What to Expect: Iowa

  • 01/27/2012 3:51 pm in

Following a 57-50 road loss to No. 25 Wisconsin, the Hoosiers look to get back to .500 in Big Ten play when they host Iowa on Sunday night in Assembly Hall. Indiana last defeated the Hawkeyes on February 4, 2009 for Tom Crean’s first conference win.

The game will be shown on the Big Ten Network (Eric Collins and Dan Bonner) and broadcast on the IU radio network (Sirius 92/XM 190):

There is, believe it or not, some positive news coming out of Indiana’s loss on Thursday night to the Badgers. Indiana’s defense, which was a fair point for criticism during the Hoosiers’ three-game losing streak, is trending in the right direction. It hasn’t been a sizable jump, but the metrics have moved. Indiana is out of the basement — they’re now tenth — in opponent points per possession. The Hoosiers are eighth in defensive effective field goal percentage. And their absurdly high opponent free throw rate of a season ago (52.2 in league play) is no longer a glaring weakness.

Iowa is a team that presents an opportunity for the Hoosiers to continue their recent improved play on D if they come out with the intensity and focus exhibited in Madison. The Hawkeyes, who are 3-5 in Big Ten play, are coming off a home loss to Nebraska on Thursday. Their reliance on the 3-point shot is minimal, so guarding dribble penetration, points in the paint and locking down the defensive boards are three factors that loom large.

Iowa is currently the worst defensive team in the Big Ten in large part because they’re allowing opponents to shoot 56.5 percent on 2-point field goals. Their defensive turnover percentage (16.5) and defensive rebounding percentage (35.2) are both in the bottom three of the league. Rather than settling from the perimeter, looking for Cody Zeller and driving the ball into the lane like we saw in Madison should be an effective way to attack.

MEET THE HAWKEYES

A pair of guards — Matt Gatens and Roy Devyn Marble — are the two Hawkeyes scoring in double figures. Gatens is easily Iowa’s most efficient offensive player. He’s hitting 53.3 percent of his twos and while he can step out and hit the three, is most effective when attacking the basket. The same goes for Marble, an athletic sophomore who rarely looks for a shot on the perimeter but uses ability to penetrate to get himself to the foul line.

Eric May, who has started all 21 games but is averaging just 20 minutes, can also be effective off the dribble but rarely looks for his shot. Bryce Cartwright, who lost his starting job to Marble and battled hamstring injuries earlier in the season, leads the team with 80 assists but is shooting just 36 percent on 2-point field goals and 17 percent on threes. Freshman Josh Oglesby provides McCaffery with a shooter off the bench that can knock down shots if left alone.

Up front, sophomore Melshan Basabe is one of the better defensive rebounders and shot blockers in the Big Ten, but has struggled to find consistency offensively. He’s hitting just 50 percent of his field goal attempts compared to 57 percent last season. Freshman Aaron White has been among the conference’s top five newcomers and is Iowa’s third leading scorer (9.7 ppg) in a sixth man role. White is an effective rebounder on both ends and gets to the line at a very effective clip (56.6 free throw rate). Zach McCabe, a 6-foot-7 sophomore, crashes the offensive glass hard and can also knock down perimeter looks.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

Pomeroy has IU running away from Iowa in a high-scoring affair — 89-70 — and gives the Hoosiers a 92% chance of winning.

Given the high number of possessions both teams are averaging, this game will be a stark contrast to the Wisconsin game. The area where Iowa can really pose problems is dribble penetration and in transition. The difference between the Hawkeyes and a team like Penn State with Tim Frazier is the volume of guys that will attempt to get into the lane. Gatens, Cartwright and Marble are all capable of breaking Indiana down off the dribble, so help defense is going to be critical.

QUICK FACTS ON IOWA

All-time series: Indiana leads 94-73
Location: Iowa City, Iowa
Student Enrollment: 30,328
Established: 1847

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  • eph521

    Now THIS is a must-win game.

    And if this team needs any extra motivation, all they have to do is think of the last few years when Iowa has owned us… even when the Hawkeyes couldn’t beat anyone else. Time to return the favor.

  • Maybe Zeller will get to play in this one. That’d be nice. If Basabe doesnt do another 25-10 or whatever he did to us last year we should be OK.

    If NW is PU’s cryptonite then Iowa is ours. Actually everyone is our cryptonite the last few years, but we were struggling with the hawkeyes even before our dumpster dive post-Sampson.

  • iulineman

    Agree it is time we return the favor for a lot of these teams.

    GO IU!!!!

  • Kokomo_Joe

    I would agree that this is a must-win game.

    4-5 in Big 10 play and losing 4 of the last 5 is stinging. 4-6 in conference and losing 5 of 6 including L’s against Minn and Iowa would hurt!

    17-5 or 16-6?

  • Kokomo_Joe

    I would agree that this is a must-win game.

    4-5 in Big 10 play and losing 4 of the last 5 is stinging. 4-6 in conference and losing 5 of 6 including L’s against Minn and Iowa would hurt!

    17-5 or 16-6?

  • SCHoosier

    No walk-overs left given IU’s up and down performance. Iowa embarassed them at Iowa last year..so pay-back due.Match-ups will be pretty good if Gatens doesn’t go off on the 3pt line. Marble seems much improved. IU plays like they did at WIS they win..with or without the refs screwin’ up the game.

  • Drewp1

    It be nice if IU can dictate the style of play during games. I know its Wisconsins style to play slow, but why play to their style. Easier said than done, I guess. I think they will destroy Iowa.

  • jaywiz

    Heading up to Chicago for work this weekend. Where is the best place in town to watch the game?

  • Holidaymatt

    Joe’s Bar on Weed St.

  • Joe’s Bar on Weed Street. 

  • HoosierDavey

    However, they have seemingly owned us the past couple years (when they shouldn’t have).  Hopefully, this is another past hurdle we can get over.

  • CH

    can anyone tell me when was the last time CTC got a technical

  • vgBMG

    I don’t know the answer to your question; but, he may decide to receive one Sunday  if Ted Valentine is one of the refs again.

    My question: Does Steve Welmer still referee B10 games?  If not, apparently the B10 is trying to lower the bar.  I have not noticed him around anywhere.  He is one of the best that I have seen.

  • ufo33

    IU is home.
    We win.

  • ufo33

    The Iowa Mens clothes saleman will strike a dapper pose in his suit on the sidelines..
    But the Hoosiers will win at home

  • Miles Noe

    Agreed this is a must win, especially with next weeks schedule of @Mich and @PUke, depending on how we come out in those games, it could be a long week for us! 

  • IUCubFan

    Anyone know how to get a copy of ESPNHS Indiana edition magazine.  I purchased a copy and was notified they couldn’t ship anymore.  Would love to have a copy.  Thanks!

  • Mister Slippery

    At this point we can’t just hope to win the gimmes. If we’re legitimately a Top 25 team, we need to show by winning more than just home games against cellar dwellers. That means Michigan and Purdue on the road. Is that hard? Yes – good teams win games that are hard to win.

  • SCHoosier

    sounds like a “happy” hour place to me:) If the Hoosiers get beat..u probably won’t care.

  • Tom S

    Looks like he retired a couple of years ago fro medical reasons, not long after a broken foot.

  • Tom S

    Looks like he retired a couple of years ago fro medical reasons, not long after a broken foot.

  • JerryCT

    As usual defense will be the key. Iowa knows they can beat us, have a good coach, they work very hard , they cut hard, set hard screens and Cartwright can beat Hulls off the dribble.

    I expect a very tough win but not without some scary moments

  • Good resource here if you want to drill down on data for specific referees:

    http://statsheet.com/mcb/referees/browse

  • Joepop

    Kirkwoods is pretty cool also, saw the kentucky game there the atmosphere was unbelievable

  • Joepop

    Kirkwoods is pretty cool also, saw the kentucky game there the atmosphere was unbelievable

  • hoosierbred

    Yeah, Kirkwooods is a nice place. Good IU atmosphere and good food.

  • hoosierbred

    I’m not sure he has one since coming to IU. As much as I like him as a coach and person, I think he needs to be more assertive with the officials. The Izzos, Ryans and Mattas are taking advantage of his laid back approach to the officials. Maybe he works the officials more than I realize. I know he supports the players 100%; but a technical would reinforce that support whenever the calls are obviously one-sided. 

  • He did a couple games in a row, last year or the year before. Trying to get through to his players, wake them up. Got kicked out at least once

  • Coffee Shop in Topeka has them…..Not sure how it helps you, depending on your location, but thought I’d throw it out there.(:

  • IUCubFan

    Is Coffee Shop the name of the establishment? I live in Newburgh, near Evansville. Was hoping to see if I could call and see about ordering a copy.

  • Actually, it beside the Coffee Shop in the Pharmacy. Here is their website – 
    http://www.topekapharmacy.net/

  • The_Real_Assembly_Hall

    I think Indiana comes out mad, upset, and ready to take their frustrations out on someone. Iowa happens to be in the cross fire at this point.

  • The_Real_Assembly_Hall

    Kansas?

  • Indiana.(: The real Topeka. LOL Also known as Amish Country, Indiana

  • The_Real_Assembly_Hall

    I knowwwwww. I was being sarcastic. {÷¢)

  • IUCubFan

    Thanks! I will check it out.