Is Kanaan Carlyle ready to break out as a sophomore at Indiana?
When Kanaan Carlyle entered the transfer portal last spring, he was immediately touted as one of the best guards available in the country.
A 6-foot-3, 185-pound guard from Atlanta, Georgia, Carlyle was a consensus top 60 recruit out of Overtime Elite after playing his first three high school seasons at Milton High School.
Winning had been a big part of Carlyle’s background before he arrived at Stanford last summer. As a sophomore, he helped lead Milton to a state championship in 2021. In 2022, he was a gold medalist on the USA Basketball FIBA U18 Americas team in Mexico. And in his final prep season, he helped lead the YNG Dreamers to the championship game of Overtime Elite.
Winning, however, proved to be elusive in his first and only season in Palo Alto. After not reaching the NCAA tournament in each of his first seven seasons, there was pressure on coach Jerod Haase to win in year eight.
Carlyle missed the first eight games of his freshman season before making his debut at home against Idaho on Dec. 17. He scored 11 points on 3-for-5 shooting in 22 minutes off the bench.
Weeks later, he exploded for 28 points in a 100-82 win against Arizona on New Year’s Eve. Carlyle was 6-for-8 on 3s and earned Pac-12 freshman of the week and Associated Press national player of the week honors for the effort.
He moved into the starting lineup on Jan. 11 against Oregon State and his role grew as Jared Bynum struggled to stay healthy for the rest of the season. Carlyle played 23 games as a freshman for the Cardinal, averaging 11.5 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists in 25.6 minutes. Those numbers were enough to earn him All-Pac-12 freshman team honorable mention honors.
After Stanford’s up-and-down season – the Cardinal finished 14-18 overall and 105th in KenPom – Haase was dismissed and Carlyle hit the portal searching for a new home.
With a prior relationship led by associated head coach Yasir Rosemond, Indiana worked quickly to get Carlyle on campus and ultimately secured his commitment.
As the start of the fall semester looms along with the start of practice later next month, Carlyle’s addition is one of many reasons for optimism surrounding the Hoosiers next season.
In an interview earlier this summer on Sleepers Media, Luke Goode called Carlyle ” probably the second-fastest player that I’ve played with other than Terrence Shannon Jr.,” which is high praise.
However, after examining his freshman numbers, Carlyle’s key to reaching his potential has several layers.
While Stanford struggled, a major positive for Carlyle was the minutes and opportunities he earned in his first season. He started 16 times and had the third-highest usage rate in conference play of any Pac-12 player, at 28.4 percent. In an era where it’s difficult for freshmen to carve out a consistent role, Carlyle was a focal point at the high-major level last season. That experience should pay dividends.
The raw numbers Carlyle produced were solid, but the efficiency numbers were not. According to Bart Torvik, among high-major freshmen guards with a usage rate above 20 percent — 22 players fit this description — Carlyle had the worst offensive rating at 91.7.
Carlyle excelled offensively at times, using his quickness to get downhill and to the free-throw line. His free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) of 38.2 percent was 12th-best in the Pac-12, and he converted at a 78.1 percent clip from the stripe. Carlyle attempted 3.8 free throws per game in conference play. For an Indiana program that’s been well below average from the line in recent seasons, Carlyle’s stroke from the line will be a welcome addition.
The hope is that Carlyle’s above-average free-throw shooting is an indicator that he’s capable of shooting a higher percentage from the perimeter. As a freshman, he shot 32 percent overall from distance and 34.5 percent in Pac-12 contests. Carlyle attempted nearly 4.6 3s per game in conference games at Stanford. Will he have the green light for that many attempts in Bloomington?
His shooting inside the arc and turnovers were the biggest drags on his offensive efficiency. He shot just 44.3 percent on 2s and had a turnover percentage of 22.8. His overall assist numbers – 62 in 23 games – were solid, but he finished the season with more turnovers (66) than assists.
What’s undeniable about Carlyle is that he’s an instant talent upgrade from Indiana’s guard rotation a season ago. He can score from all three levels. His athleticism can overwhelm defenders, particularly in the open court. And he plays with a confidence that many of Indiana’s guards did not exhibit last season. Like Myles Rice, he can break down a defense and get a bucket. Outside of Trey Galloway and occasionally Xavier Johnson when he was healthy, Indiana didn’t have that last season.
Carlyle will also benefit from not having to take on as ambitious a role as a sophomore. His usage rate isn’t going to be what it was at Stanford. He’ll be able to be more selective when picking his spots, which should help boost his efficiency. He’ll also be surrounded by better talent, which should keep defenses from being able to focus on taking him away.
Indiana knows what it has with Rice’s addition and Galloway’s return in the backcourt, but adding Carlyle provides hope the Hoosiers can improve upon guard play that was among the worst in the Big Ten last season.
Filed to: Kanaan Carlyle