What to Expect: Purdue

  • 02/27/2017 12:02 pm in

Indiana is back on the road Tuesday night as the Hoosiers travel to West Lafayette to take on Purdue. The Boilermakers are 23-6 overall and 12-4 in the Big Ten.

The game will be broadcast at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 with Dan Shulman and Dan Dakich on the call:

Mackey Arena should be rocking Tuesday night. Purdue, coming off of an 82-70 loss on Saturday at Michigan, has a chance to clinch a share of the Big Ten regular season crown.

The Big Ten title was Wisconsin’s to lose at one point, but the Badgers have faltered in recent weeks with four losses in their last five contests. The primary beneficiary of the Wisconsin slide has been Purdue, which had its six-game winning streak snapped over the weekend in Ann Arbor.

Despite the loss to the Wolverines, Purdue needs just one win in its final two games to grab a piece of the league title. And if Purdue can beat Indiana on Tuesday and then win at Northwestern on Sunday, the Boilermakers can win the conference title outright.

Indiana, meanwhile, finally stopped its slide on Saturday night with a win over Northwestern. At 16-13, the Hoosiers are staring at the prospect of missing the NCAA tournament for the second time in four seasons. The NIT is no certainly, either, as Indiana is a No. 4 seed in one of the recent projections for that field.

MEET THE BOILERMAKERS

Is Purdue the Big Ten’s best chance to advance deep in the NCAA tournament? Given Wisconsin’s recent slide, the Boilermakers are the league’s best team entering the final week of the regular season.

Purdue has a star in Caleb Swanigan and is ranked in the top 22 nationally in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. Purdue is 0-2 in the NCAA tournament since 2012, but looks like Matt Painter’s best chance to advance in March in quite some time.

Swanigan is a national player of the year candidate, but is probably just outside the top tier at this point. It’ll be a surprise if he doesn’t win Big Ten player of the year.

The Homestead product was the Big Ten’s best defensive rebounder last season, but is now a one-man wrecking crew as a sophomore. His defensive rebounding percentage in league play is 33.7 percent and he has 23 double-doubles. Swanigan is also making 46.2 percent of his 3-pointers this season.

Junior forward Vincent Edwards (pictured) dominated Indiana in the first matchup in Bloomington. Edwards went for 26 points and eight rebounds in Purdue’s 69-64 victory over the Hoosiers on Feb. 8. He’s third on Purdue in scoring at 11.8 points per game. Edwards is an excellent free throw shooter (82.6 percent) and is hitting 40.8 percent of his 3s in Big Ten games.

Junior center Isaac Haas is a luxury that most teams would love to have coming off the bench. The 7-foot-2, 290 pound Haas is Purdue’s second leading scorer at 13.2 points in 20.6 minutes per game. Haas is making close to 57 percent of his 2s in league games.

The rest of Purdue’s eight-man rotation consists of starters Carsen Edwards, P.J. Thompson and Dakota Mathias and backups Spike Albrecht and Ryan Cline.

Mathias is 17th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 47.6. Several of his teammates are also capable from distance. Cline is hitting 42.4 percent, Thompson is 39.6 percent and Edwards is 35.7. With Swanigan and Haas in the post, Purdue usually does a nice job of finding shooters when opponents double down in the post.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

The free throw line was a problem for Indiana in the first meeting earlier this month (the Hoosiers were outscored by five in a five-point loss) and the concern hasn’t gone away heading into Tuesday.

In 10 Big Ten losses, opponents have outscored Indiana by 76 points at the foul line. Purdue’s advantage in Bloomington was only five points, but Indiana’s free throw differential on the road in Big Ten games is substantial. The Hoosiers have the Big Ten’s worst opponent free throw rate (FTA/FGA) at 45.3 percent.

Turnovers, of course, are the other major problem for the Hoosiers. Indiana has been outscored by 85 points off of turnovers in 16 Big Ten games. In the 10 losses, the number is 94 or 9.4 points per game.

If the Hoosiers come close to these averages at the line or on free throws, winning in an environment like Mackey Arena will be close to impossible.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The Pomeroy projection is Purdue by 11 with an 84 percent chance of a Boilermaker victory. Sagarin projects a nine-point win for Purdue.

With only two conference games remaining, Indiana is likely destined for a Wednesday game in the Big Ten tournament for the first time since the league expanded to 14 teams.

Purdue has plenty to play for after Saturday’s slip up in Ann Arbor. The Boilermakers are a lock for the NCAA tournament, but certainly want to win an outright league title and beating rival Indiana in the process would make the victory sweeter in West Lafayette.

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  • pcantidote

    The only way we win this game is a lights out shooting effort from 3 point land. And I mean one of those 15 + made 3 games. I’d be stunned if Painter doesn’t extend his defense out to the 3 point line and just switch everything on the weave to make sure that kind of shooting night doesn’t happen.

    I’ve changed my mind and will at least watch the beginning of this game. Can’t say that I’ll make it all the way through it though.

  • iugradmark

    The turnover problem is still our biggest challenge. We barely survived Northwestern because they did not punish us or score as much against us from our turnovers. We are who we are at this point so I expect that we will continue the turnovers against Purdue and they will not be so kind.

  • Jeremy Jackson

    I have a ticket for the game. Praying for a decent showing from the Hoosiers.

  • AndyCapp

    Wish we could bask in the warmth of the Northwestern win a little longer… especially because, on paper at least, we just have trouble matching up with them. PU doesn’t steal or block well, so as long as we don’t have too many unforced turnovers we may be able to keep it close and make it a game. Common sense and the media pundits suggest however it is going to be a long night for our Hoosiers, especially since it is THEIR senior night.

  • AndyCapp

    Yeh, hard to see this going our way. Glad you’ll be watching though, knew you would come around 😉

  • Bankshot

    Who’s a better coach, Crean or Painter?

  • Ms hoosier

    Correct!! We should have beat NW by 15 and yet we were fortunate to squeak out a win. NW helped us win the game. It’s gonna be hard to watch this game because I think it’s gonna get ugly.

  • Arch Puddington

    Both are good, neither is great. And by that I mean that both are coaches who win more than they lose while competing at the very top level of college basketball, but neither has the ability to sustain all aspects of program at the level necessary to compete for national championships. Crean has recruited more good players than Painter, but Painter is a better x’s and 0’s guy (and that is not just a supposition; even a quick look at Kenpom rankings show that Painter’s teams are far better balanced than Crean’s. Painter has often placed teams in the top 30 or so defenses in the country, whereas CTC almost never does, but Painter’s teams are often efficient offensively as well). Each is capable of putting together a top 10-12 team every now and then, but with some extended stretches of mediocrity (or worse) in between.

    I’d take Crean if I thought I needed a recruiter, and Painter if I thought I needed a bench coach. Neither has more than a Cinderella shot at a Final Four.

  • pcantidote

    Agree 100%. All you have to do is look at the play Painter drew up to get Swanigan the look that was effectively the game clincher against us a couple weeks ago. Our best offense for game winners is apparently to ignore the coach’s request for a TO and go with the flow.

  • Meadows007

    Driving from Bloomington to the game, leaving around 3:00. Any suggestions on the best route to get there?

  • iugradmark

    Painter is a good fit for Purdue. Purdue will always struggle a bit with recruiting v. Indiana but Painter focuses on putting together teams with role players that fit his system. I think his biggest miss was not getting better guard play these past few years. He has had really good inside players but guard play has been just so-so.

    Crean is a home run type coach. He is always looking for top talent and when he gets a bit of it, he can have some success. Unfortunately he has a ton of misses and that puts him in the position of offering scholarships to international centers, Texas big men that have been skipped over or scrambling to find a graduate player that can help for a year or two. I don’t feel like Indiana is any closer to firm footing under Crean while I think Painter has established Purdue as a more reliable middle to top 5 in the Big type team. Neither coach excites me but I think Painter will have a more successful program.

  • Meadows007

    Neither are great, maybe Crean by a little bit. I know if I was a Purdue fan, their early tournament exits with very talented teams would infuriate me. Crean has had more recent success. Since back to back sweet sixteens in ’08-’09 and ’09-’10, Painter hasn’t made it out of the second round.

  • Sandra Wilson

    Painter has 2 Sweet Sixteens….08-09 and 09-10….Not disagreeing with you on coaching, in fact, this year should really tell how well he can coach….Winning the B1G doesn’t mean much, since it is as poor as it’s ever been….They should do well in the NCAA’s because there aren’t many dominant teams this year and there’s probably not a team out there they couldn’t beat….If they lose, I doubt it will be poor strategy or strange substitutions that cause them to be eliminated.

  • Tcuomo

    IDK, since 2012 Purdue’s final AdjD in KenPom have been 113, 72, 90, 54, and 11. As of right now they are all the way up to 15 in this years metrics. IU finished 21 in 2013 and 38 in 2014. I wouldn’t say that is far superior to IU. Although, it is worth noting that Purdue had dominant defenses in 2010 and 2011, where both teams finished top 10 in AdjD. I agree that both coaches are good, not great. At least IU has been able to get wins in the NCAA since 2012.

  • HoosierStuckInKY

    Go north until you smell it. Then head west until you step in it. You’re there.

  • CreanFaithful

    Nicely done

  • TomJameson

    I’ll have to wash my mouth out with soap after “saying” this, but PU will probably beat us by 20+. We’ll likely have around 23 turnovers and fight foul trouble all night. I predict TB and/or JM will foul out, and 2 or 3 more will end the game with 4 each.

    Pretty sure we won’t have to worry about overtime in this one.

  • inLinE6

    I have a feeling we’re winning out from here and somehow sneak back into the tourney…

  • Bankshot

    All great points! Is it easier to recruit at IU or Purdue?

  • inadvertentelbows_stillhurt

    The story is how many Hoosiers foul out guarding CS … and will every turnover draw an IU sucks chant…

  • Missing Moye

    Funny, I have a feeling that we’re losing out from here and missing the NIT.

  • The Lights Go Down

    46 to 231. Takes you right into Lafayette. Bring smelling salts.

  • HoosierOne

    Anything’s possible! Go Hoosiers!

  • Sherronhasaheadache

    No matter the outcome PU will always be little brother.

  • Zora Clevenger

    We make the drive frequently. 46-231 is reliably best. Plus it takes you directly into WL. Old 37/various forest roads to Martinsville, then 67 to Indy, then 465/65 is better and more scenic, but you gotta know your way around Morgan-Monroe. Plus it takes you through Hindustan.

  • Koko

    Izzo

  • Koko

    Let Freddie loose on Calib…..nothing to lose.

  • Zora Clevenger

    Crean recruits and develops guys better. Painter knows how to put his team (of guys IU didn’t want) in a better position to win.

  • BL4IU

    Similar thought but like to see him on Edwards; get really physical with him.

  • Sherronhasaheadache

    Yeah hack the crap out of him.

  • Koko

    Good point….Edwards would wilt under the physical pressure from Freddie faster than Calib would.

  • Meadows007

    I can navigate that Old 37 to 67 then 465/65 route. So you’re saying that’s generally the fastest? Or 46 to 231?

  • Zora Clevenger

    Same 2:15. The Old 37, Hacker Creek, Liberty Church, Jordan, Burton route to Martinsville is just a nicer drive. But it does leave you on the far east side of Lafayette once you get there, so you have to get across town. 231 takes you right by Mackey.

  • Brad

    I think we can expect a beat down. It will be interesting to see where our NIT seed is after the loss. That OSU game may determine whether we play in the postseason or not. I can’t see how we get in to NIT if we lose out. It’s just a sad state of the program when we are debating if we can get in the NIT.

  • Austin Alexander

    Luckily Yogi’s been doing it in Dallas, so I’ve had some fun watching a Hoosier play. I drink more beer watching IU play than I probably should. I no longer use them as an example of teamwork and good inside-out play to my son…like I did against Kansas and UNC. I’m just hoping we beat Purdue. That would make my day.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Amen to that. Been starting each game with a Miller High Life 16oz six pack. Gone by end of game with regrets!

  • Golly. 11 turnovers in the first half, down by seven. And that last turnover, RJ to TB, ball just leisurely bounces past TB into a Purdue player’s hands. That’s not playing fast causing turnovers, that’s just pure loss of concentration. It’s bizarre to me.

  • mharv2631

    Anyone see Virginia last night? What a defensive clinic. It was fun to watch, and that Kyle Guy kid is pretty good also.

  • mharv2631

    Been seeing it for years. So

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Something is really off with RJ. I have never seen someone regress this much on the court.

  • KingofKentucky

    By 10 minutes to go in the 2nd half your predictions became reality.

  • I hear you, but that TO I reference was all on TB — the pass was fine, TB just… I don’t know… let it bounce past him.

  • GaHoosier

    Vote:

    What/who is uglier?

    1. The free throw discprenancy
    2. Purdue fans

  • Okay. I just watched that play about seven times. I do NOT see the foul on DD. I mean seriously, he didn’t make contact with Swanigan. I think he didn’t in the two other fouls they just called on him as well.

  • GaHoosier

    Agreed. Purdue is the better team, but the refs are just giving them the Win!!!!

  • mharv2631

    We are going to go 0’fer with that crew.

  • Okay, yeah, TB’s 4th was clearly an over-the-back foul. (I’m a little behind the game at the moment.)

  • TomJameson

    Turnovers were less, and the score wasn’t as bad as I feared it could have been, but I was pretty sure that foul discrepancy would hand true. Sadly!