Pomeroy Preview: IU vs. Ohio State

  • 01/06/2010 12:17 pm in

Ohio State is 0-2 in the Big Ten, with losses to Wisconsin and Michigan. The same Michigan squad IU beat New Year’s Eve. On the surface, this should give the Hoosiers some confidence. But then you realize both these game were on the road for the Buckeyes, and tonight’s tilt is in Columbus.

And then you look at this:

As Tom Crean said earlier this week, Evan Turner or no Evan Turner, this team can ball. They shoot it well, as they’re fifth in the country in eFG percentage. They do a good job taking care of the ball and they’re a solid defensive rebounding team. Their adjusted defense is in the top 50 in the country, and their adjusted offense is 26th.

However, Ohio State is struggling on the offensive boards, which is a good thing for the Hoosiers, as they’re currently only 222nd in the country on the defensive boards.

If there’s an area IU can exploit this evening, it’s getting to the line. IU is one of the best teams in the country — 39th — at finding their way to the charity stripe, while Ohio State’s opponents this season are getting to the line a lot as well, as their opponents FTR is 25th in the country. But as is often the case with the Hoosiers, it’s not about getting to the line; it’s about getting to the line and converting.

With the way Ohio State has come out the gate so far this Big Ten season, it’s easy to point to this as a potential game the Hoosiers could steal on the road this season. But don’t let their conference record deceive you: Ohio State is a good team.

All stats from Kenpom.com.

Filed to:

  • cooper

    Apparently, Turner is going to play. I'm sure he won't play more than 20 minutes or so but he could still cause IU quite a bit of trouble. Nobody can match up well with him on he team.

  • CreamandCrimson

    I am trying to stay grounded here. I know this is a game that Indiana shouldn't have a chance to win. The Michigan game was a very nice victory but we can't forget how little this group of guys has succeeded on the road. This is their first true road game. Ohio State is not a crazy atmosphere but it is still a Big Ten road game. Evan Turner might be back, Ohio State is desperate for a win (Minnesota and Purdue on the road next), OSU has more talent.

    All of that being said, I expect Indiana to be fairly competitive for most of the night. I think VJIII is going to play well, Hulls is going to play well, Watford, Elston and even Pritchard (gasp!) could have an impact down low. It is a long shot but IU could steal this one. Go Hoosiers!

  • Yes, he's playing tonight. He practiced last night and this morning everything was fine. I, too, am guessing about 20 minutes, maybe a little more, but it won't be in long stretches.

  • aceman07

    Here's my guess – typical bang and bash Big 10 game. IU hangs around and is competitive for most the game but OSU pulls away the last 5 minutes to win 73-61. I would be happy if we hung around and only lost by 10-12 but I still think there's a chance we could hang around then have a couple big plays and pull off the upset.

  • BaseballBuc

    The key to tonights game I believe is 3 pt. shooting. More specifically Jon Diebler. Seems like good shooters have torched the Hoosiers in the past couple years. Meachem, Mcamey, Novak, Moore, and last year Diebler. If the hoosiers limit the outside shooting that really gets the crowd going, they will have a chance. Of course, reb. and ft. shooting are important too.

  • Bryan

    The other interesting stat from Pomeroy is the % chance for a win, which is currently at 8%. Not sure how much stock I put in those predictors (especially since they disappear after each game, and there doesn't seem to be any way of finding the overall track record of those predictions), but it does further highlight the disparity in the numbers of the two teams.