What to Expect: Indiana at Wisconsin

  • Feb 4, 2025 8:00 am in

Indiana is on the road again Tuesday night, this time to the Kohl Center, to take on Wisconsin. The Badgers are 17-5 and 7-4 in the Big Ten.

The contest will tip at 9 p.m. ET on Peacock:

Losers of three straight and five of six, Indiana heads to a venue where it hasn’t won since 1998: the Kohl Center. Wisconsin’s dominance against Indiana in the building is well-documented and the Badgers are a healthy favorite entering this season’s showdown in Madison.

Despite several key transfer portal losses, including AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn, Wisconsin sits comfortably inside the top 20 of KenPom and is on track for another NCAA tournament appearance.

Indiana isn’t out of the NCAA tournament picture yet, but the Hoosiers didn’t help the cause by losing back-to-back games against Maryland and Purdue due to poor late-game execution.

MEET THE BADGERS

Wisconsin has one of the nation’s top 10 offenses entering Tuesday’s game, according to KenPom. The Badgers rank seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency, fueled by a low turnover rate, excellent free throw shooting, a top 50 2-point field goal percentage, and a top 65 3-point field goal percentage.

North Omaha, Nebraska native John Tonje transferred from Missouri after appearing in just eight games last season for the Tigers due to injury. Now in his sixth year – he played his first four seasons at Colorado State – the 6-foot-5 Tonje leads the Badgers in scoring at 18.6 points per game. Tonje has connected on a team-high 49 3-pointers and is shooting 41.5 percent from distance. He’s also attempted 141 free throws and is shooting 92.9 percent from the stripe.

Sophomore John Blackwell is in the midst of a breakout season in the Badger backcourt. The 6-foot-4 guard from Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, is second on the roster in scoring at 15.5 points per game. Blackwell is shooting 55.6 percent on 2s and 35.1 percent on 3s and is also an excellent free throw shooter at 81.3 percent.

Fifth-year senior Max Klesmit completes the Wisconsin three-guard set. After connecting on nearly 40 percent of his 3s last season, Klesmit is shooting just 28.2 percent from distance in his final season. The 6-foot-4 guard, like his backcourt mates, has been stellar from the free-throw line (84.7 percent).

Senior Kamari McGee is the primary backup name to know from a guard perspective. The 6-foot point guard shoots 51.4 percent and averages 7.2 points in 22 minutes off the bench.

In the frontcourt, the Badgers are led by fifth-year senior Steven Crowl and sophomore Nolan Winter.

Crowl, a seven-footer, can step out and knock in the occasional 3-pointer but is among the league’s most efficient finishers at the rim. He’s shooting 61.6 percent on 2s this season and 66 percent on 2s in conference games. Crowl’s 5.8 rebounds per game leads the team and he also has a team-high 13 blocked shots.

Winter has taken on a more significant role in his second season and is one of the most efficient players in the Big Ten. He’s third on the team in scoring at 10.1 points per game while shooting 59 percent from the field. Winter is making 70.9 percent of his 2s, 39.6 percent from 3 and 79.2 percent from the free-throw line. He is also in the top 20 in the league in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.

Fifth-year senior Carter Gilmore provides depth in the frontcourt. A low-usage player, the 6-foot-7 forward averages 3.5 points in 17 minutes per game.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

(All stats are updated through Sunday’s game and include numbers from conference games only.)

While Wisconsin’s style of play isn’t visually appealing, it wins many games. The Badgers are one of the most fundamentally sound programs in the country and they value taking care of the ball, defensive rebounding, and defending without fouling.

This season, however, the Badgers have combined those fundamentals with elite shooting. Through 11 Big Ten games, Wisconsin is first in the league in 3-point shooting at 39.1 percent. The Badgers also lead the conference in free-throw shooting (81.1 percent) and are fifth in 2-point field goal percentage (54.6).

No Big Ten team is getting a higher percentage of its points from 3 in Big Ten play than Wisconsin (42 percent). In league play, 49.7 percent of Wisconsin’s field goal attempts have been 3s. Over its last four games, Wisconsin is averaging 13.5 made 3-pointers per game.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

Wisconsin is a double-digit favorite. KenPom projects an 11-point victory for the Badgers and an 18 percent chance of an IU win. Bart Torvik’s numbers favor Wisconsin by 12, with a 14 percent chance of a Hoosier upset.

The Badgers are 11-1 in the Kohl Center this season. Their lone defeat came against Michigan, 67-64, on Dec. 3.

While Indiana has been playing better lately and has been competitive in each of its last three losses, this is unlikely to be the year it snaps its losing streak in Madison.

Filed to: