Bracketology watch: IU basketball’s loss to Northwestern damaging to NCAA tournament chances

• Alex Bozich

• 1h ago

 

With Selection Sunday 17 days away, we’ll periodically examine where IU basketball stands in bracketology projections. The full 2026 NCAA tournament field will be revealed on Sunday, March 15, 2026.

Indiana basketball is 17-11 overall and 8-9 in the Big Ten with three regular-season games remaining.

Here’s a look at current bracketology projections and where the Hoosiers stand, along with their current resume:

Quad 1: 2-10
Quad 2: 2-1
Quad 3: 6-0
Quad 4: 7-0

KPI: 51 (unchanged from last update)
Strength of Record: 46 (down four spots from last update)
WAB (Wins Above Bubble): 49 (down eight spots from last update)
BPI: 37 (down six spots from last update)
KenPom: 42 (down one spot from last update)
NET ranking: 38 (down two spots from last update)
Bart Torvik: 31 (down one spot from last update)

Here are IU’s three remaining regular-season games with KenPom win probabilities as of Thursday morning for each game:

Sunday, March 1 vs. Michigan State: 37 percent chance of an IU win
Wednesday, March 4 vs. Minnesota: 73 percent chance of an IU win
Saturday, March 7 at Ohio State: 36 percent chance of an IU win

The most recent bracketology update from Andy Bottoms is available here. Andy will have an updated bracket on Tuesday, March 3.

ESPN.com, Joe Lunardi

Lunardi’s latest update came via social media on Wednesday morning and he has the Hoosiers among the last four teams in the field along with Santa Clara, TCU and New Mexico.

The first four out were Ohio State, Cal, USC and San Diego State.

CBSSports.com

The most recent CBS Sports projection, published Thursday, February 26, has Indiana out of the field.

The last four teams in are Texas A&M, Cal, TCU and Santa Clara and the first four out are New Mexico, VCU, Seton Hall and Ohio State.

Delphi Bracketology

Delphi’s most recent update, published on Wednesday, February 25, has the Hoosiers as a No. 11 seed.

The last four in are Santa Clara, Auburn, Indiana and Ohio State and the first four teams out are Cal, New Mexico, VCU and Virginia Tech.

1-3-1 Sports

A long-time fixture in the Bracket Matrix with strong results, we’re including 1-3-1 Sports in all of our remaining updates.

Their latest projection, published on Thursday, February 26, has the Hoosiers as a No. 11 seed.

The last four in are Santa Clara, Indiana, Auburn and New Mexico and the first four teams out are Virginia Tech, San Diego State, USC and Cal.

On3.com

The latest On3.com projection, written by James Fletcher on Sunday, February 22, has the Hoosiers as the last team receiving a bye.

The last four in are Ohio State, Santa Clara, New Mexico and Missouri and the first four teams out are TCU, USC, Virginia Tech and VCU.

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