Indiana vs. the Big Ten: Team stats

  • 12/04/2012 8:10 am in

The Big Ten season starts in less than a month. Every men’s basketball team has played at least six games; seven have played either seven or eight games. That puts more than half the conference at or near the quarter turn of the regular season.

With this in mind, a look at where Indiana is stacking up in a host of statistical categories vs. its Big Ten foes through Sunday’s games. It’s a little early to draw any grand conclusions just yet from all this, but from available non-conference data at present, here’s a look:

Team Adjusted Offensive Efficiency National Ranking Big Ten Ranking
Indiana 121.5 1 1
Michigan 117.4 3 2
Ohio State 115.4 7 3
Wisconsin 114.1 10 4
Minnesota 112.9 13 5
Illinois 109.2 33 6
Michigan State 108.3 39 7
Iowa 106.7 59 8
Purdue 105.4 74 9
Northwestern 103.1 106 10
Penn State 99.3 173 11
Nebraska 97.6 199 12

Despite a 5-3 record, Wisconsin sports the 10th best offense in the country and the 23rd best defense (see below). The Kohl Center is never an easy place to play — although one of the Badgers’ losses does come at home already this season (Virginia) — so it’ll be interesting to see what the team is able to do come conference time. And if you needed any further proof that the Big Ten is good, look no further than it having five of the top 13 offenses in the country.

Team Adjusted Defensive Efficiency National Ranking Big Ten Ranking
Indiana 86.4 5 1
Michigan St. 86.6 6 2
Ohio State 87.5 10 3
Minnesota 89.9 19 4
Wisconsin 90.0 23 5
Michigan 90.9 30 6
Purdue 91.5 34 7
Illinois 93.1 53 8
Iowa 94.7 74 9
Northwestern 94.9 77 10
Penn State 96.1 103 11
Nebraska 99.8 186 12

Michigan State’s defense — which finished third nationally last season — is back, just behind Indiana’s and good for sixth in the country. With a 13th ranked offense and 19th ranked defense, Minnesota is looking like it could make some noise once Big Ten season hits. Michigan is getting a lot of deserved buzz of late for their strong start after some thought they were ranked a bit too high to start the year. While their offense has been crazy efficient (third in the nation), a 30th ranked defense has room to improve. Penn State and Nebraska? Well, neither team is very good.

Team Adjusted Tempo National Ranking Big Ten Ranking
Iowa 68.6 95 1
Indiana 68.6 99 2
Illinois 67.5 151 3
Ohio State 67.0 175 4
Purdue 66.7 186 5
Minnesota 66.2 34 6
Michigan State 65.4 244 8
Penn State 64.0 291 9
Northwestern 63.2 315 9
Michigan 62.4 330 10
Nebraska 62.3 331 11
Wisconsin 62.0 335 12

We know Indiana is getting out and going on offense whenever possible, but Iowa is playing a touch faster pace right now. (Well, actually: Both teams are at an adjusted tempo of 68.6 possessions per game. Wondering if Iowa is given a higher ranking here because of some decimals after “.6”.) Wisconsin is playing at its normal plodding pace, and Michigan — which has played pretty slow in the John Beilein era — is back among the slowest-paced teams in the nation as well.

Team eFG% National Ranking Big Ten Ranking
Michigan 58.3 5 1
Indiana 58.0 6 2
Illinois 55.4 19 3
Ohio State 52.4 46 4
Michigan State 52.3 48 5
Wisconsin 51.7 64 6
Minnesota 50.7 86 7
Nebraska 50.3 106 8
Northwestern 50.1 110 9
Iowa 49.3 144 10
Purdue 46.0 228 11
Penn State 41.6 321 12

The Wolverines are just eclipsing the Hoosiers in eFG%, no doubt helped along by freshman Nik Stauskas — who’s shooting the lights out so far. The Illini’s 8-0 start has been helped along by some strong shooting from distance. Some of Purdue’s early struggles so far this season can be traced to poor shooting.

Team Free throw rate (FTA/FGA) National Ranking Big Ten Ranking
Indiana 48.7 18 1
Minnesota 48.5 19 2
Iowa 48.2 24 3
Penn State 42.5 76 4
Ohio State 37.1 153 5
Michigan State 34.4 187 6
Northwestern 33.3 207 7
Purdue 32.9 215 8
Michigan 31.8 243 9
Nebraska 30.7 268 10
Wisconsin 30.1 279 11
Illinois 30.0 281 12

Indiana continues to get to the line at a strong rate, but Minnesota and Iowa are excelling in this facet of the game as well.

Some other numbers of note: Michigan is doing a good job at keeping opponents off the line; their defensive free throw rate of 17.1 is tops in the nation. Michigan State’s had some issues with the ball. Its turnover percentage of 22.7% is 240th in the nation. Opponents are stealing the ball from them on 14.5% of its possessions — a dismal 338th in the country. The Spartans are also seeing 10.7% of their shots blocked per game, which ranks 234th. Minnesota weaknesses are similar — a turnover percentage of 22.7% (243rd) and an offensive steal percentage of 13.0% (312th). The Gophers are also weak at controlling the defensive boards. Opponents are gobbling up 39.2% of available offense rebounds against them, good for just 327th nationally.

All stats from as of the afternoon of Monday, December 3.

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  • Oldguyy

    It’s my understanding that defensive efficiency ratings are significantly less reliable than offensive due to the paucity of data upon which they are based. For instance, it is generally not recorded who is guarding the shooter. Correct?

  • Kyle Brown

    For the most part they are collected from the same data as offensive ratings. Points per possession opponents have scored. Sometimes they are adjusted for the offensive rating of each particular opponent.

  • Arch_Puddington

    It would be interesting to see where our defense ranked at this time a year ago. We ended up 64th, but since that number included all of our conference games we can’t yet say what our current #5 ranking means. We are better, but are we really 59 spots better? If there was a way to see where we were after 8 games last season, at which point we had played a very similar schedule to this year (6 cupcakes, 2 respectable opponents), we might be able to better discern whether/how much we have improved.

  • Evansville Hoosier

    From what I’ve seen of the B1G so far out of conference, not much has changed in my projections for the end of the year:
    1. Indiana
    2. Michigan
    3. Ohio State
    4. Michigan State
    5. Minnesota
    6. Wisconsin
    7. Illinois
    8. Northwestern
    9. Iowa
    10. Purdue
    11. Nebraska
    12. Penn State

    I know this is lengthy, but a couple notes:
    -I haven’t seen enough yet to put Minnesota over Michigan State. I like Minny’s roster (I like the Spartans better) and the way they are playing, but MSU always turns it up come conference time and Izzo will have them finishing as high as 3rd IMO.
    -Illinois is shooting at a torrid pace; they have basically the same roster as last year, and I’m not convinced they can keep this up in conference play. That said, kudos to John Groce thus far.
    -Wisconsin won’t stay down much longer. As much as I hate that guy, his team will over perform in the meat of the season.
    -Iowa, Northwestern and Purdue have disappointed me. This was supposed to be Iowa’s leap year; I guess they need another to develop.

    -I’ve seen boiler fans saying this team is young and in a few years they’ll be contending for a final four. Don’t get me wrong, I like Hammons and Ronnie, but is them plus some above average wings final four worthy? I’m not thinking so, but only time will tell.

    Whoo! Long-winded. Sorry. Just excited for conference play! #BringOnIowa

  • Evansville Hoosier

    we did hold UNC to 1-20 shooting at one point in the second half… I think the statistic may say more than you’re thinking; a lot of the teams in the top 10 in defensive efficiency have played a lot of cupcakes. Now, do I think we’ll finish top 5 in adjusted D? Maybe. Do I think if we had a slight drop off, maybe down to 15, that we would still have the best O/D split in the country? Yes.

    BUT, from the intensity I’ve see on D this year, something is different this year. Staying top 10 all year wouldn’t surprise me. Add that to by far the best offense… And things get scary

  • It all looks good but remember strength of schedule so far. The difference a good opponent vs a bad one in just one game can explain a few percent. Still one can’t help but like it.

  • jayrig5

    Wisconsin always gets a bump in Pomeroy’s ratings that it doesn’t necessarily deserve.

  • I like the defensive stats and I use them when picking for NCAA tourney. Defense usually wins games at crucial tmes. Having said that I do think our schedule may make us look better than we are. On the other hand when Peter and Perrea get involved the D may actually improve.
    My projections – Indiana, michigan state, michigan, osu, minny, whiskey in that order then with purdue and Illini on the bubble come march.

  • repairmanjack

    I followed their defensive rating all year. They bounced around between 38 and 68 last year. I said it twice now, no team has won the NC in the last 10 years with offensive ratings higher than 19 and defensive ratings higher that 18. Keep an eye on those numbers.

  • Arch_Puddington

    Thanks! I suspected somebody would know this, and it confirms what I would have guessed. I don’t believe we will stay at #5 once conference play begins, although we will get some defensive help when Jurkin, Perea, and Elston return. If we stay even in the top 15, which I think is entirely possible, I’ll take our chances.

  • HoosierBurch

    So is Nebraska the first or second “Minnesota” in the eFG column?

  • CreamandCrimson

    I agree with most of your points. Michigan State has a personnel problem right now. Izzo wants to get his best five on the floor (makes sense). However, Nix and Payne are not effective together. They also don’t have very many people who can stretch the floor. Harris is a very good shooter and they will improve when he gets healthy and Izzo will make sure they are very tough to beat but they aren’t very good right now.

    Iowa has the same issue they had last season. They are having a hard time stopping anybody. They also appear to be having a hard time replacing the perimeter shooting Gatens provided. I do think they will finish ahead of Northwestern though. The Wildcats lost to UIC…at home…44-43. Yikes.

    I think Bo Ryan is a tremendous coach and his teams always finish in the top four in the conference. That being said, they are struggling right now. They aren’t playing very good defense and the Josh Gasser injury really hurts them at point guard.

  • DeeLyle

    Wisconsin 10th best offense in the country? Impossible!

  • SCHoosier

    MSU I think is really missing D. Greene as their floor leader..

  • NotTheRealSteveEyl

    Is there any way to adjust this for strength of schedule.?

    As much as I want to get on the bandwagon, and I know our team is good, the wait for real games is driving me insane.

    True, we have dispatched everyone we have played, and I get how the scheduling game is played, but I keep thinking “Maybe NC is just not good this year” -they have beaten no one. And Georgetown playing in the worst shot clock era game last week (v. Tenn.) didn’t help my line of thinking.

    I guess what I’m saying is that I can’t wait for the big ten to start and I am also terrified of the big ten starting.

  • Kenneth234

    I was just looking at Georgetown’s schedule thus far to gain some perspective of our teams offense efficiency. In Georgetown’s 6 wins thus far they have held their opponents to an average of 50 ppg. We put up 82 against them, granted not just in regulation but still! Sure UCLA got 70 on them, but I would have to say that the game they played against us was a turning point in their season. Consider that since our game they have held three opponents to an average of 42 ppg.