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Bracketology watch: IU basketball remains on the NCAA tournament bubble

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Photos from IU basketball's 92-74 win against Oregon.

With Selection Sunday 20 days away, we’ll periodically examine where IU basketball stands in bracketology projections. The full 2026 NCAA tournament field will be revealed on Sunday, March 15, 2026.

Indiana basketball is 17-10 overall and 8-8 in the Big Ten with four regular-season games remaining.

Here’s a look at current bracketology projections and where the Hoosiers stand, along with their current resume:

Quad 1: 2-10
Quad 2: 2-0
Quad 3: 6-0
Quad 4: 7-0

KPI: 51 (down two spots from last update)
Strength of Record: 42 (unchanged from last update)
WAB (Wins Above Bubble): 41 (down two spots from last update)
BPI: 31 (down three spots from last update)
KenPom: 41 (down four spots from last update)
NET ranking: 36 (down four spots from last update)
Bart Torvik: 30 (down four spots from last update)

Here are IU’s four remaining regular-season games with KenPom win probabilities as of Wednesday afternoon for each game:

Tuesday, February 24 vs. Northwestern: 76 percent chance of an IU win
Sunday, March 1 vs. Michigan State: 39 percent chance of an IU win
Wednesday, March 4 vs. Minnesota: 76 percent chance of an IU win
Saturday, March 7 at Ohio State: 36 percent chance of an IU win

The most recent bracketology update from Andy Bottoms is available here. Andy will have an updated bracket on Tuesday, February 24.

NCAA tournament mock selection committee

A mock committee composed of media members met on Thursday, February 19, in Indianapolis to select the field of 68.

The Hoosiers were the final No. 9 seed playing Texas A&M in Greenville, South Carolina.

ESPN.com, Joe Lunardi

Lunardi’s latest update came via social media on Monday morning and he has the Hoosiers among the last four byes in the field along with UCF, UCLA and Auburn.

The last four in, according to Lunardi, are Missouri, Santa Clara, TCU and New Mexico and the first four out are Ohio State, USC, San Diego State and Cal.

Lunardi has nine Big Ten teams projected to make the 2026 NCAA tournament field.

CBSSports.com

The most recent CBS Sports projection, published Monday, February 23, has Indiana out of the field.

The Hoosiers are fourth on the first four out behind VCU, Ohio State and USC.

The last four teams in are Santa Clara, New Mexico, TCU and Cal.

Delphi Bracketology

Delphi’s most recent update, published on Friday, February 20, has the Hoosiers as a No. 9 seed.

The last four in are Santa Clara, Missouri, New Mexico and USC and the first four teams out are Ohio State, TCU, San Diego State and VCU.

On3.com

The latest On3.com projection, written by James Fletcher on Sunday, February 22, has the Hoosiers as the last team receiving a bye.

The last four in are Ohio State, Santa Clara, New Mexico and Missouri and the first four teams out are TCU, USC, Virginia Tech and VCU.

1-3-1 Sports

A long-time fixture in the Bracket Matrix with strong results, we’re including 1-3-1 Sports in all of our remaining updates.

Their latest projection, published on Monday, February 23, has the Hoosiers as the top No. 10 seed.

The last four in are Missouri, Santa Clara, New Mexico and USC and the first four teams out are TCU, Ohio State, Virginia Tech and San Diego State.

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