What to Expect: James Madison

  • 03/20/2013 10:27 pm in

032013erIndiana tips off the NCAA Tournament on Friday as a No. 1 seed for the first time since 1993. The Hoosiers will play the James Madison Dukes, champions of the Colonial Athletic Association. The Dukes advanced to the second round of the tournament with a 68-55 win over LIU-Brooklyn on Wednesday night.

The game will be broadcast on TBS at approximately 4:10 p.m. ET with Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg and Tracy Wolfson on the call:

With six days of rest, Indiana will return to the court on Friday to begin what it hopes will be a deep run into the NCAA Tournament. The circumstances of this year’s tournament appearance are quite different from a season ago. The Hoosiers aren’t being picked by anyone to lose their first game as was the case last year with New Mexico State. Nate Silver of The New York Times puts the probability of IU advancing past the first game at 98.5 percent, the second highest winning probability among second round games.

First up for the Hoosiers is James Madison, which will be facing just its fourth top 100 Ken Pomeroy opponent this season. The teams share one common opponent: North Dakota State. The Hoosiers beat the Bison 87-61 on Nov. 12 at Assembly Hall and the Dukes fell to North Dakota State 66-44 on Nov. 21 on a neutral court in Pittsburgh.

PERSONNEL

After serving a suspension in the first half of James Madison’s win over LIU-Brooklyn, the teams’s leading scorer, senior Rayshawn Goins (pictured), will be available for all 40 minutes on Friday afternoon. Goins was arrested Sunday night and university policy later determined that he would have to watch from the sidelines for the first half as his teammates opened the NCAA Tournament. Fortunately for James Madison, his absence wasn’t much of a detriment and after leading by one at halftime, the Dukes took control down the stretch for a comfortable 13-point lead. Goins uses 27.4 percent of his team’s possessions and averages 12.7 points on 41.1 percent shooting. He’s the team’s leading rebounder on both ends (8.9 OR% and 22.6 DR%), but at 6-foot-6, is going to give up plenty of size to Indiana’s front line.

As is the case frequently at the mid-major level and below, size on the front line is scarce and that’s certainly the case with James Madison. With Goins unavailable to start, the Dukes started five players who are listed as guards against LIU-Brooklyn. The team’s second leading scorer, A.J. Davis, is a taller guard at 6-foot-6 that loves to shoot the three. Davis has hoisted 184 threes this season and has connected 69 times for 37.5 percent. He was hot on Wednesday night, hitting four of his attempts from distance to finish with a team-high 20 points. Devon Moore, a native of Columbus, Ohio, has multiple 20-point games under his belt and is also the team’s leading assist man (32.3 assist rate).

Freshman Andre Nation, another big guard at 6-foot-5, turned in arguably his best all-around game of the season against LIU-Brooklyn with 14 points, seven rebounds, five blocks and four assists. Nation hit 6-of-12 shots, but came into the game shooting just 42.3 percent. His primary strength lies in his defensive ability. His steal rate (3.6) and block rate (5.5) are team highs. Charles Cooke, a 6-foot-6 freshman guard, turned in just his sixth game in double figures with 15 points against LIU-Brooklyn. Cooke is typically a poor shooter, particularly from the perimeter where he’s hitting just 28.7 percent of his attempts.

POMEROY PREVIEW

Note: The below chart list national ranks prior to Wednesday’s game.

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James Madison plays a much more deliberate pace than Indiana, averaging just 64.5 possessions per game. The Dukes actually led the Colonial defensively from a points per possession perspective, allowing league opponents to score just .97 points per trip. Their league, however, was just the 19th best in the country according to the KenPom ratings, and the Dukes actually stole a bid by winning the conference tournament after finishing just fourth in the regular season standings.

One strength for James Madison is taking care of the ball. JMU is turning it over on just 17.2 percent of its possessions. The rest of the offensive profile doesn’t read like one capable of keeping up with the nation’s best offense if the game turns into an up-and-down affair. James Madison shoots just 33.3 percent on threes, a shade over 46 percent on twos and doesn’t get to the foul line nearly as frequently as IU.

Defensively, James Madison ranks just 235th nationally at defending the three and is foul prone with an opponent free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of close to 40 percent. With Indiana ranking second nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and seventh in free throw rate, the challenge of attempting to slow down the Hoosiers is a significant one for JMU.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO 

This is a game Indiana should win and do so comfortably. Goins is listed at 265 pounds and will probably attempt to move Cody Zeller away from the basket, but IU’s big man has shown the ability to face up and draw fouls going to the rim. It’s really a pick your poison predicament for JMU: Play Zeller straight up and risk foul trouble for Goins or use the double team and open up the perimeter for guys like Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls to get back on track.

As I wrote earlier today, a key for Indiana in the tournament is limiting turnovers. James Madison does a decent job of forcing mistakes, but the resistance they’ll put up should be minimal in comparison to a team like Ohio State or Wisconsin, two of the country’s best defensive teams that were able to slow down the Hoosiers in recent weeks.

Jeff Sagarin’s predictor likes Indiana to win by 21, setting up a date with either North Carolina State or Temple in the round of 32 on Sunday in Dayton.

All tempo-free stats via KenPom.com.

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  • IUMIKE1

    If IU is to go a long way or even win it all this year in the Big Dance it shouldn’t matter which poison that JMU chooses. If JMU doesn’t try and force us into some, ” anybody but Cody “, approach I’ll be surprised and if they don’t it means that they have not been paying attention to our last few games and / or that they don’t have a clue of what they’re getting into. I’m not saying anyone on the IU staff is overlooking this first game but I have to believe that plenty of tape on NC St & Temple both have already been broken down (cause it’s not like we’re playing a powerhouse like Robert Morris, snicker, snicker couldn’t resist the door that they left open for all those that hate pUKe ) OK, IU, it’s show time….. LET’S ROLL !!

  • Miamihoosier

    I’m very happy to have an afternoon game. We’ll get two full nights rest before a very difficult 3rd round match up. I’d be surprised if we won by less than twenty, but as long as we come out of the game healthy, I really don’t care how much we win by.

  • Miamihoosier

    They don’t have any integral players over 6″6, I don’t think double teaming Cody would even slow him down….

  • jchitwood28

    Boys better be ready to play straight up man to man. Zone defense has been hurting us bad and come tournament time, the bullseye is on our back. Play like you have a chip on your shoulder…so many doubters and now here you are. Get after it and hang up the banner that you have worked so hard for. Go Hoosiers!

  • jchitwood28

    Boys better be ready to play straight up man to man. Zone defense has been hurting us bad and come tournament time, the bullseye is on our back. Play like you have a chip on your shoulder…so many doubters and now here you are. Get after it and hang up the banner that you have worked so hard for. Go Hoosiers!

  • Hoosier Pete

    This JMU team is good. They are long and rebound well. This will not be an easy game for IU — not trying to sound the alarm bell here. But, if I am IU, I wouldn’t even be thinking about NC State or Temple yet. JMU will have nothing to lose here. Andre Nation is a very smooth player for a freshman. Do I think IU will win by 15 or more? I hope so. But, I also wouldn’t be shocked if it were a bit less. Hope the Hoosiers set a good tone for a tourney run on Friday.

  • Rhino

    Did we beat Illinois solidly? Yes
    After our 360 dunks and high fives did we lose to wisky by 12? Yes
    If we win Friday lets not choke against temple/ncstate

  • Geoff_85

    He should seriously score 30 points with no problem. They would probably be smarter to double Yogi or other players on the perimeter in an effort to make them turn the ball over. As long as Indiana defends the 3 point line and has less than 20+ turnovers, this game shouldn’t be close.

  • Earl Calloway

    Any idea what time we would play on Sunday?

  • aka hoosier daddy

    I have to agree with going for the freshman and our ball handling of late has been somewhat vacant to say the least and please don’t put VO at point its just not his forte.My concern is pressing IU in the back court they really don’t have much experience there but one thing ive noticed is Jeremy Hollowell seems to be getting his legs and confidence at the right time and thats great.CWAT,jordy and will have to step up plus VO needs to keep his head in the game and do what he does so well defend and creat without the ball.it will all fall into place once the butterflies are gone and then the IU we know and love will come ALIVE….how sweet it is

  • SCHoosier

    I consider any other team a threat until the Hoosiers prove other-wise…that said if IU doesn’t waltz thru this one..they should have to spend the rest of the semester at the Gnawbone branch campus!:) Seriously..this is a good game to get some tempo and game feel back. That 6-6 265 guy would be good in a bar fight..but showed only a 1 inch vertical last night. Go Hoosiers.

  • HoosierTrav

    I see us playing NC State in the second round and having it turn out a lot like last years Kentucky vs Iowa State game. they will hang close but fizzle out near the end with foul trouble and winded players. They have the ability to beat anybody though. CJ Leslie is a stud.

  • HoosierTrav

    I see us playing NC State in the second round and having it turn out a lot like last years Kentucky vs Iowa State game. they will hang close but fizzle out near the end with foul trouble and winded players. They have the ability to beat anybody though. CJ Leslie is a stud.

  • Eastwood88_2

    I was losing sleep about us being the first 16 to lose to a one. Really no joke. Last night i slept like a baby. That big man will foul out in no time. Zeller with 25/10. Possibly by half. Bench will get mins for the last time this year. Hulls will get hus grove back. One game at a time!

  • iuoiu

    Well they are a CAA team, and those schools have a habit of making noise in the tournament (although that did take a hit when VCU bolted to the A10 this year). I’m not worried here though.

  • IUGuard12

    Looking forward to the Hoosiers this afternoon. Please don’t play zone defense and let JM hit threes all day. Get on the boards and blow em out early, let the bench get in the game for once. Bucknell over Butler and Davidson over Marquette. Let the Madness begin and bring on NC State or Temple. Go Hoosiers.

  • WatchingYogi_atYogis

    In a tournament with as much parity as this one, where you might play it ten times and get six to seven national champions with our Hoosiers winning it once maybe twice, a couple of things are apparent to me. Sometimes the last team left gets there because of a heroic effort from one of it’s stars, Anthony Davis, Kemba Walker and Carmelo Anthony immediately come to mind. But as bright as those stars have shined in college basketball fan’s collective memories, I’d be willing to bet that if you went back and looked at all of the successful teams, you’d find far more role players that have stepped up their game, their contribution, their consistency or added something that they hadn’t shown before that helped put their team over the top. And I hate to say it, but after watching the 30 for 30 about the amazing 1983 run of NC State, seeing fortune smile upon them time and time again as they made their run, before they seized the moment themselves, the champion will have gotten lucky a couple of times this year. A few missed free throws, costly turnovers or inexcusable fouls that got them back in a game they shouldn’t have really won, I think that’s what it will take.

    I hope Cody and VO dig deep and show us another level we haven’t seen. I hope that we find something even more in Watford, Yogi, Hulls, Will, Remy or Hollowell. And I hope we get some breaks. Kentucky didn’t need breaks last year. But I don’t see any Kentucky this year, including our own team, which I regard as the best in the nation.

  • AJ_IU_ColtsFan

    Ok, please, IU Men’s Hoosiers:
    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.
    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.

    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.

    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.

    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.

    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.

    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament….

    … yeah, this one should be a cakewalk. You’re facin’ a 16 seed, fer cryin’ out loud. But dammit, there are times fans like us suddenly get a frisson of paranoia. Please, our favorite basketball team, don’t overlook any team in the tournament! We know you’re good, we just… well… it’s been such a long time, and as excited as we all are, we’re also a bit apprehensive since it’s win-or-go-home time. Just do what you all do best. And please, for everyone’s sake: don’t overlook any team in the tournament!

  • AJ_IU_ColtsFan

    Ok, please, IU Men’s Hoosiers:
    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.
    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.

    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.

    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.

    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.

    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament.

    Don’t overlook any team in the tournament….

    … yeah, this one should be a cakewalk. You’re facin’ a 16 seed, fer cryin’ out loud. But dammit, there are times fans like us suddenly get a frisson of paranoia. Please, our favorite basketball team, don’t overlook any team in the tournament! We know you’re good, we just… well… it’s been such a long time, and as excited as we all are, we’re also a bit apprehensive since it’s win-or-go-home time. Just do what you all do best. And please, for everyone’s sake: don’t overlook any team in the tournament!

  • Tom S

    Great post, but I’ll disagree with one thing: Kentucky actually got, and needed, a lot of breaks last year. Almost literally. Verdell Jones unavailable or that’s a 50/50 game. Michigan State likely beats Kentucky with Branden Dawson available. Likewise North Carolina with Kendall Marshall. Shoot, even Syracuse with Fab Melo might have been a serious threat.

    But you’re absolutely right – there can’t be many off nights, and even then it will probably take a few good breaks, or at least absence of bad breaks, along the way.

  • Tom S

    Oh, and that’s not to mention the … “unusual” … back-to-back fouls on Zeller right after Davis got his second.
    Plenty of breaks for Kentucky last year.

  • WatchingYogi_atYogis

    Yeah, you are probably right. I was more just thinking that they won comfortably. We gave them one of the better runs they had and even then I thought they pulled it out fairly convincingly. Seems to be the case though, that the team that wins it gets all the credit for everything they achieved. Make your own luck and all that stuff. Teams that fall just short get discredited as finally having their luck run out.

  • WatchingYogi_atYogis

    I’ve been trying to figure this out all week, to no avail. I guess we get tip-off times after the matchups are set?

  • marcusgresham

    “Looking forward to the Hoosiers this afternoon”
    Then you’re SOL—game’s tomorrow.

  • marcusgresham

    I expect to see Jeff Howard score a basket in this game.

  • Sherronhasaheadache

    i expect JMU to get punked by the Hoosiers. we win by 30

  • IUGuard12

    Meant tomorrow….too excited!!! Love this time of year.

  • AJ_IU_ColtsFan

    Oh ho, this bodes very well for IU:

    “@DustinDopirak Of note, the shooter’s backdrop at Dayton is tight. Really tight. Huge change from what they saw last week in Chicago.”

    Large stadiums tend to throw outside shooters off. This I read about a long time ago when Steve Alford expounded on the differences in how large venues feel. But a tight sightline… oh man. I think Jordy’ll go off now.

    Here’s to hopin’.

  • AJ_IU_ColtsFan

    I dunno about IUGuard12, but *I’m* gonna be SOL… I’ve run out of fingernails already and it’s only Thursday. If I chew any harder, I’m gonna expose bone. 🙁

  • jdewitt

    Save your energy boys and play as a team and the sky is the limit.

  • larry richardson

    does anyone know if there are predetermined time slots for the games on Sunday? Not trying to jinx anything, but have an obligation i’m trying to work around…

  • Geoff_85

    Take this for what you will: when Dakich was filling in for Mike Greenberg (@espngreeny on Twitter, as he likes to remind us so much) on Mike and Mike, Mike Golic (referencing when Dakich played for Indiana) asked, “be honest…in the early rounds, you’re overlooking some of these teams” Dakich “oh, you’re overlooking the hell of out them” I think that pretty much says it all. I don’t think there is any way that you don’t overlook a James Madison team. That’s just my take.