Bracketology watch: Where IU basketball’s NCAA tournament chances stand ahead of Michigan State game

Photos from IU basketball's win against Wisconsin.

With Selection Sunday 15 days away, we’ll periodically examine where IU basketball stands in bracketology projections. The full 2026 NCAA tournament field will be revealed on Sunday, March 15, 2026.

Indiana basketball is 17-11 overall and 8-9 in the Big Ten with three regular-season games remaining.

Here’s a look at current bracketology projections and where the Hoosiers stand, along with their current resume:

Quad 1: 2-10
Quad 2: 2-1
Quad 3: 6-0
Quad 4: 7-0

KPI: 63 (down 12 spots from last update)
Strength of Record: 47 (down one spot from last update)
WAB (Wins Above Bubble): 49 (unchanged from last update)
BPI: 36 (up one spot from last update)
KenPom: 43 (down one spot from last update)
NET ranking: 39 (down one spot from last update)
Bart Torvik: 31 (unchanged from last update)

Here are IU’s three remaining regular-season games with KenPom win probabilities as of Saturday morning for each game:

Sunday, March 1 vs. Michigan State: 36 percent chance of an IU win
Wednesday, March 4 vs. Minnesota: 73 percent chance of an IU win
Saturday, March 7 at Ohio State: 36 percent chance of an IU win

The most recent bracketology update from Andy Bottoms is available here. Andy will have an updated bracket on Tuesday, March 3.

ESPN.com, Joe Lunardi

Lunardi’s latest update came via social media on Saturday morning and he has the Hoosiers among the last four teams in the field along with Auburn, Santa Clara and San Diego State.

The first four out are Cal, Ohio State, New Mexico and USC.

CBSSports.com

The most recent CBS Sports projection, published Thursday, February 26, has Indiana out of the field.

The last four teams in are Texas A&M, Cal, TCU and Santa Clara and the first four out are New Mexico, VCU, Seton Hall and Ohio State.

Delphi Bracketology

Delphi’s most recent update, published on Saturday, February 28, has the Hoosiers among the first four out.

The last four in are Santa Clara, Cal, TCU and New Mexico and the first four out are San Diego State, Indiana, Ohio State and VCU.

1-3-1 Sports

A long-time fixture in the Bracket Matrix with strong results, we’re including 1-3-1 Sports in all of our remaining updates.

Their latest projection, published on Saturday, February 28, has the Hoosiers as a No. 11 seed.

The last four in are Santa Clara, Indiana, Auburn and New Mexico and the first four teams out are San Diego State, Cal, Virginia Tech and USC.

On3.com

The latest On3.com projection, written by James Fletcher on Thursday, February 26, has the Hoosiers as one of the last four in.

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