Tourney Watch: Hoosiers on the rise following Iowa win

  • 02/16/2016 12:04 pm in

We’re back for our fourth installment of “Tourney Watch” as Indiana gets set for games this week at home against Nebraska and Purdue.

In our weekly feature that will continue up until Selection Sunday on March 13, we take a look at IU’s current nitty gritty profile, updated bracket projections and much more.


At 20-6, Indiana split a pair of games last week – an impressive 85-78 win over Iowa at Assembly Hall and then a 88-69 blowout loss to Michigan State in East Lansing. The win on Thursday was significant for the Hoosiers as it provided a major boost in the computers given Iowa’s stature nationally. The Hoosiers still have three more chances to pick up resume building wins with games against Purdue, Iowa (road) and Maryland remaining on the schedule.

Nitty Gritty Profile

· Record: 20-6 (10-3 Big Ten)
· RPI: 36
· SOS: 102 (via CBS)
· Home Record: 14-0
· Away Record: 4-4
· Neutral Court Record: 2-2
· vs. RPI Top 50: 3-3 (via Crashing the Dance)
· vs. RPI Top 51-100: 4-0 (via Crashing the Dance)

The biggest change since our last update? IU’s RPI went up nearly 20 spots and it now has three RPI top 50 wins with a fourth (Michigan) right on the fringe. Purdue and Maryland at home provide the Hoosiers with two more chances to pick up signature wins inside the friendly confines of Assembly Hall.

Current Projections

· Assembly Call (Andy Bottoms): 6 seed in East Region vs. LSU in Providence (Updated 2/16)
· ESPN Bracketology (Joe Lunardi): 6 seed in West Region vs. Temple in Spokane (Updated 2/15)
· CBS Sports (Jerry Palm): 6 seed in Midwest Region vs. First Four winner in Brooklyn (Updated 2/14)
· Crashing the Dance: No. 24 overall seed
· Bracket Matrix: Top No. 7 seed

The Hoosiers are a No. 6 seed currently in each of the three projections we follow and are the top No. 7 seed on the Bracket Matrix, which tracks nearly every projection on the web. What Indiana needs to avoid is falling down into the 8 or 9-seed range as a second round meeting with a No. 1 seed is a recipe for an early exit.

Final record projections is sticking with a 23-8 and 13-5 finish from Indiana in the regular season. His model actually projects the Hoosiers to go 4-1 the rest of the way, but with win probability percentages in the low 60s against Purdue and Maryland and a pair of road games, the final record accounts for the potential of an additional slip up. has the three most likely final regular season records for IU as: 23-8 (36.7%), 24-7 (32%) and 22-9 (19.1%). In its regular Tuesday update, The Only Colors gives Indiana an 83.8% chance of a top four finish in the Big Ten, which is an increase of 15.9 percent from last week. A top four finish would mean a double bye to Friday in the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis.

A look at the conference as a whole

· Maryland (21-4, RPI 6): The Terps are a lock for the tournament and while they’re now a long shot to win the Big Ten following a home loss to Wisconsin, this is a team that is still in great position and could even climb higher depending on how the rest of the season plays out.
· Iowa (20-5, RPI 10): The Hawkeyes are in the driver’s seat for the Big Ten regular season championship and a top three seed in the tournament. Fortunately for Iowa, there’s a tournament site this year in Des Moines so they should have a huge advantage in the opening weekend.
· Michigan State (21-5, RPI 17): Surprise, surprise. Here comes Michigan State as March approaches. The Spartans are projected to win out in the regular season by KenPom and a three-seed is the current projection.
· Purdue (20-6, RPI 20): The Boilermakers are another team that is a lock, but they’re going to have to earn their seed the rest of the way. Purdue still travels to Indiana and has home games with Maryland and Wisconsin remaining.
· Wisconsin (16-9, RPI 46): The Badgers are the hottest team in the league and are now projected to be in the field by nearly everyone. The schedule is difficult to close with trips to Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue left, but this team appears to be peaking at just the right time.
· Michigan (19-7, RPI 52): Michigan would certainly be in the field if it were selected today, but the Wolverines are far from a lock. Besides a home game against Northwestern, Michigan’s schedule is brutal to finish with trips to Ohio State, Maryland and Wisconsin still to come and a home game against Iowa.

2016 Tournament Sites 

· First Four: Dayton
· First, second rounds: Brooklyn, Denver, Des Moines, Oklahoma City, Providence, Raleigh, Spokane, St. Louis
· Regional: Anaheim, Chicago, Louisville, Philadelphia
· Final Four: Houston

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  • inLinE6

    #7 seed sounds like a good one to win it all in April.

  • Hoosierkamp

    Going to be a wild tourney. Need Yogi to be hot at the time and a lot can happen……. No team in unbeatable

  • O.G.Ehman

    LSU in the first round would be terrifying.

    I still believe we’ll be a 5 seed when it’s all said and done

  • BT

    I know the significance of the Big 10 tournament is debatable, but I would really like to see a strong showing from IU for once.

  • Hoosierkamp

    5 is this tourney would be fine with me

  • Hoosierkamp

    100% agree. I hate stinknig in the tourney. A deep tourney run could move IU to a 3/4 line depending on winning all our home games as well

  • Shaggy_C

    Not sure a second round game against a #1 is any more terrifying than any other team in the tournament, at least the way the Hoosiers are playing. They just got massacred by a projected #3 seed. For this team it’s all going to come down to matchups. I’ll take a battle against the #1 seed any day if it’s a team that plays to our strengths. Put us up against a slow, deliberate team that capitalizes on turnovers and strong interior play and we’re going to be in trouble whether they’re a #1 or a #16.

  • pcantidote

    We’re still anywhere from a 1 seed to NIT. Long way to go.

  • Shaggy_C

    Slightly off-topic question, but anyone have a feeling about how the location for the rist and second round games will be determined? Would love a chance to see IU playing in NYC again this year – we were lucky with the multiple games in MSG and then the Pinstripe Bowl this winter. Des Moines and St. Louis are likely the closest but as a lower seed I don’t think the selection committee is going to put too much effort into keeping us “close to home”.

  • Shaggy_C

    I think the conference tourney can be quite significant – losing in the first round of the smaller tournament could well eject a team from the big dance, depending on the opponent. It was just a few years ago that SMU got snubbed for losing out their last three games despite being ranked something like #18 in the country just a few weeks prior.

  • bleeding crimson

    Great response, we always suck in the B1G t. If we do get a big run in the B1G t then that could make up for any stupid mistakes in the rest of the season.

  • Ole Man

    A one seed? How? And please don’t say by winning out.

  • Sarasota Hoosier

    Good Troy Williams is the key, when he plays well, Yogi and the rest of the team do as well.

  • Pianoroark

    A one seed is not possible with our bad losses. I’d also argue we won’t compare well with the other teams in consideration for a one seed when it comes to high-quality wins, even if we were to win out.

  • ArghSonOfOhCrap

    I truly think the OT loss at Whiskey was our worst loss. PSU was bad but we should have had that Whiskey game we had the momentum. I am also biased because I still have flashes of Brusawits every time we play them.

  • NC Hoosier

    Penn State loss was way worse than the one at Wisconsin. The Wisconsin loss won’t hurt our seeding. The Penn State loss will.

  • Gregory J. Haggard

    I told myself after Maui if we finished with single digit losses it would be a successful season.
    I still feel that way so making the tournament at all is good.
    I also still feel this team could win or lose to anybody, so who knows.

  • David Macer

    Love your optimism !!

  • pcantidote

    I am by no means saying that I we will win out, just as don’t think we will lose out. What I am saying is that both of those are at least possible in theory and thus we could be a 1 seed or in the NIT. What I really think is that we will end up 23-10 after the B1G tourney, and probably a 6 seed.

  • pcantidote

    That is a silly statement. If we are 28-6 with a B1G regular season and tournament title, we are a LOCK for a 1 seed.

  • pcantidote

    Apparently you stopped reading after 1 seed 🙂

  • b_side

    I’d say there’s a pretty significant difference between getting massacred at home by a #3 seed who wins 90% of their games at Breslin vs. facing them, or any 3 seed for that matter, on a neutral court. Hoosier fans travel in waves too.

  • b_side

    Hoping for Barclays and Philly as well being a transplant in NYC. Try as we might to find out where ahead of time, we won’t know a thing till Selection Sunday.

  • BL

    We’re going to win the next three and go into Iowa City with the BIG title on the line. OG is going to shut down Uthoff and we’re going to beat them for the 2nd time this year. Senior night against Maryland is going to be insane.

  • BL

    Here comes the Buckeyes. Well sort of – they have a brutal schedule to close – at Neb, vs. Iowa, and home/away vs. MSU. Love to see them knock off Iowa.

  • BL

    While anxiously awaiting tomorrow’s game, pulled together an interesting comparison of BIG stats for TW, CH and OG.

    FG% – TW 45%; CH 48%; OG 57%
    3FG% – TW 26%; CH 49%; OG 44%
    Points/Min – TW .43; CH .26; OG .43
    Rebounds/Min – TW .23; CH .13; OG .21
    Net Additional Impact (A+Blks+Stls-TO’s) TW -3; CH +16; OG +27

    1. CH and OG are most efficient scoring the ball with outstanding FG and 3FG percentages.
    2. TW and OG score and rebound at the highest rate per minute (almost identical stats).
    3. TW has more TO’s (34) than the sum of assists, blocks and steals or a -3 net additional impact in 322 minutes played. OG has a +27 net additional impact including 10 blocks and 16 steals in 197 minutes played. For comparison sake, YF has a +51 net additional impact in 465 minutes played.

  • Bill Graham

    What no stats for Priller?!

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Just win the next damn game.

  • BL

    My bad 🙂

  • Ole Man

    I think your last prediction is very realistic.