A look at Week 5 SP+ projections for Big Ten football

Photos from IU football vs. Northwestern on September 25, 2026 at Memorial Stadium.

The 2026 Big Ten football schedule continues this weekend with eight conference games.

Last weekend, conference play was highlighted by Iowa’s thrilling 20-19 win at Michigan, Oregon’s 41-27 win at USC and Wisconsin’s fourth-quarter rally to beat Penn State on the road, 24-20.

Two Big Ten teams are on a bye this week – UCLA and Oregon. The Bruins and Ducks will meet in Week 6 at Autzen Stadium.

Here’s a look at SP+ projections for Week 5 games featuring Big Ten programs:

(All final score projections are rounded.)

Penn State at Northwestern (Friday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX)

Projected score: Penn State 28, Northwestern 21
Projected margin: Penn State by 7.1
Win probability: 67 percent

Michigan at Minnesota (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, FOX)

Projected score: Michigan 26, Minnesota 20
Projected margin: Michigan by 5.3
Win probability: 63 percent

Michigan State at Wisconsin (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, BTN)

Projected score: Wisconsin 28, Michigan State 19
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 9.1
Win probability: 72 percent

Ohio State at Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

Projected score: Ohio State 30, Iowa 19
Projected margin: Ohio State by 11.5
Win probability: 76 percent

Maryland at Nebraska (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, FS1)

Projected score: Nebraska 34, Maryland 19
Projected margin: Nebraska by 15.6
Win probability: 84 percent

Purdue at Illinois (Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET, BTN)

Projected score: Illinois 40, Purdue 22
Projected margin: Illinois by 17.5
Win probability: 86 percent

Washington at USC (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

Projected score: USC 32, Washington 24
Projected margin: USC by 8.2
Win probability: 70 percent

Indiana at Rutgers (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, BTN)

Projected score: Indiana 42, Rutgers 16
Projected margin: Indiana by 26
Win probability: 95 percent

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