Indiana can build its NCAA tournament case over the next 11 games
Despite a solid 13-3 record and 4-1 start in Big Ten play, Indiana remains out of most projections for the 2025 NCAA tournament.
According to the NCAA’s NET rankings, the Hoosiers have racked up nine of their 11 wins against Quad 3 or 4 competition and have just one win that falls into Quad 1.
After playing the weakest schedule in the Big Ten through five conference games, according to KenPom.com, the competition level picks up significantly for the Hoosiers beginning this weekend.
Indiana’s four Big Ten wins have come against Minnesota, Rutgers, Penn State and USC. Those four teams are a combined 4-14 in conference play.
Starting with IU’s game against Iowa on Saturday at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, IU’s next 11 games are projected to fall in Quad 1. That gives the Hoosiers plenty of chances to build a resume worthy of a return to March Madness. Indiana missed the 2024 NCAA tournament after making the field in 2022 and 2023, Mike Woodson’s first two seasons in Bloomington.
“Iowa is the next team up,” Woodson said Wednesday night after the Hoosiers beat USC in Bloomington. “I’m not looking at the 11 games. I’m looking at Iowa. They’re next on our list, you know, in terms of who we got to play.”
Woodson and the Hoosiers aren’t looking past the Hawkeyes – nor should they – but the next 11 games will be season-defining for Indiana.
Six of IU’s next 11 games are away from Assembly Hall. The Hoosiers are currently 2-3 this season in games played away from Bloomington, including a 1-2 mark in neutral site contests and a 1-1 record in conference games on the road.
Indiana lost its Big Ten road opener 85-68 at Nebraska on Dec. 13 but played much better in its most recent road game. The Hoosiers beat Penn State 77-71 at the Palestra in Philadelphia last Sunday afternoon.
Despite rising into the top 55 in all of the computer numbers used by the NCAA tournament selection committee, Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik’s rankings have the Hoosiers as underdogs in the next 11 games.
According to Pomeroy’s ratings, IU’s best chances for wins in the next 11 are against UCLA (50 percent chance to win), Maryland (48 percent) and Purdue (44 percent). All of those games are at Assembly Hall.
In terms of road opportunities, the Pomeroy ratings have Northwestern (41 percent chance to win), Iowa (37 percent) and Ohio State (30 percent) as IU’s best chance for a road win in the next 11 games.
In total, 17 of Indiana’s 31 regular season games are projected to fall in Quad 1. Given that the Hoosiers have played just four Quad 1 contests, no shortage of opportunities exist for the Hoosiers to stack resume-building wins.
That begins Saturday in Iowa City with the Hawkeyes, who are 11-4. Like Indiana, Iowa is on the outside of most current NCAA tournament projections.
Iowa is 9-1 at home with its lone home defeat coming against Iowa State on Dec. 12. The Hawkeyes own a pair of Big Ten home wins against Northwestern and Nebraska. Iowa needed a buzzer-beater to beat Northwestern and overcame a 15-point second half deficit against Nebraska to win in overtime.
Led by senior Payton Sandfort, Iowa is the nation’s 14th best 3-point shooting team and has the nation’s 20th best offense, according to KenPom.
“They won a big game (against Nebraska) the other night coming from behind,” Woodson said. “We are going to have to go down there and play for 40 minutes to beat Iowa. That’s how good they are at home.”
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