Bracketology watch: An updated look at IU basketball’s NCAA tournament chances

Photos from IU basketball's win against Wisconsin.

With Selection Sunday 25 days away, we’ll periodically examine where IU basketball stands in bracketology projections. The full 2026 NCAA tournament field will be revealed on Sunday, March 15, 2026.

Indiana basketball is 17-9 overall and 8-7 in the Big Ten with five regular-season games remaining.

Here’s a look at current bracketology projections and where the Hoosiers stand, along with their current resume:

Quad 1: 2-8
Quad 2: 2-1
Quad 3: 6-0
Quad 4: 7-0

KPI: 48 (down five spots from last update)
Strength of Record: 41 (down one spot from last update)
WAB (Wins Above Bubble): 41 (down three spots from last update)
BPI: 28 (down two spots from last update)
KenPom: 38 (down three spots from last update)
NET ranking: 34 (down one spot from last update)
Bart Torvik: 26 (down two spots from last update)

Here are IU’s five remaining regular-season games with KenPom win probabilities as of Wednesday afternoon for each game:

Friday, February 20 at Purdue: 17 percent chance of an IU win
Tuesday, February 24 vs. Northwestern: 77 percent chance of an IU win
Sunday, March 1 vs. Michigan State: 40 percent chance of an IU win
Wednesday, March 4 vs. Minnesota: 78 percent chance of an IU win
Saturday, March 7 at Ohio State: 38 percent chance of an IU win

The most recent bracketology update from Andy Bottoms is available here.

ESPN.com, Joe Lunardi

Lunardi’s latest projection, published Tuesday, February 17, has Indiana as a No. 9 seed. In the projection, the Hoosiers are playing No. 8 seed Auburn in Philadelphia.

Lunardi has 10 Big Ten teams projected to make the 2026 NCAA tournament field.

CBSSports.com

The most recent CBS Sports projection, published Wednesday, February 18, has the Hoosiers as a No. 9 seed.

The last four teams in are Saint Mary’s, Missouri, Santa Clara and TCU and the first four out are VCU, New Mexico, Ohio State and San Diego State.

Delphi Bracketology

Delphi’s most recent update, published late on Monday, February 16, has the Hoosiers as a No. 10 seed.

The last four teams in are San Diego State, TCU, Georgia and Saint Mary’s and the first four teams out are Missouri, Ohio State, New Mexico and VCU.

HoopsHD – Jon Teitel

The latest HoopsHD bracket, published on Sunday, February 15, placed the Hoosiers as a No. 9 seed playing No. 8 seed Utah State.

The first four teams out are New Mexico, Ohio State, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech.

On3.com

The latest On3.com projection, written by James Fletcher on Sunday, February 15, has the Hoosiers as a No. 8 seed playing Miami (FL).

The last four in are San Diego State, USC, Ohio State and UCF and the first four teams out are New Mexico, Missouri, VCU and TCU.

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