Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of February 3rd, 2026

With the Indiana football program capturing the hearts and minds of so many (myself included), I am admittedly a bit late with my first set of bracket projections, but rest assured, I have still been tracking teams and results as usual. As it stands, we are less than six weeks away from Selection Sunday.

Here are a couple of quick notes on this week’s projections:

• The one seeds haven’t changed much in recent weeks, with the top four teams starting to separate themselves a bit. Arizona is one of just two unbeaten teams left and the Wildcats rank in the top three across all metrics on the team sheets, with nine of their wins coming in Q1. Duke also boasts nine Q1 victories and ranks first in the NET, while Michigan owns the top spot in three team sheet metrics (KenPom, Torvik, and KPI) to go with a 20-1 record and eight Q1 wins. The final No. 1 seed goes to UConn, which also has just one loss, but the Huskies’ predictive metrics lag behind those of the other top seeds.

• The ACC, Big Ten and SEC each placed 10 teams in this week’s field, with the Big 12 checking in with seven. The Big East, Mountain West, and WCC are the only other leagues with multiple bids, although none have more than three teams.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-365 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-365 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-365

The Bracket

The projections below are based on all games played through February 2, 2026. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first six teams out.

SAN JOSE (WEST)		WASHINGTON, DC (EAST)
San Diego – March 20/22		Greenville – March 19/21
1) Arizona		1) Duke
16) LIU		16) NC Central / Vermont
8) Villanova		8) Auburn
9) SMU		9) Wisconsin

Portland – March 19/21		Tampa – March 20/22
5) BYU		5) Tennessee
12) Yale		12) Liberty
4) Virginia		4) Florida
13) UNC-Wilmington		13) High Point

Portland – March 19/21		Greenville – March 19/21
6) Clemson		6) Louisville
11) Miami (OH)		11) UCLA
3) Gonzaga		3) Kansas
14) UC Irvine		14) Troy

Oklahoma City – March 19/21		St. Louis – March 20/22
7) Texas A&M		7) UCF
10) USC		10) Indiana
2) Nebraska		2) Illinois
15) Portland St.		15) ETSU

HOUSTON (SOUTH)		CHICAGO (MIDWEST)
Philadelphia – March 20/22		Buffalo – March 19/21
1) Connecticut		1) Michigan
16) Bethune-Cookman / Merrimack		16) Navy
8) Iowa		8) NC State
9) Georgia		9) Utah St.

San Diego – March 20/22		Tampa – March 20/22
5) Alabama		5) North Carolina
12) Tulsa		12) Belmont
4) Texas Tech		4) Vanderbilt
13) Utah Valley		13) Stephen F. Austin

Buffalo – March 19/21		Philadelphia – March 20/22
6) Arkansas		6) St. John’s
11) California / Virginia Tech		11) Miami (FL) / Texas
3) Purdue		3) Michigan St.
14) North Dakota St.		14) Wright St.

Oklahoma City – March 19/21		St. Louis – March 20/22
7) Saint Louis		7) Kentucky
10) Saint Mary’s		10) New Mexico
2) Houston		2) Iowa St.
15) UT-Martin		15) Austin Peay

Last Four In:

California – The Bears picked up a huge win at Miami over the weekend, giving them a third Q1 victory. As a result, Cal has solid, results-based metrics, but a weak non-conference strength of schedule could be an issue. The only games remaining against tournament-level teams are against Clemson and SMU, both in Berkeley.

Miami (FL) – With a Top 40 NET and decent metrics across the board, the Hurricanes feel like a team that should be more safely in the field, but a closer look reveals a team that has yet to beat anyone in the at-large mix. Throw in a Q3 loss to Florida State and there is work to do for Miami. Six of their nine remaining games come against teams in this week’s field.

Texas – Up until last year, a 5-9 mark in non-Q4 games would give me pause, but the Longhorns broke multiple precedents by making last year’s field. For now, a trio of Quad 1 victories (Vanderbilt at home, Alabama on the road and NC State on a neutral court) is enough to carry the day, but the margin for error is slim.

Virginia Tech – The predictive metrics aren’t great for the Hokies, but those don’t tend to matter as much for selection. They have a pair of Q1 victories and seven total wins in the top two quadrants. VA Tech has a tough closing schedule, starting with their next two games on the road at NC State and Clemson.

First Six Out:

Ohio State – The Buckeyes have solid predictive metrics, but they are just 1-6 in Q1 games, with the lone win coming at Northwestern. OSU has only one win over the projected field and the closing schedule is tough following this week’s trip to Maryland.

Missouri – This is simply a weird profile. On the one hand, Mizzou has knocked off Florida and Auburn at home and won at Kentucky. On the other, the Tigers are 0-3 in Q2 games with nine of their 15 total wins falling in Q4.

Seton Hall – The Pirates have been a pleasant surprise so far this season, but their lone win over an at-large contender came against NC State in Maui. Unfortunately, the Big East doesn’t allow too many opportunities to fix that, which makes Wednesday’s trip to Villanova a huge one.

Santa Clara – Strong predictive metrics are great for the Broncos, as is a 5-1 mark in Q2, but they are 0-3 in Q1 contests and have an ugly Q4 loss to Loyola Chicago. For now, Santa Clara just needs to keep winning ahead of a Valentine’s Day date with Gonzaga.

San Diego State – The Aztecs fell into a three-way tie atop the Mountain West following Saturday’s loss at Utah State. SDSU is just 4-5 in the top two quadrants with just one win over a team in the at-large mix.

George Mason – With solid result-based metrics and only two losses, the Patriots are firmly in the mix, but a home win over VCU is their lone victory in the top two quadrants. The predictive metrics aren’t particularly good, which will put pressure on GMU to perform in its toughest remaining games on the road at George Washington and VCU and home against Dayton and Saint Louis.

Conference Breakdown:

ACC (10): California, Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State, North Carolina, SMU, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Big Ten (10): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin

SEC (10): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big 12 (7): Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech, UCF

Big East (3): Connecticut, St. John’s, Villanova

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, Utah State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

American: Tulsa

Atlantic 10: Saint Louis

America East: Vermont

Atlantic Sun: Austin Peay

Big Sky: Portland State

Big South: High Point

Big West: UC Irvine

Coastal: UNC-Wilmington

Conference USA: Liberty

Horizon: Wright State

Ivy: Yale

MAAC: Merrimack

MAC: Miami (OH)

MEAC: NC Central

Missouri Valley: Belmont

Northeast: LIU

Ohio Valley: UT-Martin

Patriot: Navy

Southern: ETSU

Southland: Stephen F. Austin

SWAC: Bethune-Cookman

Summit: North Dakota State

Sun Belt: Troy

WAC: Utah Valley

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

See More: Bracketology, 2025-2026 Bracketology