Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of March 10th, 2026

• Andy Bottoms

• 57m ago

 

Champ Week is underway and eight teams have officially secured automatic bids. As we get further into the week, though, the potential for bid thieves increases, which could spell the end for the last few teams in the field. Here are a few conference tournaments that bubble teams will want to keep a close eye on.

• American – This one probably isn’t a huge concern, because even though South Florida won the league by two games, they still rank 60th in Wins Above Bubble (WAB). The Bulls own a pair of Q1 victories, but three Q3 losses will be tough for them to overcome, given the result-based metrics. USF has a bye into the American semis, which aren’t until Saturday.

• Atlantic 10 – Saint Louis will be dancing no matter what, and as of now, VCU appears to be just on the right side of the cut line. However, Robbie Avila’s foot injury may have contributed to SLU’s recent struggles, which could open the door for a team like Dayton to steal a bid.

• MAC – After finishing the regular season 31-0, Miami can survive a loss, but the Redhawks have been playing with fire with three straight two-point victories to close the season. Should they slip up and take their first loss, another bid will be stolen.

• Mountain West – Utah State has been at or near the top of the league all season, but this tournament is always good for some chaos. The Aggies will be dancing but went 2-3 over the final five games of the season, while teams like New Mexico and San Diego State will be playing for their tournament lives in Vegas.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-365 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-365 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-365

The Bracket

The projections below are based on all games played through March 9th, 2026. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first five teams out.

Last Four In:

Texas – Thanks to Santa Clara’s win over Saint Mary’s in the WCC Tournament, the Longhorns slipped into this spot for now. They head into the SEC tournament at 17-13 (their win in Maui over Chaminade doesn’t count) after an overtime home loss to Oklahoma. Texas is 1-9 in Q1A opportunities but 6-9 in Q1 overall. However, they are just 10-13 in non-Q4 games with a Q3 home loss to Mississippi State and while a poor non-Q4 record didn’t keep them out last year, it’s still worth noting. The predictive metrics are strong, and WAB is 44th, so barring a loss to Ole Miss on Wednesday, it feels like they will be fine.

VCU – At the time, it seemed like VCU’s loss at Saint Louis on February 20th effectively squashed the Rams’ at-large case, but the inability of fellow bubble teams to win games has given them new life. VCU closed the season by winning 13 of 14 games, including a critical road win at Dayton last Friday. Most of the team sheet metrics are in the low to mid-40s, but VCU is just 1-5 in Q1 contests, while a Q2 win on a neutral court against fellow bubbler Virginia Tech is proving to be important. A 9-5 road/neutral mark is solid and VCU has no losses outside of the top two quadrants. The Rams open A-10 tournament play on Friday.

SMU – The Mustangs seemed like a near-lock just a couple weeks ago, but they dropped their final four games of the regular season to land squarely on the bubble. SMU ranks between 39th and 48th on all of the team sheet metrics and they have four Q1 victories, including home wins against Louisville and UNC. That said, the Mustangs are 1-8 in their nine toughest road games and 3-8 on the road overall. They take on Syracuse on Tuesday and if they can win there, SMU would get another shot at Louisville with a chance to solidify its case.

Stanford – There are a lot of factors to consider when looking at the Cardinal. They got off to a 13-4 start before losing star forward Chisom Okpara to a season-ending injury. Before he went out, Stanford had picked up a home win against Louisville, a neutral court victory against Saint Louis and a road triumph at Virginia Tech. After beating North Carolina in their first game without him, the Cardinal lost five straight and seven of nine, but they righted the ship late to win the last four, beating SMU at home and then sweeping road games at Notre Dame and NC State to get back into the picture. The committee has surprised us in the past with how they have dealt with injuries, but the overall result-based metrics are good enough to warrant selection even if they predictive metrics are lagging behind. Stanford also suffered three Q3 home losses and was swept by Cal, but they have five Q1 wins, six victories over the field/first four out and an 8-5 mark away from home, which is more than other bubble teams can claim. If the Cardinal can beat Pitt on Tuesday, they would face the same NC State team they just beat in the second round.

First Five Out:

Indiana – Quite honestly, I was shocked at how close IU is to being in the field despite Saturday’s loss at Ohio State and there are arguments to be made that they should have the last spot over Stanford. The Hoosiers now boast three Q1 wins after Wisconsin moved up in the NET, but even so, IU is an ugly 3-11 against Q1, 6-13 in the top two quadrants, and just 11-13 in non-Q4 games. They don’t have any losses outside of Q1 and Q2, but the Hoosiers are only 4-9 in road/neutral games and are 1-9 in their 10 toughest contests away from home. Despite having just three wins over the field, Indiana ranks just inside the top 50 in two of the three result-based metrics, while the predictive metrics are much better. IU opens Big Ten tournament play on Wednesday against the winner of Northwestern and Penn State.

Auburn – The Tigers split their games last week and sit at 16-15 entering the SEC tournament. Only two teams have earned at-large bids when finishing just two games over .500, so there’s really no way you can project Auburn in the field right now unless you think the committee is going to set a new precedent. Auburn has some great wins, but they have need to beat Mississippi State and then Tennessee if they want to finish at least two games over .500.

Virginia Tech – After dropping the regular season finale at Virginia, the Hokies remain on the outside looking in. As it stands, they rank 50th or worse in five of the seven team sheet metrics with a 2-10 mark in Q1 contests. VA Tech does have six Q2 victories to bolster the resume but only two wins over teams safely in the field. The Hokies take on Wake Forest on Tuesday and a win would give them a chance to pick up a second win against Clemson.

New Mexico – The Lobos hurt their case by losing both games last week (home against Colorado State and at Utah State). They now sit at 2-6 in Q1 but are 8-7 in the top two quadrants, including wins at VCU and home against Santa Clara and SDSU, all of which help for bubble purposes. However, New Mexico has no wins against teams safely in the field to go with a pair of Q3 losses and a WAB outside the top 50. The Lobos will likely face Boise State in the MWC quarters and they probably need to get to the final to have a legitimate shot.

California – After suffering a brutal home loss to Pitt, the Bears bounced back to win at Georgia Tech before dropping the regular season finale at Wake Forest in a game they led at the half. Four Q1 victories are great, headlined by a home win over UNC and a road win at Miami (FL). Oddly though, Cal is just 2-3 in Q2 contests with two of those losses coming to teams nowhere near the at-large mix. From a metrics standpoint, the result-based numbers all hover around 50th while the quality metrics are quite a bit lower. Cal faces a surging Florida State squad on Wednesday, where a win would give them a crack at top-seeded Duke.

Conference Breakdown:

SEC (10): Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

ACC (9): Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia

Big Ten (9): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

Big 12 (8): Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF

Big East (3): Connecticut, St. John’s, Villanova

West Coast (3): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara

Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, VCU

Mountain West: Utah State

American: South Florida

America East: UMBC

Atlantic Sun: Queens*

Big Sky: Portland State

Big South: High Point*

Big West: UC Irvine

Coastal: Hofstra

Conference USA: Liberty

Horizon: Wright State

Ivy: Yale

MAAC: Merrimack

MAC: Miami (OH)

MEAC: Howard

Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*

Northeast: Long Island*

Ohio Valley: Tennessee State*

Patriot: Lehigh

Southern: Furman*

Southland: Stephen F. Austin

SWAC: Bethune-Cookman

Summit: North Dakota State*

Sun Belt: Troy*

WAC: Utah Valley

* Earned Automatic Bid

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

See More: Bracketology, 2025-2026 Bracketology