What to Expect: Indiana vs. USC
Indiana seeks its 11th win at home when it hosts USC on Wednesday at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. The Trojans are 9-5 overall and 1-2 in Big Ten play.
Wednesday’s game will tip at 7 p.m. ET on BTN:
After Sunday’s impressive 77-71 win against Penn State at the Palestra, Indiana will try to stretch its winning streak to five when USC comes to Bloomington.
The Trojans, led by first-year coach Eric Musselman, had their four-game winning streak snapped against Michigan on Saturday in Los Angeles. USC led the Wolverines 65-63 with 7:33 left, but Michigan closed the game on a 22-9 run.
Indiana’s hard-fought win at the Palestra was its best win of the season through 15 games. The Hoosiers led by as many as 15 points and made nine 3-pointers to capture their first Quad 1 win.
MEET THE TROJANS
The USC roster was rebuilt in the offseason after Musselman took over for Andy Enfield, who left for SMU. Through 14 games, USC has just one win against a team ranked in the top 100 in KenPom (at Washington).
The Trojans are down a starter as Terrance Williams II, who transferred from Michigan, broke his wrist last month and is out indefinitely following surgery.
Two active Trojans are averaging double figures: Desmond Claude and Chibuzo Agbo.
The 6-foot-6 Claude played his first two seasons at Xavier and leads USC in scoring at 14.9 points per game. The 6-foot-6 guard has scored in double figures in seven straight games and has four games with 20 or more points. Also a capable playmaker for others, Claude averages 3.9 assists and is 11th in the Big Ten in assist rate.
His offensive strengths are finishing at the rim and getting to the line. Claude is sixth in the Big Ten in free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) and is shooting 75.3 percent from the stripe on the season. He makes 55 percent of his 2s.
The 6-foot-7 Agbo is at his third school after previously playing at Texas Tech and Boise State. He’s a career 38.6 percent 3-point shooter and is 34-for-87 (39.1 percent) from distance this season. Agbo has three games with 20 or more points.
Freshman guard Wesley Yates III starts in the backcourt with Claude and is coming off a solid 19-point game against Michigan. In three Big Ten games, Yates is shooting 50 percent on 3s and 60 percent on 2s. He averages 9.1 points and is shooting 85 percent from the free-throw line.
Up front, the Trojans start 6-foot-7 forward Saint Thomas and 6-foot-10 center Josh Cohen.
Thomas broke out last season at Northern Colorado but has struggled with his efficiency at the high-major level. Thomas is shooting just 42.4 percent. He is USC’s leading rebounder at 5.8 per game and has a team-high 21 steals.
Cohen, a fifth-year senior, transferred from UMass and is an efficient post player. He makes 68 percent of his 2s and had a pair of 19-point games early in the season against Idaho State and UT Arlington.
Musselman brings 6-foot-8 sophomore Kevin Patton off the bench and the Murrieta, California native is coming off his best game of the season. Patton scored in double figures for the first time and finished with 14 points in Saturday’s loss to Michigan.
Yale transfer Matt Knowling missed Saturday’s game with an undisclosed injury and his status for Wednesday is unknown. The 6-foot-6 guard averages 3.8 points in 19.2 minutes off the bench.
Backup center Rashaun Agee played just six minutes against Michigan but had his best game of the season in USC’s first Big Ten road game at Washington last month. The Chicago native scored 14 points and pulled down seven rebounds in that contest before fouling out in 30 minutes.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
The strength of the USC offense is its ability to attack mismatches out of its ball-screen-heavy attack. The Trojans rack up a lot of assists and get to the free-throw line at a healthy rate. USC assists on 60.8 percent of its made field goals, which ranks 27th in the country. The Trojans also rank 36th in free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) at 40.8 percent.
USC doesn’t take many 3-pointers and just 24.7 percent of its points are from behind the line. That ranks 323rd in the country. USC also doesn’t generate many second-chance points and the Trojans rank just 275th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
Defensively, USC struggles to defend in the paint. Saint Mary’s, Oregon and Michigan all shot better than 60 percent on 2s against the Trojans. Physically, USC has no one to match up with the size and strength of Oumar Ballo, who has been on a tear since missing the Winthrop game.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
The KenPom projection is Indiana by seven with a 74 percent chance of a Hoosier victory. Bart Torvik’s rankings like IU by six with 72 percent chance of a Hoosier win.
With Malik Reneau sidelined, Indiana has played better over its last two games with its one-big lineup. The floor has opened up for Myles Rice to attack more off the dribble and Luke Goode and Mackenzie Mgbako have capitalized on their in-rhythm 3-point looks. The Hoosiers struggled defensively in the second half at Penn State and will need to tighten things up against a USC offense that will be attacking the paint out of ball screens.
Indiana still has a long way to go before it gets back into the NCAA tournament picture. While a win Wednesday won’t do much to help that cause – it’s a quad 3 opportunity – it’s a game the Hoosiers can’t afford to lose.
Filed to: USC Trojans