Pomeroy predicts IU to finish 18-13 overall, 8-10 in Big Ten

  • 11/03/2011 10:40 am in

KenPom.com: 2012 Scouting Report for Indiana

One change this season involved the computation of the Pythagorean winning percentage. Calibration of last year’s predictions revealed that 10.25 is the best exponent to use for the purpose of the game probabilities. This should provide a more realistic forecast of end-of-season records now and especially as the games start and real data goes into the system. This does not affect the calculations of any other statistics.

Right now this results in a lot of conference records bunching up near .500. This will prompt your message board friends to say something like “There’s no way every team in the Pac-12 finishes with between 6 and 12 wins. LOL.” Substitute your own conference of choice in the quote. Of course that’s not how the teams will finish, but this is setting an expectation for each team on an individual basis, and not trying to predict the record of the conference champ, whoever that may be. Considering that the last preseason number one to go unbeaten in conference play was Duke in 1999, chances should be fairly low for even the best teams to run their conference’s table. Though I’ll admit, chances are unrealistically low for some teams. That should change fast as games are played.

Filed to:

  • I do not see Ohio State losing 4 games in Big ten play.   I do like that this puts IU on the bubble though…  One or two more wins and this would put IU in 4-5 place.  I would be more than satisfied with this finish though, to be honest, because it would show an increase in competitiveness in B1G.  This record would be okay by this fan!

  • Anonymous

    Seems pretty fair.  And it’d be nice to end the season with a 1 point win over Purdue.  

  • Anonymous

    You guys ever hear that Bob Knight half time speech on youtube?  “I am sick and f-in tired of an 8-10 record! I’m f-in tired of losin to Purdue!”                so are we coach!      I bet Greg Graham recovered the rest of that game….Here’s to hopin we best an 8-10 record, or coach Crean should bring the General in to run them till they can’t eat supper…LOL

  • Anonymous

    7 games in the 50-60% range tells me that those games could go either way. The last two home wins are especially interesting. Probably looking anywhere from 15-18 wins. Nevertheless, it’s all a guess until they start playing real games.

  • MillaRed

    I don’t want to sound like I’m bragging, OK yes I do. This is the record I was preaching yesterday with Loop. I’m thinking 18-13.

  • Anonymous

    18-13 is a very realistic expectation and would be a satisfying improvement.  Most computer ranking systems or members of the media will not go out on a limb and project a drastic increase in wins from one year to the next.  Since I do not fall into that category and am both optimistic and biased I am sticking with my instinct of 20-11.

  • Anonymous

    Sadly I have this on a CD I made a long time ago.  On my way down to IU last night for an event I threw it in the car and listened to that speech. 

    It’s an omen.  We will beat 8-10 in the Big10 or “you’ll think last night was a picnic!” 

  • IU_Fan_99

    Alex, will you be writing for the Maple Street Press again this year? Will they be putting out another IU B-Ball magazine this year? I see they have yet to update their website for the 2011-2012 season…

  • Anonymous

    Am I missing something in the breakdown or did Mr. Pomeroy do his math wrong?  He has us as 8-10 in B1G conference play, but in the breakdown he has us winning 9 games.  It would seem the record would be 19-12, 9-9 in conference.  Did anyone else see this?  Also is Nebraska going to be that tough in their first year in the B1G?

  • Anonymous

    The game by game predictions aren’t always the same as the overall season projection. For example, they have OSU the probable winner in every game but with a projected 26-5 record.

  • I will not. Zach was actually the editor of that last year and put it together for Maple Street Press. Pretty sure it won’t be published again. I was asked to edit, but prefer to focus on the site.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the clarification. 

  • MillaRed

    I hate to say it, but of we are not in the top of the Big Ten and the dance in 2012, something isn’t clicking. And that would be bad.

    I just don’t see it. Too much talent and experience. Would be shocked if we didn’t do both and do them well.

  • Anonymous

    18-13 is what I submitted in the contest to predict our final record so, yea, I’m feeling pretty good too.

    But I’m OK with not winning the contest if we end up with a better record than that !!

  • Anonymous

    I think (maybe even hope) that this prediction will end up being pretty close. Why does 19-12 seem way better, though? Lol. PS what were the KenPom predictions last year?

  • Anonymous

    I assume you’re referring to the 2012-2013 season. You’d be satisfied with the KenPom (and your) prediction, right?

  • WALT

    Talking about Ohio State and them losing 4, just made me think about the sweet 16 this spring. Do not even know if Ohio State got in s16, but the one thing that impressed me was that Ohio State seemed slow, like SLOW. But most of teams in sweet 16 had a lot of speed. Hearing folks talk about Cody getting down the floor quicker than anybody else. Know Jordy is fast. My point is the 18-20 wins will happen if we are fast. Verdell needs to have his hair on fire, instead of looking so studious, and thoughtful coming down the floor.  Hope this makes some sense.  

  • Anonymous

    Whoever recorded that really had some kahunas.  If Knight would have caught him, I don’t know if he ever would have made it out of the locker room.

  • MillaRed

    Correct I was talking about Yogi and company. AKA “The Calvary.”

  • Anonymous

    I find this stuff interesting. Thanks for the links to Ken Pomeroy. Our average
    opponent is 106.03; we play 11 games against teams ranked over 106; we
    play 6 games against teams ranked 63-105; we play 3 games against teams
    ranked 35-52; we play 5 games against teams ranked 20-34; and we play 6
    games against teams ranked 1-19. So 2/3 of our games are against good
    opponents. On the individual game projections, I see 5 key games where
    Pomeroy predicts a loss and I think IU can win the game: at NC St, Notre
    Dame at Indy, at Nebraska, at Iowa, and at MN. Win those road games and
    this will be a fantastic year! One problem, I added up the numbers
    three times on the individual game projections and came up with Pomeroy
    predicting a record of 19-12 NOT 18-13. What gives?

  • The total predicted wins isn’t a sum. It’s the most likely average wins based on the percentages.