What to Expect: Indiana at Maryland
Indiana will take its five-game winning streak on the road Tuesday night to College Park. The Hoosiers will take on Maryland at the Xfinity Center. The Terps are 14-7 overall and 5-5 in Big Ten play.
Tuesday’s game will tip at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2:
Indiana has reeled off five straight wins and has reentered the Associated Press top 25 poll due to its recent success. But the schedule is about to get daunting for the Hoosiers.
This week, Indiana travels to Maryland before hosting No. 1 Purdue on Saturday in Bloomington. The Terps are 11-1 at home with their only loss coming to UCLA back on Dec. 14 by 27 points.
MEET THE TERRAPINS
Kevin Willard is in his first season in College Park after 12 seasons at Seton Hall. Willard led the Pirates to five NCAA tournament appearances, but never advanced to the Sweet Sixteen.
Willard’s first Maryland team combines transfer portal additions and holdovers from the Mark Turgeon era.
Jahmir Young, who came over from Charlotte, is the key name on the scouting report. The 6-foot-1 guard is from Upper Marlboro, Maryland, and has been comfortable returning home. Young leads the Terps in scoring with 16 points and 3.3 assists per game. Young has the 27th-highest usage rate in the country and is shooting 49.2 percent on 2s and 26.2 percent on 3s. He’s making more than four free throws per game and connects at an 82.5 percent clip from the line. Young loves to go left and get into the lane off the dribble.
Another transfer, Don Carey, starts at the two with Hakim Hart at the three.
Maryland is the fourth school for Carey, who previously played at Mount Saint Mary’s, Siena and Georgetown. Carey is also from Upper Marlboro and averages 7.3 points and 2.2 rebounds in 25.6 minutes per game. Carey is 6-foot-5 and has attempted a team-high 111 3-pointers. He’s connected on just 30.6 percent of his attempts.
Hart is doing an excellent job of getting to the line again this season. He’s in the top 25 of the Big Ten in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) and is shooting 81.5 percent from the stripe. He’s the team’s third-leading scorer at 11.6 points per game and is second in minutes per game at 31.2.
The backup minutes in the backcourt go primarily to Ian Martinez and Jahari Long. Martinez is in his second season at Maryland after transferring from Utah and Long followed Willard from Seton Hall. Long is shooting 50 percent on 3s in limited attempts (18) and averages three points in 12.1 minutes per game. Martinez is also a capable shooter who is 12-for-32 (37.5 percent) from distance this season.
Senior Donta Scott starts at the four with sophomore Julian Reese at the five.
Scott’s efficiency numbers are the lowest of his four-year career in College Park. He’s second on the team in scoring at 11.9 points per game, but is shooting just 47.2 percent on 2s and 30.4 percent on 3s. Scott is one of the better rebounders in the league, ranking 11th in offensive rebounding percentage and 25th in defensive rebounding percentage in conference games.
The 6-foot-9, 230-pound Reese shoots 65.2 percent from the field and averages 10.4 points and 6.4 rebounds in 25.8 minutes per game. Fouls have been a major issue for Reese, who has fouled out twice and finished eight games with four fouls.
Maryland will play Scott at the five and shift the 6-foot-8 Hart over to the four in its “small” lineup. Patrick Emilien, a 6-foot-7 transfer from St. Francis (NY), will provide backup minutes at the three. Emilien plays 17.2 minutes off the bench and averages 2.8 points and 3.3 rebounds per game.
All stats in the graphic are for conference games only and are current as of Monday afternoon.
The primary strengths for Maryland are offensive rebounding, getting to the foul line and forcing turnovers.
The Terps rank third in the Big Ten on the offensive glass, third in opponent turnover percentage and sixth in free throw rate (FTA/FGA).
Maryland, however, has struggled to take advantage in any of these areas. The Terps are one of the most turnover-prone teams in the Big Ten, struggle on the defensive glass and also foul a lot.
As solid as Maryland has been at home, its profile in conference play has many holes. Maryland is 11th in the league in 3-point shooting percentage and is 12th in 2-point field goal percentage defense.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
The KenPom projection is Maryland by two with a 45 percent chance of an Indiana victory. The Sagarin ratings like the Terps by just under a point.
Indiana is 3-4 in road games this season and has lost the four games by an average of 14.5 points. But the Hoosiers are playing their best basketball of the season right now even though Xavier Johnson remains sidelined with a foot injury.
The keys for Indiana will be containing Young, who averages 24 points in Big Ten home games, and keeping the Terps off the free throw line. While no game in late January is a must-win in college basketball, this is a pivotal game for the Terps to stay on the right side of the NCAA tournament bubble.
Maryland, of course, will have to account for Trayce Jackson-Davis. Jackson-Davis averaged only 13.5 points against the Terps last season in a pair of wins, but shot an efficient 11-for-18 from the field.
Filed to: Maryland Terrapins