March Watch: A No. 2 seed for Indiana?

  • 01/22/2013 1:02 pm in

IUSMSith0016

Selection Sunday is a little more than seven weeks away and Indiana is nearly one-third of the way through the Big Ten slate, so it’s time for another edition of March Watch, a look at where the Hoosiers stand in terms of the NCAA Tournament.

Overview

Indiana’s overall resume is quite strong with a 16-2 record and 4-1 mark in the Big Ten, the nation’s toughest conference. The surprising home loss to Wisconsin probably knocked them down two to three spots on Joe Lunardi’s s-curve. As of Monday morning, the ESPN bracketologist has IU at No. 7 on his s-curve. In our last update, IU was No. 6 with Lunardi.

Nitty Gritty Profile

· Record: 16-2 (4-1 Big Ten)
· RPI: 14
· SOS: 21
· Home Record: 11-1
· Away Record: 3-0
· Neutral Court Record: 2-1
· vs. RPI Top 50: 3-1
· vs. RPI Top 51-100: 3-1

As the Big Ten season continues to move along, Indiana’s tournament profile should continue to gain strength in a couple of key areas. In our update 13 days ago, IU’s strength of schedule was 43. It’s now up to 21 and on the rise with a backloaded conference schedule. The RPI number is also up two spots.

Still, when looking at resumes for seeding purposes at this point in time, it’s impossible to ignore that 10 of IU’s wins are over teams outside of the RPI top 100.

Bracket Projections

· ESPN Bracketology (Joe Lunardi): 2 seed (South) vs. Long Beach State in Lexington
· CBS Sports (Jerry Palm): 2 seed (South) vs. College of Charleston in Lexington
· Sports Illustrated (Andy Glockner): 3 seed (Midwest) vs. Stephen F. Austin in Dayton

Two of the three brackets we track have IU as a No. 2 seed with Andy Glockner of SI with the Hoosiers as a No. 3. However, Glockner’s placement of the Hoosiers may be the most favorable as he placed them in the Midwest region which plays through Indianapolis. The South region is in Arlington, Texas, which is obviously favorable for Indiana fans to travel. What’s interesting is that the Bracket Matrix, which aggregates just about every projection available on the Web, has the Hoosiers as the last No. 2 seed. Crashing the Dance, which uses a seeding model similar to the selection committee, has IU as the top No. 3 seed.

Tournament Sites

· First round: Dayton
· Second, third round: Auburn Hills, Austin, Dayton, Kansas City, Lexington, Philadelphia, Salt Lake City, San Jose
· Regional: Arlington, Indianapolis, Los Angeles, Washington D.C.
· Final Four: Atlanta

Filed to:

  • I have to agree with the 2/3 seed prediction. Playing in the B1G is awesome, but it’s so good that the teams all beat up on one another. Realistically the conference could have 7 teams in the dance – one at each seed, 1-7! That would be pretty cool!

  • I have to agree with the 2/3 seed prediction. Playing in the B1G is awesome, but it’s so good that the teams all beat up on one another. Realistically the conference could have 7 teams in the dance – one at each seed, 1-7! That would be pretty cool!

  • I think they still have a chance for a #1 seed, most notably if they win the B1G. IU has shown that they will play to the level of their competition, so even though these games are frustrating against NW, Wisc, ect, when they play the teams like UM, MSU I believe they will step up their level accordingly.

    I don’t think they’ll deserve a 3 seed.

    Do the SOS and RPI numbers adjust as the teams change through the year or does it reflect at the time of play? For example, Bulter was unranked when they beat IU but now they are a top-ten team. Likewise UNC was top 15 (I think) when IU crushed them but have since fallen off the map.

  • CB

    RPI numbers adjust. Trouble with the RPI is it punishes teams in good conferences. The rating is simply your record times the record of the teams you play times the records of the teams they play. If everyone is really good, but play each other and beat them up, the RPI will be lower. If IU continues to play at the same level they are now, their RPI will go down because Minnesota, Wiscy, and Penn State are all going to rack up losses in the B1G.

    Honestly, I think the NCAA gets this now and no longer gives it the weight it used to.

  • A BIG 10 Final Four!

  • A BIG 10 Final Four!

  • Shoot, man, that is looking possible. IU, MSU, and BOTH UM’s. Not crazy.

  • sloan screen #45

    I dont think you can even begin to make a prediction yet. The meat of the schedule doesnt begin til sunday (MSU). I dont know if anybody in the country has a tougher final 12 games than the Hoosiers. Could be a 1 clear down to a 4 .

  • Right now we are definitely trending down. That will continue to be the case until we put together two solid halves of basketball and quit coming off the gas to open the 2nd half.

    Would help if Sheehey could become his aggressive self again and Remy would return from planet Terrible he disappeared to about a month ago.

    Quite frankly, I MISS YOU VERDELL JONES III!!!!!

  • AJ_IU_ColtsFan

    While a 3rd of the season has passed already, I actually think it’s too early to judge whether this team will get a 2 seed, or higher. Or lower. Oddly enough, this team is still developing in a way that predicting either improvement or implosion isn’t out of line. So while some teams it’s obvious where they’ll place, for IU it’s still up in the air. It’s just that kind of year.

    And yeah, I hope to God they don’t implode. Thankfully, I also don’t think that’s likely; I think it’s far more likely they’ll improve. They just seem to be in a bit of a slump right now, nothing more. But again, we’re just going to have to wait and see. These things are impossible to predict ahead of time.

  • AJ_IU_ColtsFan

    While a 3rd of the season has passed already, I actually think it’s too early to judge whether this team will get a 2 seed, or higher. Or lower. Oddly enough, this team is still developing in a way that predicting either improvement or implosion isn’t out of line. So while some teams it’s obvious where they’ll place, for IU it’s still up in the air. It’s just that kind of year.

    And yeah, I hope to God they don’t implode. Thankfully, I also don’t think that’s likely; I think it’s far more likely they’ll improve. They just seem to be in a bit of a slump right now, nothing more. But again, we’re just going to have to wait and see. These things are impossible to predict ahead of time.

  • SCHoosier

    Lot of hoops to play before we worry about seeds. That can, of course can be good or bad.

  • BrierBrax

    we did a really really bad job “gaming” the RPI in our non-conference scheduling efforts. It’s possible to play bad teams while not killing your RPI at the same time. I wonder if some stiffer early season competition would have gotten this team to a point where they’re not struggling in the second half vs B1G teams like they are right now

  • BrierBrax

    we did a really really bad job “gaming” the RPI in our non-conference scheduling efforts. It’s possible to play bad teams while not killing your RPI at the same time. I wonder if some stiffer early season competition would have gotten this team to a point where they’re not struggling in the second half vs B1G teams like they are right now

  • DeeLyle

    Please give it a rest. I’ve been reading this same type of comment for 3 months now. You can’t do anything to change the schedule. Our toughest games are ahead of us. Just let the darn thing play out and stop griping about the early schedule.

  • calbert40

    IU doesn’t make its schedule each offseason. This season’s schedule was built a couple years ago, with a couple exceptions (UK refusing to play us). Contracts are typically written to play a team home and home or solely in B’Town every other season for 4 seasons, etc.

    The point is that the heavy lifting done in making this schedule was probably made when IU was struggling to win any games. I know that Glass and CTC expected us to compete by now, but when we made this schedule, it was important to build in some “confidence boosters.”

    I expect this trend to change over the next couple of seasons.

  • The loss to Wisconsin at home hurts, but come back and beat them at their place & take care of business at home the rest of the season and they’ll be back to a #1 seed. No way there are 4 better teams in the country this year. The #1’s will be IU, Michigan, Louisville, and Duke – mark it down! 🙂

  • WOW, I never thought I’d hear that one…that’s some strong words right there. YIKES!

  • 1) IU doesn’t plan Wisconsin at their place. If we see them again this year, it’ll be in the B1G tourney

    2) I don’t see two B1G Teams getting #1. I think the B1G winner is pretty much an automatic #1 though

    3) I see it as Duke, BigEast Winner, B1G Winner and probably Kansas because it’s relatively weak out there.

    My opinion, I think Duke is a bit over-rated and being loved too much by the media guys. Yeah, they had a great pre-conference run and beat some good teams. They are a team with Vets and beat some more talented younger teams early in the season when they were getting their footing. At the end of the season I don’t see how anyone could suggest that IU, Minn, or UM doesn’t have a harder schedule than Duke. There’s not much competition in the ACC this year.

    Dukes notable wins – Minn, UofL (no Djieng), VCU and Ohio State
    B1G winner will probably have wins over: Minn, IU, UM, MSU, Ohio State and on the road (UM already over Minn @ Minn)

    So sure, an argument can be made for two B1G teams as #1 seeds, but it probably isn’t going to happen.

  • jermhoosierfan

    I was saying that exact statement about Verdell in the second half of Wisconsin and Northwestern. I can see Princess Leia calling for Verdell instead of Obi-Wan’s in a hologram. (Probably showing my geek side there.)

  • kennygeorge

    amen..am soooo tired of hearing this complaint about something that’s done and over. yes, please everyone let it rest. it’s older than our first banner…..

  • Yea that’s pretty geek, but given I know exactly what you are talking about, I’m probably right there with you. I just watch these 2nd halves lately and we are just dying for someone who can penetrate and knock down a 12 footer. Seems like it’s all 3s or Zeller when Will isnt shooting the mid range well. Plus Verdell was a very good defender with his length. Pains me to see Jordy try to run around screens with these guys and either get a hand up for a three (guy shoots right over him) or stay in front of someone (guy goes right around him).

  • Yea that’s pretty geek, but given I know exactly what you are talking about, I’m probably right there with you. I just watch these 2nd halves lately and we are just dying for someone who can penetrate and knock down a 12 footer. Seems like it’s all 3s or Zeller when Will isnt shooting the mid range well. Plus Verdell was a very good defender with his length. Pains me to see Jordy try to run around screens with these guys and either get a hand up for a three (guy shoots right over him) or stay in front of someone (guy goes right around him).

  • Andrew

    Wrong. So wrong. This is not football. Bryant, Coppin State, CCSU, Mt. St. Mary’s, FAU, Jacksonville…all guarantee games. BSU may be a one-year deal as well. North Dakota State, Sam Houston State, Georgia and Gtown were a part of the Legends Classic. Repeat: this is not football. These guarantee games are added every offseason for the next season. The 2012/13 schedule was made THIS offseason, with THIS year’s team in mind, not 3 or 4 years ago when we were losing 20 times a year. Amazing how many people don’t understand this.

  • jermhoosierfan

    What is funny is that Sheehey is almost automatic from that range also. If he can get back on track soon, that is a big headache that can be taken care of.

  • PDXHoosier

    I miss Tom Pritchard

  • PDXHoosier

    I was really hoping we would be undefeated at this point in the B1G considering how back-loaded our schedule is. Either way, just win the games.

  • HoosierPat

    You’ve got some guts to give any praise to Verdell on here. It seemed like every time something went wrong last year it was, “Dammit Verdell!” And I agree with you.

  • Jersey Hoosier

    Anybody watch Michigan State – Wisconsin tonight? Tom Izzo clearly knew how to beat them (at halftime – less help, don’t leave the three point shooters alone). I guess four years as an Izzo assistant wasn’t enough for TC.

  • calbert40

    First off, thanks for repeating yourself. I didn’t understand the first two times. That third time made it sink in better, Andrew. The only thing that would have made this better is IF IT WOULD HAVE BEEN IN ALL CAPS, and you would have typed it slower so I could read it better! I have played those XBox NCAA games, and made my own schedules, and sometimes it is hard to get good teams to play you in your own building! 🙂

    Seriously though, I count just 6 gimmies (outside of NDSU and SHSU). I’d like to see us add one or two more challenging games, but it is difficult to schedule “the big boys” on short notice. When we lost UK, we tried to get Kansas, according to reports, but Kansas already has a tough schedule. They probably weren’t crazy about adding us. I hope to we add more difficulty to the schedule soon, though.

    Please excuse my ignorance.

  • I can see it happening but only 1 way. IU or Michigan win the conference outright, meet each other in the B1G tournament title game, and the conference runner up wins the tournament title. The damndest thing is, I can see this happening.

  • CreamandCrimson

    Every comment you leave on this site is about how Crean can’t coach and this team doesn’t deserve their “press clippings” and “Bobby would have….” We get it.

    You conveniently left off that Wisconsin was 7-18 on free throws and missed several open three pointers in the second half. Credit to Michigan State (especially Dawson, he was a beast), they played tough enough to get the win. You can’t just point to two results and say “Coach A is better than Coach B”.

  • Andrew

    Uh, yeah. Funny how your second post doesn’t refute anything I said. So we’re in agreement that the IU/Central Connecticut State contract wasn’t signed after Libscomb beat Indiana back in December 2008?

  • calbert40

    Dude, chill out! The only other person I know who busts my balls like this is my wife, and her name isn’t Andrew. This isn’t you, is it, honey?

    Apparently, I made a mistake. Next time, you may want to handle pointing out someone’s mistake with a little bit more tact and/or class. Just a suggestion.