offense grows every game. He’s playing the point guard position as well as you could ask for from any freshman. He hits big shots, controls the game, finds his teammates and gets after it defensively. He hasn’t been immune to poor shooting games but his 4-for-15 performance at Indiana was one of his worst. Michigan needs Burke to play within the offense and make plays on the screen-and-roll. Depending on how Indiana defends him that could mean distributing the ball to Jordan Morgan down low, kicking to shooters on the wings or getting to the basket by himself and finishing at the cup.

Tim Hardaway Jr. continues to be an enigma this season. He’s shooting 22% on threes in Big Ten play but has the second most 3-point attempts in the Big Ten. This is the same player that almost single-handedly shot Michigan into the NCAA Tournament last season by connecting on 44% of his threes in conference games. He’s still scoring the ball and has improved attacking the basket, but he continues to shoot a lot of threes and not very effectively. It’s all about confidence for Hardaway, if he hits a couple early shots or picks up a few easy baskets then he’s more than capable of getting hot and changing the game with his scoring ability.

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What to Expect: Iowa

by in Opponents | January 27th, 2012

Following a 57-50 road loss to No. 25 Wisconsin, the Hoosiers look to get back to .500 in Big Ten play when they host Iowa on Sunday night in Assembly Hall. Indiana last defeated the Hawkeyes on February 4, 2009 for Tom Crean’s first conference win.

The game will be shown on the Big Ten Network (Eric Collins and Dan Bonner) and broadcast on the IU radio network (Sirius 92/XM 190):

There is, believe it or not, some positive news coming out of Indiana’s loss on Thursday night to the Badgers. Indiana’s defense, which was a fair point for criticism during the Hoosiers’ three-game losing streak, is trending in the right direction. It hasn’t been a sizable jump, but the metrics have moved. Indiana is out of the basement — they’re now tenth — in opponent points per possession. The Hoosiers are eighth in defensive effective field goal percentage. And their absurdly high opponent free throw rate of a season ago (52.2 in league play) is no longer a glaring weakness.

Iowa is a team that presents an opportunity for the Hoosiers to continue their recent improved play on D if they come out with the intensity and focus exhibited in Madison. The Hawkeyes, who are 3-5 in Big Ten play, are coming off a home loss to Nebraska on Thursday. Their reliance on the 3-point shot is minimal, so guarding dribble penetration, points in the paint and locking down the defensive boards are three factors that loom large.

Iowa is currently the worst defensive team in the Big Ten in large part because they’re allowing opponents to shoot 56.5 percent on 2-point field goals. Their defensive turnover percentage (16.5) and defensive rebounding percentage (35.2) are both in the bottom three of the league. Rather than settling from the perimeter, looking for Cody Zeller and driving the ball into the lane like we saw in Madison should be an effective way to attack.

MEET THE HAWKEYES

A pair of guards — Matt Gatens and Roy Devyn Marble — are the two Hawkeyes scoring in double figures. Gatens is easily Iowa’s most efficient offensive player. He’s hitting 53.3 percent of his twos and while he can step out and hit the three, is most effective when attacking the basket. The same goes for Marble, an athletic sophomore who rarely looks for a shot on the perimeter but uses ability to penetrate to get himself to the foul line.

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Balanced Badgers pose challenge for Hoosiers

by in Opponents | January 26th, 2012

Last year, Jordan Taylor was a Hoosier killer.

The Wisconsin guard ruined two upset attempts by Indiana by scoring a combined 67 points in two meetings last season. In the game at Assembly Hall, Taylor went off for 39 points and hit 7-of-8 attempts from 3-point range.

While he has only scored more than 20 points once this season — a loss to Michigan State — Taylor will still be a focal point for the Hoosiers’ defense on Thursday night.

But the key to Wisconsin’s success might actually be the play of its rarely mentioned role players, including forward Jared Berggren.

Berggren, a 6-10 senior, averaged only 2.4 points in 6.9 minutes per game for the Badgers last season, but he has emerged as the second scorer Wisconsin so desperately needs.

With the departure of Jon Leuer, coach Bo Ryan and the Badgers struggled early this season to find a consistent inside scorer. Berggren can play both inside and on the perimeter, and he’s averaging 11 points and five rebounds per game in nearly 27 minutes.

“Berggren provides more athleticism than he gets credit for,” Indiana coach Tom Crean said in a release. “He is a terrific shot blocker and rebounder based on his length and his athleticism.”

The No. 25 Badgers (16-5, 5-3) have four other players scoring between 6.5 and 9.7 points per game.

One of the main reasons for Wisconsin’s balance is Taylor’s willingness to give up the ball and find the open man. Taylor is averaging 4.4 assists per game, compared to only 1.5 turnovers per contest.

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What to Expect: Wisconsin

by in Opponents | January 25th, 2012

Following a solid 73-54 win over Penn State on Sunday at Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers will travel to the Kohl Center on Thursday night for a meeting with No. 25 Wisconsin. Indiana last won in Madison on January 25, 1998.

The game will be shown on the ESPN2 (Dave O’Brien and Stephen Bardo) and broadcast on the IU radio network:

If Indiana hopes to reverse a two-game road skid in Big Ten play, the Hoosiers must do so against the Big Ten’s hottest team over the past two weeks. After many questioned Wisconsin’s ability to finish in the upper tier of the conference, Bo Ryan’s club responded with a four-game winning streak and a return to the top 25.

So what’s led to the turnaround in Madison? A return to form by point guard Jordan Taylor, last week’s Big Ten player of the week, paired with one of the country’s elite defenses. No team in the conference imposes its style of play on the opposition more effectively than the Badgers. Wisconsin is playing the slowest tempo (average of 58.8 possessions per game) and is also giving up second fewest points per possession — 0.96 — in league play.

By comparison, the Hoosiers play the third fastest pace in the conference at 66.5 possessions per game. Tom Crean talked about the importance of his team valuing each possession on his radio show Monday night and this game, perhaps more than any other, will bring that storyline to the forefront.

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