What to Expect: Iowa

030113euIndiana returns to Assembly Hall on Saturday night to host Iowa in the first of its final two home games. The Hoosiers are coming off a 77-73 loss on Tuesday at Minnesota and the Hawkeyes are coming off a 58-48 home win over Purdue on Wednesday. Indiana won the first meeting between the two teams, 69-65, on Dec. 31 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

The game will be broadcast on BTN at 7:30 p.m. with Kevin Kugler, Jim Jackson and Stephanie White on the call:

Indiana and Iowa will both have plenty to play for when the two teams get together on Branch McCracken Court on Saturday night. The Hoosiers are looking to not only solidify a No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament, but also move a step closer to a regular season championship. The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, find themselves with 18 wins but on the wrong side of the tournament bubble and without a signature win on which to hang their hat.

Iowa is one of the league’s worst road teams with a 2-6 record in conference play. The two wins came over Penn State and Northwestern. Indiana is 6-1 at home in the Big Ten and over the past two seasons, the Hoosiers have compiled a 14-2 record in conference games at Assembly Hall.

PERSONNEL

Iowa comes into Saturday with a fairly significant injury in its backcourt as freshman Mike Gesell, the team’s third leading scorer, will be unavailable for a second straight game with a right foot injury. That means Roy Devyn Marble, the team’s point guard last season, will shift back into that role in Gesell’s absence and sophomore Josh Oglesby will likely receive his second consecutive start.

Marble, the team’s leading scorer at 14.0 points per game, will now have the difficult task of not only trying to facilitate for teammates, but also carry a significant piece of the scoring load. He’s using 24.5 percent of Iowa’s possessions, but is average from an efficiency standpoint with an effective field goal percentage of 46.3. Marble is at his best offensively when he doesn’t settle for jump shots and instead attacks the rim and either finishes, dishes off (assist rate of 20.5) or gets to the foul line.

While Oglesby will likely draw the start, he’ll likely split the minutes vacated by Gesell with freshman point guard Anthony Clemmons and senior Eric May. Oglesby, who was expected to be the team’s best shooter, has been woeful from the perimeter this season. His 126 attempts from distance are a team-high and his percentage, 26.6, is the second-worst on the team. Clemmons, who has started 13 of the team’s 28 games, is second in the Big Ten with an assist rate of 37.2, but offers little else offensively. May, who finishes well at the rim, is shooting close to 51 percent on twos.

Iowa’s frontcourt play is highlighted by Aaron White, who deserves some type of All-Big Ten recognition. White is second on the team in scoring at 13.6 points per game, leads the way in rebounding at 6.2 per game and has very few holes in his game. White is fourth best in the nation at getting to the foul line (204 attempts), rarely turns it over (12.6% turnover rate), doesn’t commit many fouls (2.1 per 40 minutes) and is shooting close to 56 percent on twos. White was one of the surprises in the league a season ago and he’s only gotten better as a sophomore.

Freshman center Adam Woodbury has started all 28 games, but has struggled to stay on the floor due to foul issues. Melsahn Basabe has returned to the starting lineup and is the team’s best defensive rebounder and shotblocker. Zach McCabe, a 6-foot-7 forward, prefers to hoist threes rather than play inside and Gabriel Olaseni, another foul prone big man who can block shots, is coming off a four-rebound performance in the win over Purdue.

POMEROY PREVIEW

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Iowa’s defense has been good enough in conference play to win games at .97 points per possession allowed, which ranks third behind Wisconsin and Ohio State. Iowa allowed close to 1.09 points per possession a season ago in Big Ten games, so the improvement is actually even better than Indiana, which is allowing .98 points per possession compared to 1.06 last season.

The offense has been a different story as the Hawkeyes are tenth in league play in effective field goal percentage and are scoring just one point per possession. Perimeter shooting has been a major deficiency as Iowa is 304th nationally in 3-point shooting. Like IU, Iowa does well as a team in getting to the line with a free throw rate of 40.7 in conference play.

Last year’s game in Assembly Hall produced a 103-89 win for Indiana and the pace at which these teams are operating suggests another high scoring game could come to fruition. Indiana is setting the league pace with 65.8 possessions per game with Iowa not far behind at 65.1 per contest.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

While Iowa has shown remarkable improvement defensively, its offense has actually regressed from last year and that leaves the Hawkeyes again staring at a finish in the bottom half of the Big Ten. While they’ve won four of their last five, a loss at Nebraska on Feb. 23 was a major setback for the program’s NCAA Tournament hopes.

With the loss to Minnesota and a chance to clinch a share of the Big Ten title looming on senior night, Indiana has plenty to play for and this team has been resilient all season when coming off a loss. The Hoosiers answered a loss to Wisconsin with a win at Northwestern and a loss at Illinois with a win at Ohio State.

Both teams have a similar profiles defensively in Big Ten games, so this one will likely come down to whether Iowa can shoot well enough to stay within range of the nation’s highest powered offense. Iowa was able to keep the game close in Iowa City, but the Hawkeyes have been shaky on the road and Indiana’s recent success at home is well-documented. Pomeroy likes Indiana to win comfortably, 81-65, with a 91 percent chance of the Hoosiers moving to 13-3 and another step closer to the program’s first Big Ten championship since 2002.

  • Neil

    If we lose this game we will probably lose the Big Ten Title. I know we won’t but I can see Iowa getting lucky hitting a bunch of 3′s and keeping it close. Just like Adrien Payne who has hit 7 three pointers this season and 6 of those in IU games.

  • MillaRed

    I expect Iowa not to have a power forward 4 years older than everyone running up and down the court running his mouth. Let’s start there.

  • http://www.facebook.com/doug.wilson.9404 Doug Wilson

    What does all this mean? BAD NEWS FOR IOWA!

  • http://www.facebook.com/doug.wilson.9404 Doug Wilson

    What does all this mean? BAD NEWS FOR IOWA!

  • WhatsUpKnight

    i’d be very surprised if they lost this one, as long as they’re not looking ahead to hte ohio st. rematch. that’s the one that really scares me, even more than the michigan road game. by the way, whoever it was that predicted they’d lose to penn st. should stand up and take a bow!! and then find the nearest horse track.

  • Eastwood88_2

    Great post! He is almost 30!

  • Earl Scheib

    Well said, Milla. I could NOT agree more. That was ridic. Still upset about it. I’m looking for Cody to have a career night tomorrow.

  • http://www.trinityoaklabs.com Hoosiergirl

    I’m preparing for a blow out win over them. Iu is going to come out hot and ticked off over the loss to MINN.

  • http://www.trinityoaklabs.com Hoosiergirl

    I’m preparing for a blow out win over them. Iu is going to come out hot and ticked off over the loss to MINN.

  • http://www.facebook.com/blair.mckee Blair McKee

    Oh, this is a must-win game. I think they know that. (If I know that, then they have to! right?) Lose this, and you have (almost for sure) lost the No. 1 seed (to Miami, Duke, Gonzaga and Kansas), and the Big Ten title (to Wis).

  • Juan

    I expect Iowa to be brutally physical with IU. The Hawkeyes won’t get away with it in AH, but they will try after watching Minny film. Speaking of physical play, Virginia must have watched the IU/Minny game before smacking Duke around last night.

  • IUMIKE1

    A team comes into a game with us with and has someone that had been coming off the bench & is not playing a large amount of minutes up to this point & is only averaging 3 or 4 points a game who is suddenly thrust into a starting role…..starting to sound familiar ?

    Think we will win this game and probably convincingly but this type of scenario, that has reared it’s ugly head more than once over the last year and half or so, is stuck in the back of mind.

  • IUMIKE1

    I just happen to know the guy that lives next door to him and he told me he got some of his mail by mistake the other day and it was his invitation to join AARP.

  • PDXHoosier

    They gave us fits the last game. I hope we get out and run

  • http://www.facebook.com/gregory.spera.3 Gregory Spera

    I don’t know what to expect from IU anymore. Watching Minnesota physically dominate us that way has shaken my belief in this team as championship material. I guess I was buying into the hype and getting pretty overconfident, but I am through expecting Indiana to win just because they have more talent than the other team. I am now taking nothing for granted. I am back to the point where I will be thrilled if they just find a way to beat Iowa.

  • MillaRed

    In hindsight Minny did what they had to do. The only way they take that game is to crawl up our backs. I understand we needed to respond to the officiating but how exactly? Sticking out our butts and swinging elbows?

    CTC is doing a great job, and IMO there was only one way to calm that game down, start throwing elbows or for him to get a technical and making a point. Neither happened but I hope it’s considered moving forward.

  • CreamandCrimson

    Basabe is capable of being physical but that’s really about it. You are right, they will have watched the tape of the Minnesota game, our Hoosiers will have as well. A lot of teams will try to bully IU, very few have the personnel like Minnesota does to get it done. The stats back that up, Iowa is 119th and 52nd in the country in offensive and defensive rebounding %. If the Hawkeyes do manage to drill us on the boards like Minnesota did, we have a big problem.

  • http://www.facebook.com/gregory.spera.3 Gregory Spera

    For once, I agree that this is not CTC’s fault. You can coach someone to be mentally tough, but you can’t coach someone to be physically tough. No amount of coaching will turn Pee Wee Herman into Mike Tyson.

  • pcantidote

    Iowa’s length and size make me nervous. If they crash the offensive glass like butler and Minnesota, it could get interesting.

  • Miamihoosier

    Iowa is in 8th place, but they might win the Big Ten next year. 6 of their 10 losses are by 4 points or less and 2 were in OT. They have one of the country’s best defenses, and they don’t lose ANYONE. Their top 6 will be 2 seniors, 2 juniors, and 2 sophomores (both 4 star players in Woodbury and Gessel)…. We better get our win in now

  • BrierBrax

    I expect Watford and Zeller to play like they take pride in representing IU instead of like Tuesday night when they backed down from the start. Cody has amends to make

  • SCHoosier

    Shame on you Milla for having such an age bias…even though Mbakwe does have grandkids.

  • SCHoosier

    I don’t care where Marble plays as long as Vic is assigned to guard him. That will result in some strange match ups and IU has to defend the 3. No reason not to dominate the boards in this game.

  • Juan

    Yes it sounds familiar and corn-fed Eliason was more than frustrating. His FG’s v. IU matched his FG’s for his previous five or six games.

  • MillaRed

    When I heard he makes the Turkey on Thanksgiving I got suspicious.

  • Oldguyy

    Actually, May is a senior.

  • CapnMike

    CTC needs to learn to fight as hard for his players in those type of overly physical games as Terrible (stare) Tubby or BadBad Bo. Those two teams have less talented players so they resort to thug tactics. I can’t stand Bill Self, but less than 3 minutes into the game at Iowa State, he gets Tee’d up and guess what. Goes into overtime with a terrible no call followed by a worse hold to shoot free throws to tie. Everybody is crying about it the next day, but they ain’t gonna take the W away and give it to Fred Hoiberg. You are the coach of the #1 team in the country, act like it, especially come tourney time. No complaints about recruits, playing time, in game coaching or sub patterns. Show them nice guys have backbone and too much is enough. Go ballistic, it’s refreshing sometimes.

  • http://www.facebook.com/gregory.spera.3 Gregory Spera

    Two votes down. So now I’ve gone too far the other way?

  • A TRAIN

    i think we take out iowa by 10+..wer at home and ticked off…the loss of gessell helps to hes gonna b a good one n had a pretty good game against us last time..i like aaron whites game very solid..marble will get double digits but will really have to work for it..i hate basabe i hope someone dunks on him..i like watchin iowas coach go nuts on the players when they do something wrong deep down i wish crean would do that every once in awhile..i think cody n vic hav big games..i really want hollowell to get mor minutes his perimeter defense isnt gr8 but improving and he always crashes the boards on both ends, with mor time i think his confidence would go up n then he could really help us…lets go hoosiers

  • Snookafly

    24-4 and 6-2 on the road in the toughest conference in the country IS championship caliber basketball. We’ll be alright, Chicken Little.

  • HoosierCruz

    “A lot of people go to college for 6 years… THEY’RE CALLED DOCTORS!”

    - David Spade (Tommy Boy)

  • marcusgresham

    OK, everyone just take a deep breath and appreciate what good basketball we’ve gotten to watch this season. I just watched Manhattan beat Fairfield 34-31.

  • marcusgresham

    He just stuck around as a favor to Tubby. They’re old high school buddies.

  • marcusgresham

    You mean the Duke team who just lost to Virginia?

  • marcusgresham

    Jordan Hulls has exactly two home games remaining in his career. I predicted before the season that he’d break the school record with 10 threes in a game. I’d look for him to shoot every time he gets the ball past half court if he’s on. Furthermore, I’d encourage it.

  • marcusgresham

    Jordan Hulls has exactly two home games remaining in his career. I predicted before the season that he’d break the school record with 10 threes in a game. I’d look for him to shoot every time he gets the ball past half court if he’s on. Furthermore, I’d encourage it.

  • Ole Man

    From now on expect teams to hack and grab Indiana every chance they get.
    One: it will get them out of their offensive rhythm.
    Two: as long as the refs let them get away with it, why not? It obviously works.

  • Eastwood88_2

    I am very puzzled by the lack of positkve comments today. Really people? Do you not believe other teams already have been trying to grab and push us after the Butler game?? The book has been out all year. When we come out physical, no one in the country can beat us. This a must win in the hall. With that said, Blue Horseshoe loves iu -14.5 and the over 146. We are scoring over 80, just have to wonder if iowa can score 60.

  • SCHoosier

    More I think about it..if we accept/blame Mbakwe’s age/maturity for the manhandling Cody got..I guess we have to also accept that he needs to stay at IU at least one more year given the age, strength and maturity of the guys he would have to compete against in the NBA next year? I mean we can’t have it both ways??

  • Florida Hoosier Girl

    LOL! They really shouldn’t have been beaten by a guy that old!

  • WatchingYogi_atYogis

    If that was according to design by Bill Self to get a T in the first three minutes that ultimately effected the final play of the game, he’s more visionary than coach. I thought earlier this year that Bill Self made a mistake by being so superlatively critical of his team after their loss at TCU that I thought it effected their confidence in the next game, that they lost, at Oklahoma. I thought he may have actually contributed to starting a slide. Of course, they won their next five games, including the overtime wins on the road against OSU and Iowa St. So maybe not? I guess my point is that you can infer a lot of storylines about coaching and try to derive lessons from them based on the results. But that doesn’t mean they are accurate. I’ve always thought that coaching demands a certain type of person, but that person can have a number of different personalities. It’s about making your personality work for you. I just don’t see Crean as the dramatic technical guy or the criticize his team disciplinarian. In his own way, I think he settles the officials down by keeping them focused on the job at hand, not theatrics. And that he settles the team down by reminding them again and again that he’s there to support them and that they are all in it together to succeed.

    Of course with that said, if he ever did reverse character and lose it on the officials, it would make quite a point.

  • CreanFaithful

    Just a shade under a deacade.

  • MillaRed

    SC, the majority of these PF/C lottery picks take years to develop in the NBA. Are you hearing Anthony Davis’ name on a regular basis on ESPN? These guys are getting drafted and being developed IN the NBA. So yes, Cody absolutely needs another year in college, but do most of them go pro anyway?? All the time. It isn’t a “both ways” scenario. Every 24 year old PF in the NBA would eat Cody for breakfast right now. 4 additional years of top of the line training.

  • PDXHoosier

    Good point. It’s all about the relationship between the coach and the players. RMK and CTC are polar opposites in this regard, but that doesn’t mean both of their styles can’t work. I think it depends more on the players/talent you have, and I think coaches would agree with me.
    CTC has lost it a few times this year on the officials, but I think his usual demeanor keeps him from getting T’d up

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