ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for IU’s 2026 football season

IU football kicks off the 2026 season on Saturday, September 5, against North Texas at Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.

The ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) is live for the 2026 season with matchup predictions for all 12 games on the schedule.

IU is ranked No. 6 in the FPI.

Last season, IU was ranked No. 26 in the preseason FPI and projected to finish the regular season 9-3. The Hoosiers went 12-0 and then won four postseason games en route to the national championship.

Here’s a game-by-game look at the projections for the Hoosiers:

Week 1 – North Texas (September 5)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 98.2%

Week 2 – Howard (September 12)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 99.0%

Week 3 – Western Kentucky (September 19)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 97.6%

Week 4 – Northwestern (September 25)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 95.0%

Week 5 – at Rutgers (October 3)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 92.9%

Week 6 – at Nebraska (October 10)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 81.0%

Week 7 – Ohio State (October 17)

Prediction: IU loss
IU’s percentage chance to win: 39.2%

Week 8 – at Michigan (October 24)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 65.5%

Week 9 – Minnesota (October 31)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 95.6%

Week 11 – USC (November 14)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 77.3%

Week 12 – at Washington (November 21)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 76.2%

Week 13 – Purdue (November 28)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s percentage chance to win: 96.1%

The ESPN FPI projection has the Hoosiers at 11-1, with wins over every team except Ohio State.

(Photo credit: IU Athletics)

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