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Bracketology watch: IU basketball’s NCAA tournament chances with 23 days until Selection Sunday

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Photos from IU basketball's 92-74 win against Oregon.

With Selection Sunday 23 days away, we’ll periodically examine where IU basketball stands in bracketology projections. The full 2026 NCAA tournament field will be revealed on Sunday, March 15, 2026.

Indiana basketball is 17-9 overall and 8-7 in the Big Ten with five regular-season games remaining.

Here’s a look at current bracketology projections and where the Hoosiers stand, along with their current resume:

Quad 1: 2-8
Quad 2: 2-1
Quad 3: 6-0
Quad 4: 7-0

KPI: 49 (down one spot from last update)
Strength of Record: 42 (down one spot from last update)
WAB (Wins Above Bubble): 41 (unchanged from last update)
BPI: 28 (unchanged from last update)
KenPom: 37 (up one spot from last update)
NET ranking: 32 (up two spots from last update)
Bart Torvik: 26 (unchanged from last update)

Here are IU’s five remaining regular-season games with KenPom win probabilities as of Wednesday afternoon for each game:

Friday, February 20 at Purdue: 17 percent chance of an IU win
Tuesday, February 24 vs. Northwestern: 78 percent chance of an IU win
Sunday, March 1 vs. Michigan State: 40 percent chance of an IU win
Wednesday, March 4 vs. Minnesota: 78 percent chance of an IU win
Saturday, March 7 at Ohio State: 38 percent chance of an IU win

The most recent bracketology update from Andy Bottoms is available here.

NCAA tournament mock selection committee

A mock committee composed of media members met on Thursday in Indianapolis to select the field of 68.

The Hoosiers were the final No. 9 seed playing Texas A&M in Greenville, South Carolina.

ESPN.com, Joe Lunardi

Lunardi’s latest projection, published Friday, February 20, has Indiana as a No. 9 seed. In the projection, the Hoosiers are playing No. 8 seed Clemson in Oklahoma City.

Lunardi has 11 Big Ten teams projected to make the 2026 NCAA tournament field.

CBSSports.com

The most recent CBS Sports projection, published Thursday, February 19, has the Hoosiers as a No. 9 seed playing North Carolina State.

The last four teams in are Missouri, Santa Clara, VCU and New Mexico and the first four out are TCU, Auburn, Ohio State and Cal.

Delphi Bracketology

Delphi’s most recent update shared on social media on Wednesday has the Hoosiers as a No. 10 seed.

On3.com

The latest On3.com projection, written by James Fletcher on Thursday, February 19, has the Hoosiers as a No. 9 seed playing Saint Louis in Greenville, South Carolina.

The last four in are UCF, UCLA, New Mexico and Missouri and the first four teams out are USC, VCU, San Diego State and TCU.

1-3-1 Sports

A long-time fixture in the Bracket Matrix with strong results, we’re including 1-3-1 Sports in this update for the first time.

Their latest projection, published on Thursday, February 19, has the Hoosiers as the final No. 9 seed.

The last four in are Santa Clara, Ohio State, USC and New Mexico and the first four teams out are UCLA, TCU, San Diego State and VCU.

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