Bracketology: Final NCAA tournament projection
Richmond’s win in the A-10 title game bumped a team from the field, but this will be my final set of projections.
Before looking at the one seeds, here’s a quick reminder about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating.
A breakdown of the four tiers:
· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351
One Seeds
Gonzaga has been locked in for the top overall seed, and thanks to a second half comeback, Arizona will remain second on the seed list. Kansas followed up its Big 12 regular season title with a tournament crown and is slotted third overall.
That essentially leaves Baylor and Kentucky for the final one seed. The Bears are 26-6 overall with 10 Q1 wins and a 18-6 mark in the top two quadrants with only one loss in Q2. Baylor was a combined 11-4 in road/neutral games and finished ahead of UK in both results-based metrics. Kentucky is 26-7 overall with no losses outside of Q1. The Wildcats have nine Q1 victories and are 14-7 in the top two quadrants, but they finished just 8-7 away from home. Kentucky tends to rate slightly ahead of Baylor in the predictive metrics except for Sagarin. I gave the nod to Baylor thanks to winning a share of the regular season title in the Big 12 as well as their advantage away from home and the overall number of quality wins.
The Bracket
The projections below are based on all games played through March 13, 2022. Following the bracket, I listed last four in and first four out.
| WEST (SAN FRANCISCO) | SOUTH (SAN ANTONIO) | |
| Portland – March 17/19 | San Diego – March 18/20 | |
| 1) Gonzaga | 1) Arizona | |
| 16) Bryant / Texas A&M-CC | 16) Texas So. / Wright St. | |
| 8) San Diego St. |
8) TCU | |
| 9) Memphis | 9) Marquette | |
| Milwaukee – March 18/20 | Milwaukee – March 18/20 | |
| 5) Connecticut |
5) Houston | |
| 12) South Dakota St. | 12) UAB |
|
| 4) Illinois | 4) Wisconsin | |
| 13) Akron | 13) New Mexico St. | |
| Portland – March 17/19 | San Diego – March 18/20 | |
| 6) Colorado St. | 6) LSU | |
| 11) Miami FL | 11) Indiana | |
| 3) UCLA | 3) Texas Tech | |
| 14) Montana St. | 14) Delaware | |
| Greenville – March 18/20 | Greenville – March 18/20 | |
| 7) Ohio St. | 7) Boise St. | |
| 10) Virginia Tech | 10) San Francisco | |
| 2) Tennessee | 2) Auburn | |
| 15) Georgia St. |
15) Jacksonville St. | |
| EAST (PHILADELPHIA) | MIDWEST (CHICAGO) | |
| Fort Worth – March 17/19 | Fort Worth – March 17/19 | |
| 1) Baylor | 1) Kansas | |
| 16) Norfolk St. | 16) Cal St. Fullerton | |
| 8) Seton Hall | 8) Murray St. | |
| 9) North Carolina | 9) Creighton | |
| Buffalo – March 17/19 | Buffalo – March 17/19 | |
| 5) Iowa | 5) Saint Mary’s | |
| 12) Richmond | 12) SMU / Texas A&M | |
| 4) Arkansas | 4) Providence | |
| 13) Vermont | 13) Chattanooga | |
| Pittsburgh – March 18/20 | Indianapolis – March 17/19 | |
| 6) Alabama | 6) Texas | |
| 11) Michigan / Wyoming |
11) Davidson | |
| 3) Duke | 3) Purdue | |
| 14) Longwood | 14) Saint Peter’s | |
| Pittsburgh – March 18/20 | Indianapolis – March 17/19 | |
| 7) USC | 7) Michigan St. | |
| 10) Loyola Chicago | 10) Iowa St. | |
| 2) Villanova | 2) Kentucky | |
| 15) Yale | 15) Colgate |
Last Four In:
Wyoming
Michigan
Texas A&M
SMU
First Four Out:
Oklahoma
Rutgers
Notre Dame
Xavier
Conference Breakdown:
Big Ten (8): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
SEC (7): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Big East (6): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova
Big 12 (6): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU
ACC (4): Duke, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Mountain West (4): Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Wyoming
American (3): Houston, Memphis, SMU
Pac-12 (3): Arizona, UCLA, USC
West Coast (3): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, San Francisco
Atlantic 10 (2): Davidson, Richmond
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville State
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Longwood
Big West: Cal St. Fullerton
Colonial: Delaware
Conference USA: UAB
Horizon: Wright State
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Saint Peter’s
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Loyola Chicago
Northeast: Bryant
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Chattanooga
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
SWAC: Texas Southern
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: Georgia State
WAC: New Mexico State
BOLD = Earned automatic bid
Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.
Filed to: 2021-2022 Bracketology