What to Expect: Indiana at Michigan State

On Tuesday night, Indiana is back on the road to take on Michigan State at the Breslin Center. The Spartans are 19-4 and 10-2 in the Big Ten.

The game will tip at 9 p.m. ET on Peacock:

Indiana’s five-game losing streak has featured close losses, failed late-game execution and a non-competitive loss last Tuesday at Wisconsin.

The Hoosiers are eight games into an 11-game stretch that was expected to define the season and is 1-7 in those games. Next in this daunting stretch is a road trip to East Lansing to take on Tom Izzo and Michigan State. Izzo can break Bob Knight’s record of all-time Big Ten wins with a victory against the Hoosiers.

After dropping a pair of games at USC and UCLA earlier this month, Michigan State got back on track with a comfortable 86-74 win against Oregon at the Breslin Center on Saturday.

MEET THE SPARTANS

Michigan State is a balanced offensive team with 10 players averaging between five and 13.4 points per game. Just two Spartans, Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson, are averaging double figures.

Akins, a 6-foot-4 senior, leads Michigan State in scoring and is shooting 52 percent on 2s. Akins has attempted a team-high 114 3-pointers but is connecting on only 29.8 percent of his shots from distance.

With sophomore Jeremy Fears sidelined for Saturday’s game against Oregon due to an illness, freshman Jase Richardson started for the first time all season against the Ducks. Richardson exploded for a game-high 29 points on 9-for-13 shooting from the field and an 8-for-9 mark from the free-throw line. The 6-foot-3 guard, the son of former Michigan State star Jason Richardson, averages 10.2 points on 53.9 percent shooting in 22.2 minutes per game.

Fears is the primary ball-handler and distributor for Michigan State. He has the second-highest assist rate nationally at 43.5 percent. Fears averages 6.2 assists in 23.8 minutes per game. He can knock down the occasional 3-pointer – 8-for-19 this season – and averages 7.7 points on 43.5 percent shooting overall.

Junior guard Tre Holloman has struggled with his shooting, but is the team’s fourth-leading scorer at 8.2 points in 22.7 minutes per game. Holloman is shooting 37.1 percent overall and 34.1 percent on 3s.

The Spartans start a pair of bigs – Szymon Zapala and Jaxon Kohler – and bring Xavier Booker off the bench. Booker missed the last game against Oregon due to an illness and has struggled in what many believed would be a breakout sophomore campaign. The Cathedral product averages 6.3 points and 2.9 rebounds in 15.7 minutes per game.

Zapala, a transfer from Longwood, is a 7-footer in his fifth season. The Poland native makes 71.4 percent of his 2s and averages a solid 5.4 points and 4.5 rebounds in 15.2 minutes per game.

Kohler, a 6-foot-9 junior, is one of the best rebounders in the country. He ranks in the top 20 nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. In Big Ten play, Kohler is the Big Ten’s best offensive rebounder and third-best defensive rebounder.

Michigan State also has 6-foot-11 junior Carson Cooper, another excellent rebounder, to bring off the bench. Cooper ranks eighth in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding percentage and fourth in defensive rebounding percentage.

A pair of wings, Coen Carr and Frankie Fidler, come off the bench to provide scoring. Carr is a high-flying athlete and an elite finisher. The 6-foot-5 sophomore is third on Michigan State in scoring at 8.3 points per game and is shooting 62 percent on 3s. Fidler, a transfer from Omaha, was expected to bring primeter shooting but has struggled from beyond the arc. The 6-foot-7 forward shot 36.8 percent on triples last season but is a dismal 9-for-52 (17.3 percent) this season as a senior.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

(All stats below are for conference games only.)

The Spartans are an elite defensive team, ranking first in the Big Ten in points per possession allowed and 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com.

In Big Ten play, opponents are shooting just 28.3 percent on 3s and 46.5 percent on 2s against Michigan State. The Spartans are the Big Ten’s third-best defensive rebounding team.

Offensively, Michigan State takes the lowest volume of 3s in the Big Ten, but ranks first in the league in offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate (FTA/FGA). MSU has also been turnover-prone at times, ranking 15th in the conference in turnover percentage.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection is Michigan State by 11 with a 17 percent chance of an IU victory. Bart Torvik likes the Spartans by 11 and gives the Hoosiers a 14 percent chance for an upset.

The Spartans are playing for a Big Ten title and need a win to keep pace atop the Big Ten standings. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are playing out the string as the Mike Woodson era ends.

Given the fragile state of Indiana right now amid a 1-7 record in its last eight games, it’s tough to envision a competitive game in the Breslin Center between these two programs.

Category: Commentary

Filed to: Michigan State Spartans