Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of February 14, 2023

  • 02/14/2023 8:09 am in

As has been the case for a few years now, the NCAA tournament selection committee will reveal its top 16 teams this Saturday, which will give us some insight as to where teams stand with just a few weeks until Selection Sunday. It can also give a glimpse into what this iteration of the committee might be prioritizing when seeding teams.

Due to some personal commitments, I didn’t have time to write up much about this week’s bracket or the bubble, so this version will be a lot less verbose. Things will be back to normal next week.

Before we get to the bracket, here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351

The Bracket

The projections below are based on all games played through February 13, 2023. Following the bracket, I included my current last four in and first four out.

LOUISVILLE (SOUTH) KANSAS CITY (MIDWEST)
Birmingham – March 16/18 Columbus – March 17/19
1) Alabama 1) Purdue
16) Howard / F. Dickinson 16) Morehead St. / Alcorn St.
8) Florida Atlantic
 8) NC State
9) Oklahoma St. 9) Arkansas
Albany – March 17/19 Orlando – March 16/18
5) Indiana
 5) Saint Mary’s
12) Liberty 12) Southern Miss.
4) Marquette 4) Iowa St.
13) VCU 13) Utah Valley
Sacramento – March 16/18 Greensboro – March 17/19
6) Rutgers 6) Illinois
11) New Mexico / Texas A&M 11) Memphis
3) Gonzaga 3) Tennessee
14) UC Santa Barbara 14) Colgate
Des Moines – March 16/18 Denver – March 17/19
7) Missouri 7) Northwestern
10) Pittsburgh 10) Nevada
2) Baylor 2) Texas
15) Vermont
 15) UNC-Asheville
NEW YORK (EAST) LAS VEGAS (WEST)
Des Moines – March 16/18 Birmingham – March 16/18
1) Kansas 1) Houston
16) Milwaukee 16) Texas A&M-CC
8) Maryland 8) Duke
9) Auburn 9) Providence
Albany – March 17/19 Orlando – March 16/18
5) Miami (FL) 5) TCU
12) Kent St. 12) Oral Roberts
4) Xavier 4) Connecticut
13) Drake 13) Hofstra
Greensboro – March 17/19 Columbus – March 17/19
6) Creighton 6) San Diego St.
11) Mississippi St.
 11) Kentucky / Wisconsin
3) Virginia 3) Kansas St.
14) Yale 14) Furman
Sacramento – March 16/18 Denver – March 17/19
7) Michigan St. 7) Iowa
10) Boise St. 10) West Virginia
2) UCLA 2) Arizona
15) E. Washington 15) Rider

Last Four In:

Texas A&M

New Mexico

Wisconsin

Kentucky

First Four Out:

North Carolina

USC

Clemson

Oregon

Conference Breakdown:

Big Ten (9): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin

Big 12 (8): Baylor, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, West Virginia

SEC (8): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M

ACC (5): Duke, Miami (FL), North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Virginia

Big East (5): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, Providence, Xavier

Mountain West (4): Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State

American (2): Houston, Memphis

Pac-12 (2): Arizona, UCLA

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

Atlantic 10: VCU

America East: Vermont

Atlantic Sun: Liberty

Big Sky: Eastern Washington

Big South: UNC Asheville

Big West: UC Santa Barbara

Colonial: Hofstra

Conference USA: Florida Atlantic

Horizon: Milwaukee

Ivy: Yale

MAAC: Rider

MAC: Kent State

MEAC: Howard

Missouri Valley: Drake

Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson

Ohio Valley: Morehead State

Patriot: Colgate

Southern: Furman

Southland: Texas A&M-CC

SWAC: Alcorn State

Summit: Oral Roberts

Sun Belt: Southern Miss

WAC: Utah Valley

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

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