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With statement win against Illinois, IU football vaults into College Football Playoff conversation

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Photos of IU football vs. Illinois football at Memorial Stadium on September 20, 2025.

IU football’s statement win against No. 9 Illinois on Saturday night at Memorial Stadium has the Hoosiers back in the conversation for the College Football Playoff.

The Hoosiers crushed the Fighting Illini 63-10 in front of more than 56,000 fans. In the latest ESPN FPI ratings, Indiana surged to No. 6 nationally and now has a 57.4 percent chance to make the playoff.

Here’s a look at several updated College Football Playoff projections following week four games:

ESPN.com – Dinich

Heather Dinich of the World Wide Leader has IU at No. 11 after Saturday’s win: “The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.”

ESPN.com – Connelly

Based solely on SP+ resume thus far, Indiana is the projected No. 1 (!) seed. Although, to be fair, Connelly himself admits: “Resume rankings after 4 weeks are pointless. This is a harmless exercise.”

The Athletic

The Athletic has the Hoosiers with a 26 percent chance to reach the playoff after Saturday’s win against Illinois and at No. 19 overall.

CBSSports.com

Indiana is up to No. 11 in the latest CBSSports.com projections with a projected CFP matchup against No. 6 seed Oregon.

Here’s what CBS said about the Hoosiers: “The “last team in” designation this week goes to the Hoosiers after their notable nationally-ranked win over Illinois. Let’s say the Hoosiers hypothetically finish 11-1 again during the regular season but fail to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. This time around, that would mean Indiana has two ranked victories under its belt with Oregon or Penn State being the other and the Hoosiers would have a winning argument over, perhaps, a two-loss Georgia Tech. Bad news for the Yellow Jackets would be both of their projected losses — Georgia and in the ACC title game — would come the final two weekends the selection committee views these teams. There’s much to sort out in the coming weeks.”

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