Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of January 28th, 2025
This is a bit later than normal for my first set of projections and I would expect future updates to be a bit less regular than in years past. But as we close in on the end of January, I wanted to go through the entire process and see where things stand.
My hope is to get into more detail in future posts, but thanks to conference realignment, Big Monday’s headline game didn’t tip off until after 10:30 EST, so this one will be a little light. That Iowa State-Arizona game delivered, so I can’t complain too much. However, that result did force me to take a closer look at Iowa State and Tennessee for the final number one seed, but I ultimately left the Cyclones there for now, albeit by a narrow margin. Both teams rank in the top 10 in all six team sheet metrics, while Iowa State has the slight edge in Quad 1 wins with six compared to five for the Vols. ISU is also 9-3 against the top two quadrants, with Tennesse at 7-3.
Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:
· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351
The Bracket
The projections below are based on all games played through January 27, 2025. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first five out.
Please note that the First Four game between Pitt and UCF was bumped from the 11 to the 12 line since both First Four games can’t slot into a Thursday/Saturday site.
ATLANTA (SOUTH) | NEWARK (EAST) | |
Lexington – March 20/22 | Raleigh – March 21/23 | |
1) Auburn | 1) Duke | |
16) American / LIU | 16) Southern / Morehead St. | |
8) Gonzaga |
8) Connecticut | |
9) Creighton | 9) Vanderbilt | |
Denver – March 20/22 | Seattle – March 21/23 | |
5) Arizona |
5) Memphis | |
12) Arkansas St. | 12) McNeese |
|
4) Texas A&M | 4) Wisconsin | |
13) Samford | 13) MTSU | |
Wichita – March 20/22 | Wichita – March 20/22 | |
6) Missouri | 6) Michigan | |
11) Drake / Ohio St. | 11) New Mexico | |
3) Houston | 3) Kansas | |
14) Utah Valley | 14) N. Colorado | |
Milwaukee – March 21/23 | Raleigh – March 21/23 | |
7) Texas Tech | 7) Clemson | |
10) Saint Mary’s | 10) Georgia | |
2) Purdue | 2) Tennessee | |
15) Bryant |
15) UNC Asheville | |
SAN FRANCISCO (WEST) | INDIANAPOLIS (MIDWEST) | |
Milwaukee – March 21/23 | Lexington – March 20/22 | |
1) Iowa St. | 1) Alabama | |
16) Marist | 16) Omaha | |
8) Utah St. | 8) UCLA | |
9) Oklahoma | 9) Baylor | |
Seattle – March 21/23 | Denver – March 20/22 | |
5) Ole Miss | 5) Illinois | |
12) Pitt / UCF | 12) Bradley | |
4) Oregon | 4) Mississippi St. | |
13) Akron | 13) Yale | |
Providence – March 20/22 | Providence – March 20/22 | |
6) St. John’s | 6) Louisville | |
11) UC Irvine |
11) VCU | |
3) Kentucky | 3) Michigan St. | |
14) Cleveland St. | 14) Jacksonville | |
Cleveland – March 21/23 | Cleveland – March 21/23 | |
7) Maryland | 7) West Virginia | |
10) San Diego St. | 10) Texas | |
2) Florida | 2) Marquette | |
15) William & Mary | 15) Norfolk St. |
Last Four In:
Pittsburgh – All six of Pitt’s losses fall in Q1, but quality wins are lacking outside of a road win at OSU and a home victory against West Virginia.
Ohio State – The Buckeyes boast a trio of strong wins (at Purdue and neutral vs. Kentucky and Texas), but they are just 6-8 in non-Q4 contests.
UCF – The result-based metrics are solid thanks to wins over Texas Tech and Arizona State on the road as well as Texas A&M at home, but the predictive metrics don’t love the Knights.
Drake – Maybe this is in hopes that the committee gives the benefit of the doubt to a mid-major this year, but the Bulldogs are 16-2 and a perfect 2-0 in Q1.
First Five Out:
North Carolina – The Heels played a tough non-conference slate but are just 1-7 in Q1 games and boast only one win over an at-large team in today’s field (UCLA).
Wake Forest – All five of Wake’s losses fall in Q1, but they are just 4-5 in the top two quadrants and rank in the low 70s in the NET with relatively poor predictive metrics.
Arizona State – The Sun Devils own a pair of Q1 victories and have won six games away from home, but their results-based metrics are in the 45-50 range with the predictives even worse.
Xavier – Recent wins at Marquette and home against UConn have the Musketeers back in the mix, but seven of their 13 victories sit in Q4.
Indiana – All seven Hoosier losses are in Q1, but they have just one win over a team in the at-large picture (at OSU).
Conference Breakdown:
SEC (13): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Big Ten (9): Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12 (8): Arizona, Baylor, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech, UCF, West Virginia
ACC (4): Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Pittsburgh
Big East (4): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s
Mountain West (3): New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State
Missouri Valley (2): Bradley, Drake
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
American: Memphis
Atlantic 10: VCU
America East: Bryant
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville
Big Sky: Northern Colorado
Big South: UNC Asheville
Big West: UC Irvine
Colonial: William & Mary
Conference USA: MTSU
Horizon: Cleveland State
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Marist
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Northeast: LIU
Ohio Valley: Morehead State
Patriot: American
Southern: Samford
Southland: McNeese
SWAC: Southern
Summit: Omaha
Sun Belt: Arkansas State
WAC: Utah Valley
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Filed to: 2024-2025 Bracketology