What to Expect: Penn State at Indiana

  • Feb 2, 2024 in

On Saturday afternoon, Indiana is back in action against Penn State at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. The Nittany Lions are 10-11 overall and 4-6 in the Big Ten.

Saturday’s game will tip at noon ET on FS1:

Indiana battled through injuries for a hard-fought 74-68 win against Iowa on Tuesday and the Hoosiers hope to continue their solid play with Penn State coming to Bloomington.

The Nittany Lions are coming off their first road win of the season Wednesday night, a 61-46 rock fight against Rutgers at Jersey Mike’s Arena. Their previous four road losses came by an average of 16.5 points. Penn State won the game at Rutgers without leading scorer Kanye Clary, who left the Minnesota game on Jan. 27 after being hit in the face.

Saturday’s afternoon tip gives Indiana an opportunity to get back over .500 in Big Ten play with 10 regular season games remaining.

MEET THE NITTANY LIONS

Micah Shrewsberry’s stint at Penn State was brief, as the Indiana native spent just two seasons in University Park before accepting the Notre Dame job last spring.

The Nittany Lions landed on VCU coach Mike Rhoades, a Pennsylvania native, as his replacement. The 51-year-old Rhoades had significant roster turnover to navigate last spring as only three returnees from last season’s NCAA tournament team returned.

The critical returnee was Clary, a 5-foot-11 guard from Virginia Beach, Virginia. After playing a limited role under Shrewsberry as a freshman, he’s blossomed into one of the best-scoring guards in the conference. Clary is averaging 18.4 points overall and 19.4 points in conference games. His status for Saturday is unknown as he was listed as “day-to-day” entering the Rutgers game but did not play. Clary is shooting 39.4 percent on 3s and 84.2 percent from the free throw line in league play.

North Carolina transfer D’Marco Dunn filled in as a starter for Clary at Rutgers with 14 points in 22 minutes. Dunn also had seven rebounds and three steals. In 10 Big Ten games, he’s averaged 6.9 points on just 44.1 percent shooting from the field.

Ace Baldwin Jr., last season’s Atlantic-10 player of the year, and Nick Kern Jr. followed Rhoades from VCU.

Baldwin Jr. is Penn State’s second-leading scorer at 13.2 points per game and best all-around guard. The 6-foot-1 Baldwin Jr. is fifth in the Big Ten in assist rate (29.6) and first in steal percentage (4.8). He’s struggled, however, with his shooting. Baldwin Jr. shoots only 38.4 percent from the field and 31.9 percent on 3s.

Kern Jr., a 6-foot-6 wing, does an excellent job of getting to the line and finishing at the rim. He’s sixth in the league in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) and is making 61 percent of his 2s, the eighth-best in the conference. His 7.9 points per game are fourth on the roster.

A sophomore guard and a Shrewsberry recruit, Jameel Brown, could see some backup guard minutes if Clary is out. He played 14 minutes at Rutgers and is 16-for-47 on 3s over 15 games.

Temple transfer Zach Hicks and Qudus Wahab, who transferred a total of three times, comprise the starting frontcourt for the Nittany Lions.

The 6-foot-8 Hicks has started all 21 games and averages 6.2 points and 3.2 rebounds in 24.6 minutes per game. He shoots 31.7 percent from the field and has only attempted eight free throws all season.

Wahab began his career at Georgetown, transferred to Maryland and then returned to Georgetown. He is now completing his eligibility at Penn State. The 6-foot-11, 245-pound native of Lagos, Nigeria, is Penn State’s third-leading scorer at 9.2 points per game and its leading rebounder at eight per game. He’s shooting an efficient 62.6 percent on 2s and has a team-high 30 blocked shots.

A few names to know off the bench are Puff Johnson, Leo O’Boyle and Demetrius Lilley. Johnson transferred from North Carolina and is the younger brother of NBA wing Cam Johnson. The 6-foot-8 forward is just 14-for-53 on 3s. O’Boyle, a 6-foot-7 forward, played four seasons at Lafayette and has struggled in his fifth and final season. He’s shooting just 29.8 percent from the field. Lilley, the third returning Penn State player from the Shrewsberry, is a 6-foot-10 center who can provide backup minutes for Wahab.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

All stats are via KenPom.com and we’re now using only stats from Big Ten games. Stats are updated through Wednesday’s games.

Penn State’s style is entirely different under Rhoades, emphasizing pushing the pace and forcing turnovers. The Nittany Lions play the third-fastest tempo in the Big Ten and lead the league in forcing turnovers.

Penn State also takes a good amount of 3s, with 37.8 percent of its field goal attempts coming from behind the arc. Making 3s, however, has been a struggle. Penn State is shooting 29.7 percent from 3 in conference games, 12th in the league.

The rest of the Penn State profile on KenPom is ugly. The Nittany Lions are 12th or worse in two of the offensive “four factors” and 12th or worse in three of the defensive “four factors.” Penn State is a poor rebounding team on both ends and because of its aggressive defense, it commits a lot of fouls. Big Ten opponents have a free throw rate of 42.8 percent against Penn State.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection is Indiana by four with a 66 percent chance of a Hoosier victory. Per Pomeroy, this is the last game on the schedule with a projected IU victory. However, there are six other contests where Indiana is projected to have at least a 31 percent chance of winning.

It’s hard to know what Indiana’s roster will look like Saturday, given the injuries to Malik Reneau and Xavier Johnson in the Iowa game. In a media availability Friday morning, Mike Woodson didn’t have a firm update on the status of either player.

Depth is a legitimate concern and it’s imperative that Indiana takes care of the ball on Saturday. Penn State thrives on creating turnovers and the Hoosiers must play at their pace and keep the Nittany Lions from getting easy buckets in transition.

(Photo credit: Penn State Athletics)

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