What to Expect: Indiana vs. Penn State at the Palestra

Indiana is back on the road Sunday afternoon against Penn State at the Palestra in Philadelphia. The Nittany Lions are 12-2 overall and 2-1 in Big Ten play.

Sunday’s game will tip at noon ET on BTN:

Indiana will try to win its fourth straight game this weekend when it travels to Philadelphia to play Penn State at the Palestra.

The Nittany Lions own a pair of top 50 KenPom wins – Purdue and Northwestern – but played a non-conference schedule ranked 358th in Division I, according to KenPom. Picked to finish 17th in the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions are one of the surprise teams in the conference as the regular season nears the halfway point.

The Hoosiers, meanwhile, are still searching for their first Quad 1 win, and Sunday is an opportunity against a Penn State squad currently ranked 41st in the NET. The Nittany Lions swept Indiana in the regular season in 2023-24 before the Hoosiers prevailed in the Big Ten tournament opening round in Minneapolis.

MEET THE NITTANY LIONS

Penn State returned five notable contributors from last season’s team that finished 16-17 in Mike Rhoades’ first season in University Park.

The headlining returnee is point guard Ace Baldwin Jr., one of the top two-way guards in the country. Baldwin leads the Nittany Lions in scoring, minutes, assists and steals.

He’s averaging 15 points per game on 39.1 percent shooting from the field and a 31.6 percent mark on 3s. Baldwin ranks in the top 60 nationally in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) at 64.5 percent and is 84-for-89 from the free throw line (94.4 percent). He’s also 11th in the country in assist rate at 39.8 percent and dishes out 8.5 assists per game. Baldwin’s relentlessness on offense and tenacity on defense make him one of the elite guards not just in the Big Ten but in the country.

Joining him in the starting backcourt is 6-foot-5 sophomore guard Freddie Dilione V, a transfer from Tennessee who is enjoying a larger role with the Nittany Lions. Dilione is shooting close to 56 percent on 2s and is sixth on the team in scoring at 9.9 points per game.

Senior wing Zach Hicks has been lights out from the perimeter after shooting just 34.2 percent from deep last season. The 6-foot-8 native of Camden, New Jersey, is 38-for-85 on 3s (44.7 percent), taking 73.9 percent of his field goal attempts from the perimeter. Hicks is third on the team in scoring at 12.6 points per game.

Fifth-year senior Puff Johnson plays the four and is shooting close to 69 percent on 2s through 14 games. The 6-foot-8 Pennsylvania native averages 11.6 points and 4.6 rebounds in 23.4 minutes per game.

Penn State brought in Northern Illinois transfer Yanic Konan Niederhauser to play the five, a move that has been a significant upgrade for the Nittany Lion frontcourt. The 7-foot, 250-pound native of Fraschels, Switzerland, is second in scoring at 13.8 points per game and shoots 63.6 percent from the field. He’s 22nd nationally in block percentage and his 6.8 rebounds per game lead the team.

The rotation for Rhoades goes eight deep regularly with Nick Kern, D’Marco Dunn and Kachi Nzeh filling out the minutes. Kern and Dunn are returnees from last season who fill out the backcourt and wing rotation minutes.

The 6-foot-6 Kern has scored in double figures 11 times and is shooting 68.1 percent on 2s. His 11.6 points per game are fourth on the team. The 6-foot-5 Dunn is a 35.3 percent 3-point shooter this season and shot 36.6 percent from distance last season.

Nzeh missed Thursday’s game against Northwestern with an illness, but the 6-foot-8, 225-pound sophomore transfer from Xavier is typically the first big off the bench. Nzeh averages 3.8 points and 2.9 rebounds in 13.1 minutes per game. Freshman Miles Goodman, a 6-foot-11, 225-pound center, debuted against Northwestern after missing the first 13 games with an injury. The four-star recruit could push Nzeh for minutes as the season moves along.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

Penn State has put up impressive numbers through 14 games, ranking in the top 50 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Nittany Lions are averaging 87.9 points and are outscoring their opponents by an average of 20 points per game.

The Nittany Lions thrive on turning over their opponents, as they have a turnover differential of 76 or 5.4 per game. Penn State plays at a relentless pace – 17th in adjusted tempo per KenPom – and wants to get out in transition when it forces turnovers. For Indiana, taking care of the ball is imperative to staying in the game.

Penn State is solid across the board offensively, ranking in the top 50 nationally in effective field goal percentage and free throw rate (FTA/FGA) and top 100 in turnover percentage and offensive rebounding percentage. The Nittany Lions don’t take a ton of 3s – they rank 302nd in percentage of points scored on 3-pointers – but are shooting 35.3 percent from deep.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection is Penn State by four with a 34 percent chance of an IU victory. The Bart Torvik projection is Penn State by six with a 30 percent chance of a Hoosier victory.

The Palestra seats close to 9,000 fans and should produce an electric atmosphere of Penn State fans from Philadelphia and the surrounding areas. Last season, Penn State beat Michigan at the Palestra 79-73 in early January.

If Indiana is serious about making the NCAA tournament, this is a prime opportunity to get a quad 1 win and some momentum heading into a schedule that gets extremely difficult in the back half of the month.

The Hoosiers will likely have to score in the 80s to win this game, which means avoiding prolonged offensive droughts, limiting turnovers and withstanding the inevitable runs Penn State will go on. With the status of Malik Reneau unknown and the personnel and team speed of the Nittany Lions, it’s a good bet that Indiana will stick with its smaller starting lineup on Sunday.

Category: Commentary

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