Pomeroy Preview: Minnesota at Indiana

  • 01/16/2010 1:28 pm in

Meet the 2009-2010 Minnesota Golden Gophers. 3-2 in the Big Ten. 12-5 overall. And really, really solid on defense. But that’s what we’ve come to expect from Tubby Smith coached teams: A rugged style of play that’s not particularly fun to watch, but produces wins. Winning, for those of you scoring at home, is normally the preferred outcome in athletic competition.

As you can see by glancing at Pomeroy’s numbers, there are few areas in which the Hoosiers compare favorably to Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are defending exceptionally well — they’re third nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, sixth in defensive turnover percentage and 28th in defensive effective field goal percentage.

The turnover percentage, in particular, should be of concern. While the Hoosiers do excel at forcing turnovers — 66th nationally in defensive turnover percentage — they’re giving quite of few possessions back with their 22.6 percent turnover percentage — 263rd nationally. Minnesota, on the other hand, does a solid job taking care of the ball — 62nd nationally in turnover percentage.

The team that effectively controls tempo will likely win this game. Indiana will look to score in transition and attempt to take better care of the ball. And Minnesota will look to continue carrying out its winning formula: slow it down, take care of the ball and take high percentage looks.

Pomeroy has it going down like this: Minnesota 77, Indiana 65. What say you?

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  • peaychris

    i hate to be a debbie downer, but iu's half court offense looks pretty bad. i hope we will be able to score some in transition but that means we have to grab some boards. like the Gin Blossoms song lryic goes “if you dont expect to much from me, you might not be let down”. thats my approach the rest of the year.

  • Druid

    I’ve just about have lost all hope for a competitive season this year. I say Minnesota by 15. How sad is it to be even contemplating this? We’re not much better this year than last.

  • marsh21

    This won't be a pretty game as Minnesota plays agressive for 40 minutes. If we can stay within 10 it will be great.

  • Bryan

    I'm thinking Pomeroy's got the score way too high, but the margin of victory (low teens) is quite plausible. Tubby ball isn't pretty, and doesn't typically produce big blowouts, but it does tend to reliably beat teams you're supposed to beat (like our poor Hoosiers).

  • I’d like to respectfully disagree. The KenPom stats are misleading for the Gophers. If the game is slow and both teams are forced to fight it out with half-court execution,the Gophers might be in serious trouble. Our offense (in the half-court in particular) is bad. We score efficiently when we are forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. A slow, half-court game where Indiana takes care of the ball is the Hoosiers best shot at winning.

  • aceman07

    I expect one good half of offensive basketball for the Hoosiers! That's seems to be the pattern with or without Mo Creek. They have a few bad offensive halves in a row (19 in the 2nd against Illinois, then two bad halves at MICH) then they somehow manage to have a good half. They did it against Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan (1st game) and so I expect at least one good half of basketball I would prefer it come in the second half after a defensive struggle in the first half. I'm going to remain somewhat optimistic as I have all year and say that the Hoosiers are due for another good game and may pull this one out after a low scoring first half! – Man, I almost feel like this optimism before games is just to force myself to watch the game expecting more than what I know in my heart is possible.

  • JerryCT

    I really donot like the adjusted offense for IU ( 200 ) compared to Minn adj defense ( 3 ). I don't see anywhere on the floor where we have an advantage to exploit , either individually or as a team.

    Still I will be glued to the tube to see if we throw in any new wrinkles that we can build on

  • cooper

    I'd be impressed if IU can score over 60 pts. They really should press but I doubt it will happen

  • aceman07

    Can anyone else figure out why we've totally abandoned the zone and 3/4 court press? It seems like it worked against some good, bad, and average competition and we had success scoring because the pace of the game was sped up and now I haven't seen it at all in a couple games. It seems like that would be an effective way of countering MINN slow pace of play and the propensity for slowing the game down. Any thoughts?

  • SeattleHoosierFan

    I'm saying Indiana by five. We've done very well at home, and our crowd will disrupt Minnesota. Ya gotta believe!

  • aceman07

    Optimism pays off in the end!!! Go IU!

  • MikeinNC

    Wow, good call.