Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of February 24th, 2026

• Andy Bottoms

• 60m ago

 

While I enjoyed the release of the Top 16 teams in this weekend’s Selection Committee reveal, there weren’t a lot of major surprises. I did appreciate the candor and transparency from this year’s committee chair, Keith Gill, so hopefully that is a sign of things to come.

Slotting Iowa State as the final one seed was an interesting – albeit justifiable – choice, but any qualms about that proved moot once the Cyclones lost at BYU late on Saturday night. UConn’s win at Villanova, coupled with Houston’s loss to Arizona, ultimately landed the Huskies back on the one line.

I also liked how the committee handled the JT Toppin injury situation with Texas Tech. It basically cost them a seed line, but they didn’t overreact, given that we hadn’t yet seen the Red Raiders play a full game post-injury until Saturday. While I could see them dropping more if they play poorly without him down the stretch, it was too early to do that now.

Lastly, seeing where Gonzaga ranked helped me understand just how much their surprising loss at Portland hurt them. With relatively few games in the WCC that move the needle, the Zags are often a tough team to seed given their typically gaudy win totals and strong predictive metrics, but a lower total number of meaningful games.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-365 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-365 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-365

The Bracket

The projections below are based on all games played through February 23, 2026. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first five teams out.

Last Four In:

Indiana – After a pair of blowout road losses, the Hoosiers have slipped closer to the cutline and are now ranked 43rd in WAB. They have no losses outside of Q1 but are just 4-10 in the top two quadrants and 1-7 in their eight toughest road/neutral games. The predictive metrics are still solid, although those matter a bit less for selection. IU can ill afford to lose Tuesday’s home game against Northwestern, while Sunday’s matchup against Michigan State provides another opportunity to bolster the Q1 win total.

Santa Clara – The Broncos took care of business in their only game last week with a 21-point win at San Francisco. That sets the stage for a huge tilt at Saint Mary’s this week, which may go a long way toward deciding the fate of both teams. Their result-based metrics all sit around 40th and while they are just 1-4 in Q1, they do have seven victories in Q2. However, a home win over Saint Mary’s is Santa Clara’s lone victory over a team in the at-large mix and their Q4 loss to Loyola Chicago is tough to explain. The Broncos close out the regular season with the aforementioned trip to Saint Mary’s and a home game with Oregon State.

TCU – After opening the season with a home loss to New Orleans, the Horned Frogs have turned things around to get back in the mix for an at-large. They own four Q1 victories, including a home win against Iowa State and neutral court victories against Florida and Wisconsin. That’s a trio of wins that few bubble teams will be able to compete with. Still, TCU has at least one loss in all four quadrants, but the remaining schedule is relatively favorable and provides opportunities to further improve upon their metrics.

New Mexico – The Lobos took care of business in a pair of winnable games last week, which was enough to earn their way into this week’s field. New Mexico sits at 2-4 in Q1, with one of those victories coming at fellow bubbler VCU. New Mexico also boasts a win against Santa Clara, but a Q3 loss at New Mexico State doesn’t help matters. This is a huge week for the Lobos, as they travel to Nevada before hosting San Diego State on Saturday.

First Five Out:

USC – Saturday’s home loss to Oregon gives the Trojans two Q3 losses for the season and pushes them just outside of this week’s field. Seven Q2 victories have helped USC to a 9-7 mark in the top two quadrants, but it’s worth noting that Rodney Rice was playing in three of those Q2 wins before being lost for the season. Injuries have played a huge role for the Trojans this season, which may make it difficult for the committee to assess just how good this team is, at least as it’s currently constructed. This week features the first of two remaining games against UCLA and a home game against Nebraska and a split feels like a necessity.

Ohio State – Last week was a mixed bag for the Buckeyes, with a home win against Wisconsin and a road loss to Michigan State. The latter dropped OSU to 0-9 in Q1 games, while the former helped bolster a solid 7-1 mark in Q2. OSU’s predictive metrics are strong, but all of their wins against teams in the at-large mix have come at home. As a result, the current result-based metrics aren’t as compelling and this week’s schedule is tough with a trip to Iowa followed by a home date with Purdue.

VCU – The Rams’ 10-game win streak was snapped at Saint Louis on Friday night, which may have been the final blow to VCU’s at-large hopes. Most of the team sheet metrics are in the mid to upper-40s, but VCU is now just 1-5 in Q1 contests with the lone win coming on a neutral court against fellow bubbler Virginia Tech. Four Q2 victories and an 8-5 road/neutral mark certainly help, but the Rams need to win out in the regular season before making a deep run in the A-10 Tournament.

Virginia Tech – After dropping a tight one-point game at Miami earlier in the week, the Hokies bounced back to beat Wake Forest on Saturday. As it stands, they rank outside the top 50 in all but one of the team sheet metrics with a 2-8 mark in Q1 contests. VA Tech does have six Q2 victories and they still face road games at North Carolina and Virginia. The Hokies are going to need to win at least one of those and not slip up against Boston College.

California – The Bears bested rival Stanford in their lone game last week, but they are still on the outside looking in. Four Q1 victories are great, headlined by a home win over UNC and a road win at Miami. Oddly though, Cal is just 1-3 in Q2 contests with two of those losses coming to teams not in the at-large mix. From a metrics standpoint, the result-based numbers all hover around 50th while the quality metrics are quite a bit lower. Wednesday’s home game with SMU is the toughest remaining contest on the slate and a win there could prove critical.

Conference Breakdown:

SEC (11): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten (9): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

ACC (8): Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State, North Carolina, SMU, Virginia

Big 12 (8): Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF

Big East (3): Connecticut, St. John’s, Villanova

West Coast (3): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, Utah State

American: South Florida

Atlantic 10: Saint Louis

America East: UMBC

Atlantic Sun: Austin Peay

Big Sky: Portland State

Big South: High Point

Big West: Hawaii

Coastal: UNC-Wilmington

Conference USA: Liberty

Horizon: Wright State

Ivy: Yale

MAAC: Merrimack

MAC: Miami (OH)

MEAC: Howard

Missouri Valley: Belmont

Northeast: LIU

Ohio Valley: Tennessee State

Patriot: Navy

Southern: ETSU

Southland: Stephen F. Austin

SWAC: Bethune-Cookman

Summit: North Dakota State

Sun Belt: Appalachian State

WAC: Utah Valley

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

See More: Bracketology, 2025-2026 Bracketology