Football

A look at Week 11 SP+ projections for Big Ten football

Alex Bozich
0
Photos from IU football's 23-16 overtime win against Minnesota at Memorial Stadium.
J. Scott Photography

The 2026 Big Ten football schedule is entering the stretch run.

Two teams – Indiana and UCLA – control their own destiny to reach the final Big Ten championship game next month in Indianapolis.

This weekend’s most notable games: Illinois at UCLA, Northwestern at Ohio State and USC at Indiana.

Here’s a look at SP+ projections for Week 10 games featuring Big Ten programs:

(All final score projections are rounded.)

Illinois at UCLA (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, FOX)

Projected score: UCLA 33, Illinois 18
Projected margin: UCLA by 14.7
Win probability: 82 percent

Northwestern at Ohio State (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, FOX)

Projected score: Ohio State 33, Northwestern 19
Projected margin: Ohio State by 14.2
Win probability: 81 percent

Wisconsin at Maryland (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, FS1)

Projected score: Wisconsin 28, Maryland 19
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 8.7
Win probability: 71 percent

Nebraska at Rutgers (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, BTN)

Projected score: Nebraska 37, Rutgers 16
Projected margin: Nebraska by 21.1
Win probability: 91 percent

Michigan at Oregon (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)

Projected score: Oregon 26, Michigan 17
Projected margin: Oregon by 9.3
Win probability: 72 percent

USC at Indiana (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

Projected score: Indiana 31, USC 20
Projected margin: Indiana by 10.2
Win probability: 74 percent

Washington at Michigan State (Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET, BTN)

Projected score: Washington 28, Michigan State 19
Projected margin: Washington by 8.8
Win probability: 71 percent

Minnesota at Penn State (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, FS1)

Projected score: Penn State 28, Minnesota 17
Projected margin: Penn State by 10.6
Win probability: 75 percent

Purdue at Iowa (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

Projected score: Iowa 36, Purdue 15
Projected margin: Iowa by 21.3
Win probability: 91 percent