Pomeroy Preview: Penn State

  • 12/27/2010 11:49 am in

As Alex tweeted earlier this morning, AccuScore (83 percent), RealTimeRPI (70.4 percent) and Pomeroy (76 percent) all favor the Hoosiers this evening. And as ChronicHoosier added, Vegas is favoring Indiana by 6.5 to 7 points. Penn State (7-4) just lost at home to Maine (184th in Pomeroy’s ratings) by 10. The Nittany Lions only managed 39 points in a loss to Maryland earlier this season.

So, on paper, this is a game the Hoosiers are trending towards a W — especially with this being a home game. But as we saw with last week’s trip to Vegas, being favored and actually winning are often two different things.

Yet, this might be the perfect team for Indiana to get back on track with their shooting percentages from both the field and 3-point land. Penn State is 189th in defensive eFG percentage (49.5 percent) and among the worst teams in the nation (300th) in defending the three (38.9 percent). If Jordan Hulls can get good looks early and Christian Watford is also able to establish himself from the onset, it might give the Hoosiers some early momentum — which could be crucial after the Vegas bombs.

Penn State doesn’t get to the line all that much (274th in free-throw rate), so that may work, in part, to combat Indiana’s tendency to put its opponent on the line at a high rate.

Now, the Nittany Lions are still in the top third in adjusted offensive efficiency (72nd, just a little behind Indiana at 67th) and defensive efficiency (102nd), so it’s not as if this team is of the South Carolina State variety.

But it’s a matchup the Hoosiers could exploit to get pick up their 10th win of the season and get off to a 1-0 start in what promises to be a challenging Big Ten slate.

Filed to:

  • Anonymous

    This one’s not too difficult to figure out—stop Talor Battle and you’re in pretty good shape. Now, does IU have anyone who can do that?

  • JerryCT

    Tonya Harding ???

    lets try Mike Santa.

    OK, ok lets try a press the entire game

    Pritchard blocked his shot last year maybe TP ………… Rivers, WS, VO ???

    Daniel Moore ?

    OK who am leaving out ? ……………

  • JerryCT

    Tonya Harding ???

    lets try Mike Santa.

    OK, ok lets try a press the entire game

    Pritchard blocked his shot last year maybe TP ………… Rivers, WS, VO ???

    Daniel Moore ?

    OK who am leaving out ? ……………

  • JerryCT

    It will be interesting to see what changes CTC has to deliver since vegas.

    We might see JH and DM on the floor at the same time and maybe a VO start.

  • MillaRed

    I say throw JR at him, sub VO and throw him at him. Otherwise zone and favor his side.

    Emphasize the JR and VO energy at this end of the floor for 40 minutes and we win by 12.

  • Aceman_Mujezinovic_07

    ZONE!

    Absolute must win! CTC does not want to listen to all of us complain if IU loses to PSU at home! And recruits don’t want to see IU lose to a team like PSU at home either.

  • JerryCT

    Damn ! Millared & Aceman ……………………… you were supposed to be tricked into listing Hulls, Jones or Creek ………… then again ………….. sounds like you have seen enough of that

  • MillaRed

    If Hulls matches up with Battle, I will assume the IU basketball head
    coaching position at 8:00 AM Tuesday morning.

  • HoosierFromCT

    we wont win

  • Anonymous

    We better win this game. I’ve spent all day fiddling with desktop computer issues, wireless router issues, etc, etc. I’m in need of a win and several drinks. Otherwise, I’m bound to break something.

  • SHEEHEYisApimp

    We win IF the following happens:
    1. Less than 12 turnovers
    2. CW, JH, DE all have double figure point totals
    3. VO and Sheehey have more minutes played than Pritch
    4. Last but not least….We score more points than PSU

  • Diesel

    Anyone else a little surprised we are trying to turn Jordy Hulls into someone he isn’t? It’s almost like we are trying to feature him as a primary offensive weapon. Let’s see, he has a good shooting % so if we can just get him to shoot more, that ought to be a simple way to score more. Not sure it works that way. Part of the reason he shoots such a good percentage is he takes good shots. Now if we took that principle as a team, I think we might be on to something. I call that a simple way to score more.

    By the way, easiest way to get Hulls more shots is receiving passes from guys named Watford and Jones.

  • Anonymous

    His excellent shot selection is exactly why I’d urge Crean to run more offense for him and convince him to play more aggressively. He also passes up open looks with regularity which is a problem. He needs to take all the good looks he gets on the court. We need to run more screens to get him more good looks. His ability to decide whether or not the screen gave him sufficient space and pass or shoot could be a huge asset.

    I think Hulls should be our #2 scorer behind Watford. I think he’d compete with Watford and even surpass him on nights when he was hot from three. There’s no reason not to run more offense for a kid with good decision-making ability that can actually turn a shot down.

  • Diesel

    I think it is important to run some sets for a guy that can shoot that well, but I think being our #2 scorer is a stretch. Watford, Jones, Creek, Elston, Hulls, Oladipo from top to bottom should be our scoring tree, IMO.

  • Devin Dumas

  • kentuckyhoosier

    FAIR ENOUGH

  • SHEEHEYisApimp

    Starting Lineup and Subs (in my humble opinion of course)
    PG: Hulls – Rivers
    SG: Creek – VJ3
    SF: Watford – Sheehey
    PF: Elston – Oladipo
    C: Capo – DANIEL MOORE (or anyone OTHER than Pritch)

    I guess if things got bad…Pritch could play. VJ3 should NOT be handling the ball as the PG. I love our chances tonight. Assembly Hall should return some of the lost confidence from the Vegas trip. I see a HOOSIER VICORY on the horizon….final score 68-56

  • MillaRed

    Just curious SheeheyisApimp, are you new to ITH or are you known by another name? Because I really am concerned that Will Sheehey truly is a pimp. He is smiling all the time and well, never mind.

  • WestCoast Hoosier

    Unfortunately, having watched the games in Vegas (and I really hate to say this), I think Maurice Creek is a liability at some times. He just doesn’t have the lateral speed or strength to push off and get in front of an offensive player. Even if you put him on someone who is slower, with all of the switching on defense, he will inevitably be exposed.

    And I’m not “hating” on him or anybody. I’m just trying to think of what is best for him and the team. I think Creek demonstrated NBA potential last year before he was hurt. Beyond that, from what I’ve seen, Creek is a nice guy, a high character guy – a really great kid — and I really want to see him back to where he was last year and beyond. In fact, I’d love to see him progress and play in the NBA (wouldn’t we all?). But I think the best way to get there may be working on more strengthening his leg and lateral movement first. I’m not a trainer, but the trainer’s office is where I’d be looking for answers for him.

    And I disagree with what seems to be conventional wisdom that he’ll only get better if he plays a lot. In fact, I would go so far as to say it sometimes seems to me to be unfair to HIM to stick him out there. Right now he is watching guys go by him that he would have stopped easily before the injury, and that has to be tough on him. Plus we don’t have the help defense underneath to cover for him.

    Then, I think he presses on offense and the result isn’t what we want to see for him.

    In the Colorado game, when Crean substituted him and Jones at the end of the game, his guy went right by him twice. It killed the IU run and it was basically game over.

    Again, not Creek’s fault. I’d blame that on Crean. I don’t think Crean should have stuck him in there then and I’m not sure why Crean did that. I am not generally critical of Crean’s substitution patterns and I generally like that he keeps fresh bodies in there and spreads the time around, but that one just mystified me.

    As to VJ, his game is short range floaters and penetration. He isn’t super fast, but he is deceptive with his quickness. But I think he has to learn not to try to bull his way through defenses that are locked and loaded for him to come down the lane. He has to learn to pass sometimes to freeze the help defenders and give himself some more open shots.

    Ditto Watford. Move the ball, guys!

  • WestCoast Hoosier

    Unfortunately, having watched the games in Vegas (and I really hate to say this), I think Maurice Creek is a liability at some times. He just doesn’t have the lateral speed or strength to push off and get in front of an offensive player. Even if you put him on someone who is slower, with all of the switching on defense, he will inevitably be exposed.

    And I’m not “hating” on him or anybody. I’m just trying to think of what is best for him and the team. I think Creek demonstrated NBA potential last year before he was hurt. Beyond that, from what I’ve seen, Creek is a nice guy, a high character guy – a really great kid — and I really want to see him back to where he was last year and beyond. In fact, I’d love to see him progress and play in the NBA (wouldn’t we all?). But I think the best way to get there may be working on more strengthening his leg and lateral movement first. I’m not a trainer, but the trainer’s office is where I’d be looking for answers for him.

    And I disagree with what seems to be conventional wisdom that he’ll only get better if he plays a lot. In fact, I would go so far as to say it sometimes seems to me to be unfair to HIM to stick him out there. Right now he is watching guys go by him that he would have stopped easily before the injury, and that has to be tough on him. Plus we don’t have the help defense underneath to cover for him.

    Then, I think he presses on offense and the result isn’t what we want to see for him.

    In the Colorado game, when Crean substituted him and Jones at the end of the game, his guy went right by him twice. It killed the IU run and it was basically game over.

    Again, not Creek’s fault. I’d blame that on Crean. I don’t think Crean should have stuck him in there then and I’m not sure why Crean did that. I am not generally critical of Crean’s substitution patterns and I generally like that he keeps fresh bodies in there and spreads the time around, but that one just mystified me.

    As to VJ, his game is short range floaters and penetration. He isn’t super fast, but he is deceptive with his quickness. But I think he has to learn not to try to bull his way through defenses that are locked and loaded for him to come down the lane. He has to learn to pass sometimes to freeze the help defenders and give himself some more open shots.

    Ditto Watford. Move the ball, guys!

  • Kelin CreDavis

    It will be interesting to see if:
    + Coach sticks with the same starting five
    + Will we press/trap while we are up or to pick up the tempo
    + Do we do more off ball stuff?
    + Will Crean adjust the Offense he is running based on personnel
    + Will I be in a better mood after this game than the last two.

  • JerryCT

    Very perceptive Diesel. I am one of those thinking we need an offense that is screener/passing/shooting instead of dribbling/driving/offmyleg. I support the off ball screens for Hulls so he gets more shots……………… maybe he is not cut out for this responsibility you say ………hmmmmmmmmmmmm …. possible

  • what did u break

  • SHEEHEYisApimp

    I’m the poster formerly known as JamesHardy…after watching Sheehey, I’m convinced he’s a PIMP! 😉