Bracketology: Final NCAA tournament projection as of March 15th, 2026

NCAA tournament ball rack.

Thanks for following along this season and during another entertaining Championship Week.

The projections below are based on all games played through March 15th, 2026. Following the bracket, I included my First Four Out. I won’t completely rule out Auburn or Oklahoma making the field, but anyone else would be pretty shocking.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-365 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-365 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-365

WASHINGTON, DC (EAST)		CHICAGO (MIDWEST)
Greenville – March 19/21		Buffalo – March 19/21
1) Duke*		1) Michigan
16) Lehigh* / Prairie View*		16) Queens*
8) TCU		8) Georgia
9) Villanova		9) UCF

Portland – March 19/21		Tampa – March 20/22
5) Wisconsin		5) St. John’s*
12) Northern Iowa*		12) McNeese*
4) Kansas		4) Vanderbilt
13) Cal Baptist*		13) North Dakota St.*

St. Louis – March 20/22		Oklahoma City – March 19/21
6) North Carolina		6) Louisville
11) Miami (OH) / Texas		11) South Florida*
3) Illinois		3) Nebraska
14) Penn*		14) Wright St.*

Philadelphia – March 20/22		St. Louis – March 20/22
7) Miami (FL)		7) Kentucky
10) Saint Louis		10) NC State
2) Connecticut		2) Iowa St.
15) Furman*		15) Tennessee St.*

HOUSTON (SOUTH)		SAN JOSE (WEST)
Tampa – March 20/22		San Diego – March 20/22
1) Florida		1) Arizona*
16) Long Island* / Howard*		16) UMBC*
8) Utah St.*		8) Saint Mary’s
9) Ohio St.		9) Iowa

Philadelphia – March 20/22		San Diego – March 20/22
5) Arkansas*		5) Texas Tech
12) Akron*		12) High Point*
4) Virginia		4) Alabama
13) Hofstra*		13) Hawaii*

Greenville – March 19/21		Portland – March 19/21
6) Tennessee		6) BYU
11) VCU*		11) Missouri / SMU
3) Purdue*		3) Gonzaga*
14) Troy*		14) Kennesaw St.*

Oklahoma City – March 19/21		Buffalo – March 19/21
7) UCLA		7) Clemson
10) Santa Clara		10) Texas A&M
2) Houston		2) Michigan St.
15) Idaho*		15) Siena*

First Four Out:

Auburn

Oklahoma

San Diego State

Indiana

Conference Breakdown:

SEC (10): Alabama, Arkansas*, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten (9): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue*, UCLA, Wisconsin

ACC (8): Clemson, Duke*, Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State, North Carolina, SMU, Virginia

Big 12 (8): Arizona*, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF

Big East (3): Connecticut, St. John’s*, Villanova

West Coast (3): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara

Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, VCU*

MAC (2): Akron*, Miami (OH)

Mountain West: Utah State*

American: South Florida*

America East: UMBC*

Atlantic Sun: Queens*

Big Sky: Idaho*

Big South: High Point*

Big West: Hawaii*

Coastal: Hofstra*

Conference USA: Kennesaw State*

Horizon: Wright State*

Ivy: Penn*

MAAC: Siena*

MEAC: Howard*

Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*

Northeast: Long Island*

Ohio Valley: Tennessee State*

Patriot: Lehigh*

Southern: Furman*

Southland: McNeese*

SWAC: Prairie View A&M*

Summit: North Dakota State*

Sun Belt: Troy*

WAC: Cal Baptist*

* Earned Automatic Bid

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

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