IU football is favored by 44.5 points against Western Kentucky in Week 3

Photos from IU football's 55-0 win against Howard at Memorial Stadium.

For the third straight week, IU football is a heavy favorite ahead of its Saturday matchup against Western Kentucky at Memorial Stadium.

The Hoosiers opened as a 44.5-point favorite against the Hilltoppers, who are 0-2. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projection is Indiana 48, Western Kentucky 7, with a 100 percent chance of victory for the Hoosiers.

Western Kentucky lost 49-14 in Week 1 at Nevada and 70-20 in Week 2 at Georgia.

It’s the third consecutive week in which the Hoosiers are favored by more than 40 points. Kickoff on Saturday is set for 4 p.m. ET on Peacock.

Indiana, now ranked No. 4 in both polls, beat North Texas 52-16 in Week 1 and Howard 55-0 in Week 2, a game shortened to 55 minutes because it was so lopsided.

North Texas bounced back from its 36-point loss to Indiana with a 44-6 win against UNLV.

Saturday’s contest against the Hilltoppers will be the sixth all-time meeting between the two programs. The series has been competitive in the past.

Western Kentucky and IU first met on August 30, 2008, at Memorial Stadium and the Hoosiers won 31-13 behind four touchdowns – two passing, two rushing – from quarterback Kellen Lewis.

Indiana then traveled to Bowling Green two years later and beat the Hilltoppers 38-21 on September 21, 2010. IU quarterback Ben Chappell threw for 366 yards and three touchdowns in the win.

The last three meetings in the series, however, have been decided by a total of eight points.

On September 19, 2015, Indiana needed 355 passing yards from Nate Sudfeld and 203 rushing yards from Jordan Howard to beat Western Kentucky, 38-35. The Hilltoppers were coached by Jeff Brohm, who later coached at Purdue and now coaches at Louisville.

The two programs didn’t meet again until six years later in Bowling Green, as IU edged Western Kentucky 33-31 on September 25, 2021. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 373 yards and Stephen Carr ran for 109 yards and two touchdowns in the narrow win.

Most recently, IU needed overtime to beat Western Kentucky 33-30 on September 17, 2022. The Hoosiers needed a touchdown pass from Connor Bazelak and a two-point conversion to tie the game with less than a minute left in regulation. In overtime, Charles Campbell’s 51-yard field goal lifted the Hoosiers to a victory.

As Rick Bozich pointed out on Sunday, IU football’s total margin of victory in its previous matchups against Western Kentucky is 43 points. That’s less than the opening spread of 44.5 that IU is favored by on Saturday against the Hilltoppers.

The lopsided outcomes may continue for Indiana for the foreseeable future.

According to ESPN’s FPI, Indiana’s win probabilities for its first two Big Ten games are 95.6 percent against Northwestern and 98 percent against Rutgers.

See More: Football