Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of March 17, 2024

It has been an absolutely wild couple of days, as multiple bid stealers have created a strong yet crowded bubble. A few sections of the seed list are due for a final scrub today, but the tweaks from here should be minor. The A-10 and AAC Championship games could also trigger some movement at the lower end of the bracket.

Final projections will be posted later this afternoon before the selection show.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 1A: Home vs. teams ranked 1-15 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-25 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-40
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351

The Bracket

The projections below are based on all games played through March 16, 2024 as well as the Ivy League Championship Game. Following the bracket, I included my last four in and first four teams out.

BOSTON (EAST)		DETROIT (MIDWEST)
Brooklyn – March 22/24		Indianapolis – March 22/24
1) Connecticut		1) Purdue
16) Howard / Wagner		16) Stetson
8) Boise State		8) Dayton
9) TCU		9) Colorado State

Pittsburgh – March 21/23		Brooklyn – March 22/24
5) BYU		5) Texas Tech
12) McNeese State		12) Samford
4) Duke		4) Kentucky
13) Yale		13) Vermont

Omaha – March 21/23		Salt Lake City – March 21/23
6) Florida		6) Saint Mary’s
11) James Madison		11) Oregon
3) Kansas		3) Creighton
14) Oakland		14) Colgate

Charlotte – March 21/23		Omaha – March 21/23
7) Clemson		7) Nevada
10) Colorado / Oklahoma		10) Florida Atlantic
2) Tennessee		2) Iowa State
15) Long Beach State		15) South Dakota State

LOS ANGELES (WEST)		DALLAS (SOUTH)
Charlotte – March 21/23		Memphis – March 22/24
1) North Carolina		1) Houston
16) Grambling / Montana St.		16) Saint Peter’s
8) Texas		8) Nebraska
9) Northwestern		9) New Mexico

Spokane – March 22/24		Spokane – March 22/24
5) San Diego State		5) Wisconsin
12) VCU		12) Grand Canyon
4) Alabama		4) Auburn
13) Charleston		13) UAB

Memphis – March 22/24		Pittsburgh – March 21/23
6) Utah State		6) South Carolina
11) Drake		11) North Carolina State
3) Baylor		3) Illinois
14) Morehead State		14) Akron

Salt Lake City – March 21/23		Indianapolis – March 22/24
7) Gonzaga		7) Washington State
10) Mississippi State		10) Michigan State / Texas A&M
2) Arizona		2) Marquette
15) Western Kentucky		15) Longwood

Last Four In:

Michigan State

Texas A&M

Colorado

Oklahoma

First Four Out:

Indiana State

Seton Hall

St. John’s

Virginia

Conference Breakdown:

Big 12 (9): Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State*, Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech

SEC (8): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Big Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

Mountain West (6): Boise State, Colorado St., Nevada, New Mexico*, San Diego State, Utah State

ACC (4): Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State*

Pac-12 (4): Arizona, Colorado, Oregon*, Washington State

Big East (3): Connecticut*, Creighton, Marquette

American (2): Florida Atlantic, UAB

Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, VCU

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s*

America East: Vermont*

Atlantic Sun: Stetson*

Big Sky: Montana State*

Big South: Longwood*

Big West: Long Beach State*

Coastal: Charleston*

Conference USA: Western Kentucky*

Horizon: Oakland*

Ivy: Yale*

MAAC: Saint Peter’s*

MAC: Akron*

MEAC: Howard*

Missouri Valley: Drake*

Northeast: Wagner*

Ohio Valley: Morehead State*

Patriot: Colgate*

Southern: Samford*

Southland: McNeese State*

SWAC: Grambling*

Summit: South Dakota State*

Sun Belt: James Madison*

WAC: Grand Canyon*

* – Automatic Bid

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

See More: Bracketology, 2023-2024 Bracketology