What to Expect: Michigan at Indiana

Indiana returns home for a Saturday afternoon matchup against Michigan at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. The Wolverines are 17-5 and 9-2 in the Big Ten.

Saturday’s game will tip at 1 p.m. ET on CBS:

Amid the developing story that is Mike Woodson’s future, there’s a game to play this weekend in Bloomington. Michigan, led by first-year coach Dusty May, an IU alum, arrives for a Saturday afternoon matinee against the Hoosiers.

This is a pivotal game for the Wolverines, who are 17-5 overall and 9-2 in the Big Ten. Michigan has been winning close games lately, with three straight wins by a total of 11 points.

For Indiana, it’s hard to know what to expect on a game-to-game basis and Saturday is no different. After hard-fought losses against Maryland and Purdue, the Hoosiers never put up a fight in Tuesday’s loss at Wisconsin.

MEET THE WOLVERINES

After last season’s disastrous 8-24 finish, Michigan is back in contention under May, who led Florida Atlantic to the Final Four in 2023.

Michigan has one of the most balanced rosters in the Big Ten, with five players averaging between 10.5 and 15.6 points per game.

The headliner is center Vladislav Goldin, a 7-foot-1, 250-pound senior from Voronezh, Russia. Goldin leads the Wolverines in scoring at 15.6 points per game and shoots 64.8 percent from the field. He’s got the second-highest free throw rate (FTA/FGA) in the league at 64.7 percent and is making 73 percent of his attempts from the stripe. Goldin is also tied for the team lead with 35 blocked shots.

Joining Goldin in the frontcourt is Yale transfer Danny Wolf, who could be a first-round NBA draft pick this summer. A 7-footer who can handle the ball, Wolf averages 12.3 points, 10 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 28.8 minutes per game. His mobility and ability to score from the perimeter and at the rim make him one of the league’s toughest covers. However, Wolf can be mistake-prone and his 77 turnovers are easily the highest on the roster.

The two backcourt names off the bench to know are Will Tschetter, a holdover from the Juwan Howard era, and Sam Walters, a transfer from Alabama.

Tschetter, a 6-foot-8, 230-pound senior, is shooting 73.3 percent on 2s and 40 percent on 3s, making him one of the most efficient reserves in the league. He averages seven points and 2.4 rebounds in 15.2 minutes per game.

Walters is a 6-foot-10 floor spacer. Of his 85 field goal attempts this season, 70 have been 3-pointers. Walters is shooting 37.1 percent from distance and is a career 38.5 percent 3-point shooter.

The Michigan backcourt is led by point guard Tre Donaldson and wings Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett.

The 6-foot-3 Donaldson played the previous two seasons at Auburn and has established himself as one of the best lead guards in the Big Ten. He’s second on the team in scoring at 12.7 points per game and averages 4.4 assists, a team-high. Donaldson is shooting 42.2 percent on 3s.

Gayle Jr. is a poor 3-point shooter but an excellent finisher. The Ohio State transfer is shooting 56.8 percent on 2s and 23.2 percent on 3s. He does a good job getting to the free-throw line and is excellent at converting. In Big Ten games, Gayle ranks ninth in free throw rate (53.2 percent). He shoots 82.9 percent from the stripe in conference play.

Burnett is another Howard-era holdover. He’s enjoying the best shooting year of his career and is benefiting from Wolf and Donaldson’s playmaking ability. This season, Burnett is 43-for-99 on 3s, good for 43.4 percent.

The backcourt rotation also features Rubin Jones and Justin Pippen. Jones is a transfer from North Texas who is a poor perimeter shooter (26.1 percent on 3s) but is an excellent defender. Pippen, a freshman, is the backup point guard and will take open 3s if available. Pippen is 8-for-23 from distance this season.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

(All stats are updated through Thursday’s games and include numbers from conference games only.)

The Achilles’ heel for Michigan is turnovers. The Wolverines are turning it over on nearly 20 percent of their possessions in Big Ten play, which ranks last in the league. Michigan is also susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds. Wolverine opponents in league play are grabbing 30.6 percent of their missed shots.

Offensively, Michigan is efficient from the perimeter and at the rim. When clicking on all cylinders, its offense is a joy to watch.

The Wolverines are shooting 35.1 percent on 3s in Big Ten play, which ranks sixth in the conference, and 56.3 percent on 2s, which is second best in the league. Michigan attempts 3-pointers at the third highest rate in the league and also ranks third in the conference in point distribution on 3s (33.8 percent).

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection is Michigan by four, with a 38 percent chance of an IU victory. Bart Torvik also projects a four-point Michigan win with a 36 percent chance of a Hoosier upset.

Indiana has lost six of its last seven games and is searching for any positive momentum it can find with just eight regular-season games to play. The Hoosiers have competed in several recent games, but their performance at Wisconsin was a step in the wrong direction. The Badgers punched IU early and the Hoosiers never got off the mat.

Unfortunately for Indiana, the current 11-game stretch of Quad 1 contests still has four games to go and Michigan presents a significant challenge with its up tempo offense that can score in transition, at the rim and from behind the 3-point line. After Michigan State’s 0-2 trip to the west coast, the Wolverines are now tied for the Big Ten lead with Purdue and the Spartans and need a win Saturday to keep pace in their quest for the Big Ten title.

(Photo credit: Michigan Athletics)

Category: Commentary

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