Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of March 13th, 2025

  • Mar 13, 2025 9:49 am
 

Wednesday saw several bubble teams in action, with all of the major conference tournaments underway. Here’s a quick look at the winners and losers, as we head into a huge couple of days.

Winners:

• Arkansas held off South Carolina, and at this point, I’d be pretty shocked if the Hogs weren’t in the field. They have five Q1 wins and nine victories in the top two quadrants to go with decent metrics across the board.

• In other SEC action, Texas lives to fight another day after beating Vanderbilt. The Longhorns remain on the wrong side of the cut line (more on them later), but this win gives them a crack at Texas A&M on Thursday.

• Baylor removed any remaining doubt by beating Kansas State by 14 in the Big 12 tournament. The Bears are 11-12 in the top two quadrants (after defeating Kansas State badly enough that yesterday’s win fell to Q3) with strong predictive metrics.

• Wednesday night’s win against Georgia moves Oklahoma to 6-0 in neutral court games, giving them some breathing room. As mentioned earlier in the week, the committee says they do not look at conference records and a trio of strong non-conference wins bolsters OU’s profile. I have them clear of Dayton for now, but I could still see them landing there if they fall to Kentucky.

Losers:

• Vanderbilt was a 10 seed earlier this week, but the loss to Texas has pushed them closer to Last Four In territory. Five of Vandy’s six best wins have come at home and they have a very poor non-conference strength of schedule, which explains why eight of their 20 victories sit in Q4. I think they will be fine, but there are still a few warts on their profile.

•Following Saturday’s loss at Indiana, Ohio State simply had to beat Iowa to stay alive and could not do it. While the Buckeyes boast a few strong wins, a 17-15 mark pretty much eliminates them when looking at historical precedent.

Looking ahead, my next update will be on Saturday morning.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351

The projections below are based on all games played through March 12th, 2025. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first four out.

ATLANTA (SOUTH) NEWARK (EAST)
Lexington – March 20/22 Raleigh – March 21/23
1) Auburn 1) Duke
16) Jackson St. / St. Francis* 16) American* / SIUE*
8) Connecticut
 8) Mississippi St.
9) New Mexico 9) Creighton
Seattle – March 21/23 Providence – March 20/22
5) Michigan
 5) Ole Miss
12) Liberty 12) McNeese*
4) Clemson 4) Maryland
13) Lipscomb* 13) Yale
Wichita – March 20/22 Milwaukee – March 21/23
6) UCLA 6) Illinois
11) Vanderbilt 11) Oklahoma
3) Texas A&M 3) Iowa St.
14) Robert Morris 14) UNC-Wilmington*
Cleveland – March 21/23 Cleveland – March 21/23
7) Missouri 7) Marquette
10) Baylor 10) West Virginia
2) Michigan St. 2) Tennessee
15) Wofford*
 15) Bryant*
SAN FRANCISCO (WEST) INDIANAPOLIS (MIDWEST)
Raleigh – March 21/23 Wichita – March 20/22
1) Florida 1) Houston
16) Norfolk St. 16) Quinnipiac
8) Louisville 8) Memphis
9) Utah St. 9) Georgia
Denver – March 20/22 Seattle – March 21/23
5) Oregon 5) Arizona
12) VCU 12) UC Irvine / Xavier
4) Wisconsin 4) Purdue
13) High Point* 13) Akron
Denver – March 20/22 Milwaukee – March 21/23
6) BYU 6) Saint Mary’s
11) Indiana / San Diego St.
 11) UC San Diego
3) Texas Tech 3) Kentucky
14) Utah Valley 14) Troy*
Providence – March 20/22 Lexington – March 20/22
7) Gonzaga* 7) Kansas
10) Arkansas 10) Drake*
2) St. John’s 2) Alabama
15) Omaha* 15) Montana*

Last Four In:

San Diego State – I was very close to putting Vanderbilt in this spot following the loss to Texas, but for now, I’m going with the Aztecs. SDSU is 3-5 in Q1 with neutral-court wins against Houston and Creighton to go with a road win at Boise State, but they have a Q3 loss and only 12 non-Q4 victories. The result-based metrics are solid, so the Aztecs feel safe for selection, but predictive metrics hovering around 50th could impact seeding. A third win against Boise would give SDSU enough of a bump to move to the last four byes.

Indiana – The Hoosiers rebounded from a tough loss at Oregon by knocking off Ohio State on Saturday, which keeps them in the field for now. They sit at just 4-12 in Q1 contests, but they have no losses outside of the top quadrant. The Hoosiers have nine wins across Q1 and Q2 and while some blowout losses earlier in the season hurt the predictive metrics, their result-based metrics average out in the low 40s, which tend to hold more weight in the selection process. IU has just two victories over at-large teams in the field, which makes Thursday’s matchup with Oregon critical for their at-large hopes.

Xavier – The Musketeers feel like UNC light (more on them in a minute), as they are now just 1-8 in Q1 contests, with the lone win coming at Marquette. They have two losses outside of Q1 and are 14-10 in non-Q4 games, including home wins against UConn and Creighton. Xavier faces Marquette in their Big East tournament opener and a second win over the Golden Eagles would provide a considerable boost.

UC Irvine – Understanding how the committee might handle the Anteaters is tough. On the one hand, they have won 17 road/neutral games and boast a Q1A road victory to go with a 4-3 mark in the top two quadrants. Conversely, UC Irvine has predictive metrics that average in the upper 70s. The result-based metrics average in the upper 40s, which is actually better than the other teams I considered. Personally, this is the kind of team I’d like to see get a shot so long as they make it to the Big West final, but I am trying to predict what the committee will do. While I’m not convinced they would give UCI the nod, I can’t bring myself to put any of the other contenders in just yet.

First Four Out:

North Carolina – The good news is that the Tar Heels have just one loss outside of Q1. The bad news is they are 1-11 in Q1 games and have only one victory against my projected field to go with a Q3 home loss to Stanford. The predictive metrics are strong relative to other bubble teams and at this point it feels like UNC needs to get to the ACC final with victories over Wake Forest and Duke in order to earn a bid.

Boise State – Friday’s home loss to Colorado State puts the Broncos in a tough spot but also helps the Rams as they make a late push for an at-large. A loss in each of Q3 and Q4 along with result-based metrics that all sit outside the top 50 aren’t helping matters for Boise, but non-conference wins against Saint Mary’s and Clemson have aged extremely well. The Broncos have also knocked off Utah State and New Mexico at home, but they cannot afford a loss to San Diego State on Thursday. I also can’t help but keep the committee’s treatment of last season’s Mountain West in the back of my mind as I evaluate the league’s bubble teams.

Texas – The Longhorns stayed alive by knocking off Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament on Wednesday, which sets up a matchup with Texas A&M on Thursday. Six Q1 wins and solid predictive metrics make the Longhorns a viable candidate, but they played a weak non-conference schedule and are just 11-14 in non-Q4 games. The result-based metrics average out in the mid-50s, which means there is still work to do.

Colorado State – The Rams have ripped off seven straight victories and are now 15-3 in their last 18 contests with the only losses coming at San Diego State, New Mexico and Utah State. CSU boasts a sweep of fellow bubbler Boise State and home wins over SDSU and Utah State, but 11 of their 22 wins fall in Q4 with a pair of losses in Q3. All of the Rams’ notable wins came during league play and all but one of the team sheet metrics rank 50th or worse, which typically doesn’t bode well for selection. The Rams will face Nevada on Thursday, and if they win, they’d have a chance to knock off Utah State for a second time in the semis.

Conference Breakdown:

SEC (13): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten (9): Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

Big 12 (8): Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Big East (5): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, Xavier

ACC (3): Clemson, Duke, Louisville

Mountain West (3): New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State

Big West (2): UC Irvine, UC San Diego

West Coast (2): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s

American: Memphis

Atlantic 10: VCU

America East: Bryant

Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb*

Big Sky: Montana*

Big South: High Point*

Colonial: UNC-Wilmington*

Conference USA: Liberty

Horizon: Robert Morris*

Ivy: Yale

MAAC: Quinnipiac

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Missouri Valley: Drake*

Northeast: Saint Francis*

Ohio Valley: SIU-Edwardsville*

Patriot: American*

Southern: Wofford*

Southland: McNeese*

SWAC: Jackson State

Summit: Omaha*

Sun Belt: Troy*

WAC: Utah Valley

* – Automatic Bid

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Category: Bracketology

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