Updated ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for IU football’s 2026 season

Photos from IU football's 52-16 win against North Texas at Memorial Stadium.

IU football is 1-0 with after crushing North Texas 52-16 to open the 2026 season.

The Hoosiers return to action on Saturday afternoon to take on an FCS opponent, Howard, at Memorial Stadium.

IU began the season ranked No. 6 in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) and remains there. The top five teams are currently Texas, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Miami (FL) and Georgia.

Here are updated FPI game-by-game projections for IU’s 11 remaining games:

Week 2 – Howard (September 12)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 99.0%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 99.0%

Week 3 – Western Kentucky (September 19)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 99.0%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 97.6%

Week 4 – Northwestern (September 25)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 95.0%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 95.0%

Week 5 – at Rutgers (October 3)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 97.7%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 92.9%

Week 6 – at Nebraska (October 10)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 78.4%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 81.0%

Week 7 – Ohio State (October 17)

Prediction: IU loss
IU’s percentage chance to win: 38.8%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 39.2%

Week 8 – at Michigan (October 24)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 78.4%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 65.5%

Week 9 – Minnesota (October 31)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 95.3%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 95.6%

Week 11 – USC (November 14)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 78.6%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 77.3%

Week 12 – at Washington (November 21)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 79.4%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 76.2%

Week 13 – Purdue (November 28)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 96.9%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 96.1%

The ESPN FPI projection has the Hoosiers finishing 11-1 with a loss to Ohio State.

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