Updated ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for IU football following 4-0 start

Photos from IU football's 38-0 win against Western Kentucky at Memorial Stadium.

IU football is 4-0 after beating North Texas 52-16, Howard 55-0, Western Kentucky 38-0 and Northwestern 29-23 to start the 2026 season.

The Hoosiers continue Big Ten play on Saturday night in primetime against Rutgers at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey.

IU began the season ranked No. 6 in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) and were No. 5 after Week 3. After Week 3, Indiana fell two spots to No. 7 behind Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, Miami (FL) and Alabama.

Here are updated FPI game-by-game projections for IU’s eight remaining games:

Week 5 – at Rutgers (October 3)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 96.6%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 92.9%
Percentage change since last week: Decreased from 97.4% to 96.6% (-0.8%)

Week 6 – at Nebraska (October 10)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 67.5%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 81.0%
Percentage change since last week: Decreased from 72.6% to 67.5% (-5.1%)

Week 7 – Ohio State (October 17)

Prediction: IU loss
IU’s percentage chance to win: 45.7%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 39.2%
Percentage change since last week: Increased from 45.4% to 45.7% (+0.3%)

Week 8 – at Michigan (October 24)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 75.4%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 65.5%
Percentage change since last week: Increased from 72.1% to 75.4% (+3.3%)

Week 9 – Minnesota (October 31)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 95.7%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 95.6%
Percentage change since last week: Decreased from 96.2% to 95.7% (-0.5%)

Week 11 – USC (November 14)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 84.0%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 77.3%
Percentage change since last week: Increased from 83.2% to 84.0% (+0.8%)

Week 12 – at Washington (November 21)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 88.1%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 76.2%
Percentage change since last week: Increased from 86.4% to 88.1% (+1.7%)

Week 13 – Purdue (November 28)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 97.4%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 96.1%
Percentage change since last week: Increased from 97.0% to 97.4% (+0.4%)

The ESPN FPI projection remains an 11-1 regular season for the Hoosiers, with a loss to Ohio State at Memorial Stadium.

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