Updated ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for IU football after 3-0 start

Photos from IU football's 38-0 win against Western Kentucky at Memorial Stadium.

IU football is 3-0 after beating North Texas 52-16, Howard 55-0 and Western Kentucky 38-0 in non-conference games to begin the 2026 season.

The Hoosiers begin Big Ten play on Friday night against Northwestern at Memorial Stadium.

IU began the season ranked No. 6 in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) and rose one spot to No. 5 after Week 3. The Hoosiers flipped spots in the FPI with Miami (FL).

Here are updated FPI game-by-game projections for IU’s nine remaining games:

Week 4 – Northwestern (September 25)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 89.5%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 95.0%
Percentage change since last week: Decreased from 95.6% to 89.5% (-6.1%)

Week 5 – at Rutgers (October 3)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 97.4%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 92.9%
Percentage change since last week: Decreased from 98% to 97.4% (-0.6%)

Week 6 – at Nebraska (October 10)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 72.6%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 81.0%
Percentage change since last week: Decreased from 72.8% to 72.6% (-0.2%)

Week 7 – Ohio State (October 17)

Prediction: IU loss
IU’s percentage chance to win: 45.4%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 39.2%
Percentage change since last week: Increased from 40.5% to 45.4% (+4.9%)

Week 8 – at Michigan (October 24)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 72.1%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 65.5%
Percentage change since last week: Decreased from 74.8% to 72.1% (-2.7%)

Week 9 – Minnesota (October 31)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 96.2%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 95.6%
Percentage change since last week: Decreased from 97.3% to 96.2% (-1.1%)

Week 11 – USC (November 14)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 83.2%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 77.3%
Percentage change since last week: Increased from 81.1% to 83.2% (+2.1%)

Week 12 – at Washington (November 21)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 86.4%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 76.2%
Percentage change since last week: Decreased from 87.3% to 86.4% (-0.9%)

Week 13 – Purdue (November 28)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 97.0%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 96.1%
Percentage change since last week: Increased from 96.8% to 97.0% (+0.2%)

The ESPN FPI projection remains an 11-1 regular season for the Hoosiers, with a loss to Ohio State at Memorial Stadium.

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