Bracketology: Final NCAA tournament projection

  • 03/13/2022 4:02 pm in

Richmond’s win in the A-10 title game bumped a team from the field, but this will be my final set of projections.

Before looking at the one seeds, here’s a quick reminder about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating.

A breakdown of the four tiers:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351

One Seeds

Gonzaga has been locked in for the top overall seed, and thanks to a second half comeback, Arizona will remain second on the seed list. Kansas followed up its Big 12 regular season title with a tournament crown and is slotted third overall.

That essentially leaves Baylor and Kentucky for the final one seed. The Bears are 26-6 overall with 10 Q1 wins and a 18-6 mark in the top two quadrants with only one loss in Q2. Baylor was a combined 11-4 in road/neutral games and finished ahead of UK in both results-based metrics. Kentucky is 26-7 overall with no losses outside of Q1. The Wildcats have nine Q1 victories and are 14-7 in the top two quadrants, but they finished just 8-7 away from home. Kentucky tends to rate slightly ahead of Baylor in the predictive metrics except for Sagarin. I gave the nod to Baylor thanks to winning a share of the regular season title in the Big 12 as well as their advantage away from home and the overall number of quality wins.

The Bracket

The projections below are based on all games played through March 13, 2022. Following the bracket, I listed last four in and first four out.

Portland – March 17/19 San Diego – March 18/20
1) Gonzaga 1) Arizona
16) Bryant / Texas A&M-CC 16) Texas So. / Wright St.
8) San Diego St.
8) TCU
9) Memphis 9) Marquette
Milwaukee – March 18/20 Milwaukee – March 18/20
5) Connecticut
5) Houston
12) South Dakota St. 12) UAB
4) Illinois 4) Wisconsin
13) Akron 13) New Mexico St.
Portland – March 17/19 San Diego – March 18/20
6) Colorado St. 6) LSU
11) Miami FL 11) Indiana
3) UCLA 3) Texas Tech
14) Montana St. 14) Delaware
Greenville – March 18/20 Greenville – March 18/20
7) Ohio St. 7) Boise St.
10) Virginia Tech 10) San Francisco
2) Tennessee 2) Auburn
15) Georgia St.
15) Jacksonville St.
Fort Worth – March 17/19 Fort Worth – March 17/19
1) Baylor 1) Kansas
16) Norfolk St. 16) Cal St. Fullerton
8) Seton Hall 8) Murray St.
9) North Carolina 9) Creighton
Buffalo – March 17/19 Buffalo – March 17/19
5) Iowa 5) Saint Mary’s
12) Richmond 12) SMU / Texas A&M
4) Arkansas 4) Providence
13) Vermont 13) Chattanooga
Pittsburgh – March 18/20 Indianapolis – March 17/19
6) Alabama 6) Texas
11) Michigan / Wyoming
11) Davidson
3) Duke 3) Purdue
14) Longwood 14) Saint Peter’s
Pittsburgh – March 18/20 Indianapolis – March 17/19
7) USC 7) Michigan St.
10) Loyola Chicago 10) Iowa St.
2) Villanova 2) Kentucky
15) Yale 15) Colgate

Last Four In:



Texas A&M


First Four Out:



Notre Dame


Conference Breakdown:

Big Ten (8): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

SEC (7): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Big East (6): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova

Big 12 (6): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU

ACC (4): Duke, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Mountain West (4): Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Wyoming

American (3): Houston, Memphis, SMU

Pac-12 (3): Arizona, UCLA, USC

West Coast (3): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, San Francisco

Atlantic 10 (2): Davidson, Richmond

America East: Vermont

Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville State

Big Sky: Montana State

Big South: Longwood

Big West: Cal St. Fullerton

Colonial: Delaware

Conference USA: UAB

Horizon: Wright State

Ivy: Yale

MAAC: Saint Peter’s

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Missouri Valley: Loyola Chicago

Northeast: Bryant

Ohio Valley: Murray State

Patriot: Colgate

Southern: Chattanooga

Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC: Texas Southern

Summit: South Dakota State

Sun Belt: Georgia State

WAC: New Mexico State

BOLD = Earned automatic bid

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