Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of February 9th, 2026

This week’s projections are being posted a day early because Indiana plays on Monday night, but a largely boring Super Bowl gave me the opportunity to put together the bracket.

Despite losses by a pair of last week’s one seeds, things are unchanged atop the bracket outside of Michigan leap-frogging Duke for the second overall spot on the seed list. One area of the bracket that is really tightly bunched starts toward the bottom of the four line and ends around the top of the seven line, where several teams are essentially interchangeable right now.

The bubble is still relatively weak, which is probably something I say every year around this time, but that doesn’t make it untrue. It’s worth noting that Santa Clara is the automatic bid for the West Coast Conference in this week’s field due to the Broncos’ half-game lead over Gonzaga in the standings.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-365 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-365 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-365

The Bracket

The projections below are based on all games played through February 8, 2026. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first five teams out.

SAN JOSE (WEST)		WASHINGTON, DC (EAST)
San Diego – March 20/22		Greenville – March 19/21
1) Arizona		1) Duke
16) LIU		16) Navy
8) Villanova		8) Auburn
9) SMU		9) UCF

Portland – March 19/21		San Diego – March 20/22
5) St. John’s		5) Alabama
12) Yale		12) Liberty
4) Gonzaga		4) Texas Tech
13) Utah Valley		13) Stephen F. Austin

Tampa – March 20/22		Greenville – March 19/21
6) Arkansas		6) Kentucky
11) Santa Clara		11) Miami (OH)
3) Florida		3) Kansas
14) ETSU		14) Troy

Oklahoma City – March 19/21		St. Louis – March 20/22
7) BYU		7) NC State
10) UCLA		10) Indiana
2) Nebraska		2) Illinois
15) UT-Martin		15) Wright St.

HOUSTON (SOUTH)		CHICAGO (MIDWEST)
Philadelphia – March 20/22		Buffalo – March 19/21
1) Connecticut		1) Michigan
16) Bethune-Cookman / Merrimack		16) Morgan St. / NJIT
8) Texas A&M		8) Utah St.
9) USC		9) Georgia

Portland – March 19/21		Tampa – March 20/22
5) Tennessee		5) Vanderbilt
12) South Florida		12) Belmont
4) Virginia		4) North Carolina
13) Hawaii		13) High Point

Buffalo – March 19/21		Philadelphia – March 20/22
6) Saint Louis		6) Clemson
11) Miami (FL) / Missouri		11) Oklahoma St. / Texas
3) Purdue		3) Michigan St.
14) North Dakota St.		14) Portland St.

Oklahoma City – March 19/21		St. Louis – March 20/22
7) Iowa		7) Louisville
10) Saint Mary’s		10) Wisconsin
2) Houston		2) Iowa St.
15) College of Charleston		15) Austin Peay

Last Four In:

Miami (FL) – With a Top 40 NET and decent metrics across the board, the Hurricanes feel like a team that should be more safely in the field, but a closer look reveals a team that has yet to beat anyone in the at-large mix. Throw in a Q3 loss to Florida State and there is still work to do for Miami. With five of their eight remaining games coming against teams in this week’s field, things will sort themselves out one way or another.

Texas – The Longhorns took care of business in home games with South Carolina and Ole Miss this week, but they still have a losing mark in non-Q4 games at just 7-9. For now, four Quad 1 victories are enough to carry the day, given the general lack of Q1 wins from other bubble teams, but Saturday’s trip to Missouri looms large for both teams.

Missouri – Speaking of the Tigers, this is simply a weird profile. On the one hand, Mizzou has knocked off Florida and Auburn at home and won at Kentucky. On the other hand, they are in the low 60s of the NET, with a whopping nine of their 16 total wins falling in Q4. Mizzou’s next five games all come against teams in this week’s field, so we should learn a lot about the Tigers in the coming weeks.

Oklahoma State – The Pokes got demolished at Arizona this weekend and tumbled in the predictive metrics as a result, but with such a weak bubble, their wins over BYU, Texas A&M, and UCF were enough to claim the last spot. Those victories have contributed to strong resume metrics, which bodes well for selection, but Oklahoma State’s predictive metrics are relatively poor. The Cowboys also have just one true road win, but this week’s trip to Arizona State provides a chance to double that total.

First Five Out:

San Diego State – The Aztecs are tied with Utah State atop the Mountain West and went 2-0 last week. However, SDSU is just 1-5 in Q1 and 4-5 in the top two quadrants with just one win over a team in the at-large mix (home vs. New Mexico) to go with a Q3 home loss to Troy. SDSU’s lone game this week comes on Saturday when they host Nevada.

California – After getting smoked at home by Clemson, the Bears have dropped to the wrong side of the cutline. They have four Q1 victories, which has led to solid results-based metrics, but a weak non-conference strength of schedule could be an issue. The remaining schedule is favorable, with the lone game remaining against a tournament-level team coming at home against SMU. Cal can ill afford to drop either game this week as the Bears travel to Syracuse and Boston College.

New Mexico – After dropping a pair of home games this week, the Lobos are on the outside looking in. They are just 1-4 in Q1, with that lone victory coming at fellow bubbler VCU. New Mexico also boasts a win against Santa Clara, but a Q3 loss at New Mexico State doesn’t help matters at all. Wednesday’s game at Grand Canyon presents a chance to get back on track and pick up a second Q1 victory.

VCU – Friday’s victory against Dayton extended the Rams’ winning streak to seven games. All of the team sheet metrics are between 39 and 57, but VCU is 0-5 in Q1 contests. Five Q2 victories certainly help though, including a neutral court win against Virginia Tech. The Rams just need to keep winning ahead of a trip to Saint Louis on February 20th.

Virginia Tech – The Hokies lost their only game last week, falling at NC State by nine points. The predictive metrics aren’t great for the Hokies, but those don’t tend to matter as much for selection. They have a pair of Q1 victories and seven total wins in the top two quadrants, although just one of those is over a team in this week’s field (home vs. Virginia). A trip to Clemson is up next and a win there would be huge.

Conference Breakdown:

SEC (11): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten (10): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin

ACC (8): Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State, North Carolina, SMU, Virginia

Big 12 (8): Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Oklahoma St., Texas Tech, UCF

Big East (3): Connecticut, St. John’s, Villanova

West Coast (3): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara

Mountain West: Utah State

American: South Florida

Atlantic 10: Saint Louis

America East: NJIT

Atlantic Sun: Austin Peay

Big Sky: Portland State

Big South: High Point

Big West: Hawaii

Coastal: College of Charleston

Conference USA: Liberty

Horizon: Wright State

Ivy: Yale

MAAC: Merrimack

MAC: Miami (OH)

MEAC: Morgan State

Missouri Valley: Belmont

Northeast: LIU

Ohio Valley: UT-Martin

Patriot: Navy

Southern: ETSU

Southland: Stephen F. Austin

SWAC: Bethune-Cookman

Summit: North Dakota State

Sun Belt: Troy

WAC: Utah Valley

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

See More: Bracketology, 2025-2026 Bracketology