Bracketology watch: The latest on IU basketball’s NCAA tournament chances

Photos from IU basketball's 92-74 win against Oregon.

With Selection Sunday 32 days away, we’ll periodically examine where IU basketball stands in bracketology projections. The full 2026 NCAA tournament field will be revealed on Sunday, March 15, 2026.

Indiana basketball is 17-8 overall and 8-6 in the Big Ten with eight regular-season games remaining. To date, the Hoosiers have outperformed their preseason computer rankings in the first season of the Darian DeVries era.

Here’s a look at current bracketology projections and where the Hoosiers stand, along with their current resume:

Quad 1: 2-7
Quad 2: 2-1
Quad 3: 6-0
Quad 4: 7-0

KPI: 43 (up 10 spots from last update)
Strength of Record: 40 (up four spots from last update)
WAB (Wins Above Bubble): 38 (up five spots from last update)
BPI: 26 (unchanged from last update)
KenPom: 35 (unchanged from last update)
NET ranking: 33 (unchanged from last update)
Bart Torvik: 24 (up two spots from last update)

Here are IU’s six remaining regular-season games with KenPom win probabilities as of Friday morning for each game:

Sunday, February 15 at Illinois: 16 percent chance of an IU win
Friday, February 20 at Purdue: 20 percent chance of an IU win
Tuesday, February 24 vs. Northwestern: 79 percent chance of an IU win
Sunday, March 1 vs. Michigan State: 40 percent chance of an IU win
Wednesday, March 4 vs. Minnesota: 81 percent chance of an IU win
Saturday, March 7 at Ohio State: 43 percent chance of an IU win

The most recent bracketology update from Andy Bottoms is available here.

ESPN.com, Joe Lunardi

Lunardi’s latest projection, published Tuesday, February 10, has Indiana as a No. 9 seed. In the projection, the Hoosiers are playing No. 8 seed Villanova in Greenville, South Carolina.

Lunardi has 10 Big Ten teams projected to make the 2026 NCAA tournament field.

CBSSports.com

The most recent CBS Sports projection, published Wednesday, February 11, has the Hoosiers as a No. 9 seed.

The last four teams in are Saint Mary’s, Missouri, Santa Clara and TCU.

Delphi Bracketology

Delphi’s most recent update, published late on Tuesday, February 10, has the Hoosiers as a No. 9 seed.

The first four teams out in that projection: Oklahoma State, California, New Mexico and Ohio State.

Here is our most recent seed list. Man the 10/11 line is quite messy. pic.twitter.com/18ye0yoPkD

— Delphi Bracketology (@DelphiBrackets) February 10, 2026