Big Ten Power Rankings: Illinois rises after 2-0 west coast trip
Each Big Ten has played at least three conference games after league play resumed last week. Here is our second edition of Big Ten power rankings, which will be published periodically this season:
(Note: Efficiency numbers below only include conference games.)
18. Minnesota (8-6, 0-3, 1.046 PPP, 1.323 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 7)
The Gophers are 0-3 in Big Ten games and none of the games have been close. Minnesota has lost both of its Big Ten games at Williams Arena by a combined 38 points and also fell by 15 at Indiana on Dec. 9. KenPom currently projects Minnesota to finish 12-19 and 4-16 in conference play. Barring an unforeseen turnaround, Minnesota won’t be playing in the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis.
17. Washington (10-5, 1-3, .975 PPP, 1.094 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 10)
The Huskies showed signs of life this past week by beating Maryland at Alaska Airlines Arena before battling Illinois to a four-point loss on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. DJ Davis was terrific in the loss to the Fighting Illini. The senior guard came off the bench, made seven 3-pointers and finished with 31 points. Washington has struggled with its shooting through four Big Ten games. The Huskies are shooting 27.1 percent on 3s and 50.7 percent on 2s. This week, a difficult road trip looms for Danny Sprinkle as Washington plays at Michigan State on Thursday and at Michigan on Sunday.
16. USC (9-5, 1-2, 1.047 PPP, 1.023 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 14)
The Trojans’ four-game winning streak ended on Saturday when Michigan came to the Galen Center and won 85-74. USC was in the game late after a 15-2 run, but the Wolverines answered with two 10-0 runs in the final 10 minutes to put the contest away. Eric Musselman’s team heads east this week to take on IU in Bloomington on Wednesday and Illinois in Champaign on Saturday.
15. Rutgers (8-6, 1-2, 1.028 PPP, 1.122 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 5)
Ace Bailey’s herculean effort wasn’t enough, as the Scarlet Knights fell by 10 to Indiana in Bloomington last week. Bailey went off for 39 points against the Hoosiers, but the absence of Dylan Harper was too much for Rutgers to overcome. Defensively, Rutgers is a mess this season. The Scarlet Knights rank 15th in the Big Ten in points per possession allowed so far and are last in the conference in forcing turnovers. It shouldn’t be surprising without Cliff Omoruyi around to anchor the defense in the paint. Still, Rutgers isn’t going to win many Big Ten games if its defense doesn’t improve quickly.
14. Northwestern (10-5, 1-3, 1.026 PPP, 1.093 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 1)
The Wildcats have played the toughest Big Ten schedule of any team thus far and have had two narrow losses against Iowa and Penn State on the road. Sunday’s 18-point loss at Purdue was the first time the Wildcats haven’t been competitive in a game all season. Northwestern now has a week to regroup before hosting Michigan State on Sunday and Maryland next Thursday. Nick Martinelli is averaging 19.4 points per game this season after scoring just 8.8 points per game last season as a sophomore.
13. Iowa (10-4, 1-2, 1.128 PPP, 1.273 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 2)
Fran McCaffery’s team was blitzed on Friday night in Madison, 116-85. The Badgers hung 1.53 points per possession on the Hawkeyes, who lost by 31 despite scoring 85 points. Iowa has the worst 2-point field goal percentage defense of any team, as opponents are shooting 63 percent inside the arc. The Hawkeyes have a chance to get some positive momentum this week with home games against Nebraska and Indiana on the schedule.
12. Penn State (12-3, 2-2, 1.089 PPP, 1.071 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 17)
The Nittany Lions could have stretched their winning streak to five games against Indiana at the Palestra, but an early second-half run was too much for Penn State to overcome in a 77-71 loss. The Nittany Lions were a dreadful 3-for-21 on 3s against Indiana. Penn State is near the top of the Big Ten in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) and leads the league in turnover percentage at 23.7. If Penn State hopes to finish in the top half of the league standings, improvement on the boards is essential. Penn State currently ranks 14th in the league in offensive rebounding percentage and 16th in defensive rebounding percentage.
11. Indiana (12-3, 3-1, 1.103 PPP, 1.053 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 18)
The Hoosiers won two games this past week without leading scorer Malik Reneau, who went down with a knee injury in the opening minute of the Rutgers game. Indiana’s 3-point shooting came to life in both games as the Hoosiers went 12-for-27 against the Scarlet Knights and 9-for-23 against Penn State at the Palestra. Indiana is off to a solid 3-1 start in Big Ten play but has played the weakest schedule thus far. That’s going to change soon. After Wednesday’s game against USC, KenPom has the Hoosiers as an underdog in its next 11 games.
10. Ohio State (9-5, 1-2, .96 PPP, 1.041 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 12)
It’s hard to know what to make of Ohio State. The Buckeyes have key non-conference wins against Texas and Kentucky, but also lost by 24 against Maryland and 38 against Auburn. Last week, Ohio State fell by seven at home to Michigan State. Turnovers and poor 3-point shooting doomed the Buckeyes in the loss. Ohio State committed 16 turnovers and shot 7-for-27 (25.9 percent) from distance. The Buckeyes need to take care of business tonight at Minnesota, which is already 0-2 in conference games at Williams Arena.
9. Maryland (11-4, 1-3, 1.1 PPP, 1.068 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 3)
The Terps went west this past week and lost close games against Washington and Oregon. It won’t be the last time that happens to a Big Ten team this season. As solid as Maryland’s predictive metrics are, the Terps have just two quality wins on their resume and have significant work to do in Big Ten play to make the NCAA tournament. Derik Queen has been terrific in his debut season but had his worst game (four points, one rebound in 17 minutes) against Washington.
8. Wisconsin (11-3, 1-2, 1.197 PPP, 1.096 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 4)
The Badgers have steadied the ship after a three-game losing streak in early December. Wisconsin has won its last three games, including a 116-85 beatdown of Iowa on Friday night. Sophomore guard John Blackwell was terrific in that win, finishing with 32 points, eight rebounds and five assists in 32 minutes. The Badgers head to Rutgers tonight in a pivotal game for both teams.
7. Nebraska (12-2, 2-1, .964 PPP, 1.021 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 8)
Nebraska was expected to take a step backward following the graduation of Keisei Tominaga and the loss of Rienk Mast to a knee injury that will sideline him all season. That hasn’t been the case, as Nebraska has now won six straight, including a 66-58 triumph against UCLA on Saturday in Lincoln. Brice Williams is one of the best wings in the Big Ten. Through 14 games, he’s averaging 18.8 points and shooting 40.4 percent on 3s and 90.5 percent from the free throw line. Nebraska has two road opportunities this week: Iowa and Purdue.
6. Oregon (13-2, 2-2, 1.069 PPP, 1.148 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 11)
Dana Altman’s team rebounded from an embarrassing 109-77 beatdown at home against Illinois and beat Maryland 83-79 on Sunday at Knight Arena. The Ducks already have two home losses in conference play, which makes this week’s trip east to play Ohio State and Penn State important. Oregon has been a terrific 3-point shooting team in its first four Big Ten games. The Ducks are 39.1 percent from distance. However, Oregon currently ranks 16th in the conference in points per possession allowed at 1.148.
5. UCLA (11-3, 2-1, .988 PPP, .963 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 9)
UCLA doesn’t play a sexy style of basketball, but its defense is among the best in the country. According to KenPom, the Bruins rank fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Over the weekend, UCLA suffered a hard-fought 66-58 loss at Nebraska, but it was missing one of its most important players, forward Eric Dailey. The Bruins can make a statement on Tuesday when Michigan comes into Pauley Pavilion.
4. Purdue (11-4, 3-1, 1.179 PPP, 1.058 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 16)
Purdue remains firmly in the mix in the Big Ten standings and took care of business this past week with comfortable wins at Minnesota and against Northwestern at Mackey Arena. Braden Smith has elevated his level of play as a junior. The 6-foot guard from Westfield ranks second in the Big Ten in assist rate and is averaging 15.4 points, 8.6 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 2.1 steals in 35.7 minutes per game.
3. Michigan State (12-2, 3-0, 1.216 PPP, .912 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 15)
One of two remaining unbeaten teams in Big Ten play, Tom Izzo’s team has won seven straight. The Spartans are now 2-0 on the road in league play after a 69-62 win at Ohio State on Friday. In terms of efficiency margin, Michigan State is the class of the league through three games. The Spartans rank first in the league in points per possession (1.216) and points per possession allowed (.912).
2. Michigan (11-3, 3-0, 1.1 PPP, 1.035 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 13)
It hasn’t taken Dusty May any time to turn things around in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines are 3-0 in Big Ten play, including wins at Wisconsin and USC. Danny Wolf is a matchup nightmare for Big Ten frontcourts due to his playmaking ability at 7-foot. In Saturday’s win against USC, Wolf finished with 21 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists, six blocked shots and two steals in 33 minutes. The Wolverines conclude their west coast trip tomorrow night at UCLA.
1. Illinois (11-3, 3-1, 1.136 PPP, 1.01 PPP allowed, conference SOS: 6)
The Fighting Illini swept their west coast trip, beating Oregon 109-77 on Thursday and Washington 81-77 on Sunday. Despite turning over nearly the entire roster, Brad Underwood has Illinois rolling. Kasparus Jakucionis is one of the top freshmen in the country and the Fighting Illini play with a pace that is matched by few teams in the league. Illinois returns to Champaign for games against Penn State and USC this week.
(Photo credit: Illinois Athletics)
Filed to: Big Ten Power Rankings