Bracketology: Final NCAA tournament projection as of March 17, 2024

  • 03/17/2024 5:41 pm in

Thanks for following along during what proved to be one of the wildest weeks I can ever recall since I started doing bracketology. Luckily today has been relatively tame, which allowed some time to review a few parts of the seed list and make some minor tweaks.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 1A: Home vs. teams ranked 1-15 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-25 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-40
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351

The Bracket

The projections below are based on all games played through March 17, 2024. Following the bracket, I included my last four in and first four teams out.

BOSTON (EAST) DETROIT (MIDWEST)
Brooklyn – March 22/24 Indianapolis – March 22/24
1) Connecticut 1) Purdue
16) Howard / Wagner 16) Stetson
8) Boise State
 8) Dayton
9) Mississippi State 9) Colorado State
Salt Lake City – March 21/23 Spokane – March 22/24
5) BYU
 5) Texas Tech
12) McNeese State 12) Samford
4) Kentucky 4) Auburn
13) Yale 13) Vermont
Omaha – March 21/23 Pittsburgh – March 21/23
6) Saint Mary’s 6) South Carolina
11) James Madison 11) Oregon
3) Kansas 3) Creighton
14) Oakland 14) Colgate
Salt Lake City – March 21/23 Omaha – March 21/23
7) Nevada 7) Gonzaga
10) Oklahoma / Texas A&M 10) Florida Atlantic
2) Arizona 2) Iowa State
15) Long Beach State
 15) South Dakota State
LOS ANGELES (WEST) DALLAS (SOUTH)
Charlotte – March 21/23 Memphis – March 22/24
1) North Carolina 1) Houston
16) Grambling / Montana St. 16) Saint Peter’s
8) Texas 8) Nebraska
9) Northwestern 9) New Mexico
Spokane – March 22/24 Brooklyn – March 22/24
5) San Diego State 5) Wisconsin
12) Duquesne 12) Grand Canyon
4) Alabama 4) Duke
13) UAB 13) Charleston
Memphis – March 22/24 Pittsburgh – March 21/23
6) Utah State 6) Florida
11) Drake
 11) North Carolina State
3) Baylor 3) Illinois
14) Morehead State 14) Akron
Indianapolis – March 22/24 Charlotte – March 21/23
7) Clemson 7) Washington State
10) Colorado / Michigan St. 10) TCU
2) Marquette 2) Tennessee
15) Western Kentucky 15) Longwood

Last Four In:

Michigan State

Texas A&M

Colorado

Oklahoma

First Four Out:

Indiana State

Seton Hall

St. John’s

Virginia

Conference Breakdown:

Big 12 (9): Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State*, Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech

SEC (8): Alabama, Auburn*, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Big Ten (6): Illinois*, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

Mountain West (6): Boise State, Colorado St., Nevada, New Mexico*, San Diego State, Utah State

ACC (4): Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State*

Pac-12 (4): Arizona, Colorado, Oregon*, Washington State

Big East (3): Connecticut*, Creighton, Marquette

American (2): Florida Atlantic, UAB*

Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, Duquesne*

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s*

America East: Vermont*

Atlantic Sun: Stetson*

Big Sky: Montana State*

Big South: Longwood*

Big West: Long Beach State*

Coastal: Charleston*

Conference USA: Western Kentucky*

Horizon: Oakland*

Ivy: Yale*

MAAC: Saint Peter’s*

MAC: Akron*

MEAC: Howard*

Missouri Valley: Drake*

Northeast: Wagner*

Ohio Valley: Morehead State*

Patriot: Colgate*

Southern: Samford*

Southland: McNeese State*

SWAC: Grambling*

Summit: South Dakota State*

Sun Belt: James Madison*

WAC: Grand Canyon*

* – Automatic Bid

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