2026 NCAA tournament: Previewing Michigan vs. UConn in the national championship

Nine Big Ten programs made the NCAA tournament this season, including regular-season champion Michigan and tournament champion Purdue.

After the first weekend of March Madness, Ohio State, Wisconsin and UCLA were eliminated, leaving six programs entering the Sweet Sixteen.

Four Big Ten teams advanced to the Elite Eight after Iowa beat Nebraska in the Sweet Sixteen and UConn beat Michigan State.

In the Elite Eight, Iowa lost to Illinois, which advanced the Fighting Illini to the Final Four for the first time since 2005. Michigan beat Tennessee to secure a second Final Four bid for the Big Ten.

In Saturday’s Final Four, Illinois fell to UConn while Michigan rolled past Arizona to reach the national championship game.

Here’s a look at tonight’s matchup between the Wolverines and Huskies for the national championship:

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 2 UConn (Indianapolis, Monday, 8:50 p.m., TBS/TruTV)

Is the Big Ten’s national title drought in men’s college basketball going to end? We’ll find out tonight.

The conference has already won the CFP national championship (Indiana) and the women’s college basketball championship (UCLA) and can claim the men’s college basketball championship tonight with a Michigan win over UConn.

If the Wolverines cut down the nets, it will be the first Big Ten national championship in men’s college basketball since 2000, when Michigan State beat Florida. That national championship game also took place in Indianapolis.

UConn, however, is looking for its third national championship in four seasons and seventh overall. Each of UConn’s six national championships has come in the last 27 years, and a win tonight could put the Huskies just one back of Kentucky for second all-time.

There are plenty of intriguing storylines in tonight’s game, including Dusty May attempting to win his first national championship just 75 miles from where he played high school basketball. It’s also a chance for UConn freshman Braylon Mullins to win the title in his home state. Mullins starred at Greenfield-Central High School, which is just over 20 miles from Indianapolis.

In addition to those storylines, UConn star Tarris Reed will match up against his former team in Michigan, where he spent his first two seasons before transferring after Juwan Howard was fired in 2024.

So who has the upper hand tonight? Michigan is a solid favorite and rightfully so.

The Wolverines have won their first five tournament games by an average of 21.6 points and have been the best team in the field entering Monday’s contest.

The experience and championship pedigree of UConn, however, can’t be discounted. Dan Hurley already has a pair of national championships, as does senior forward Alex Karaban.

The primary concern for Michigan tonight is the health of senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg. The Big Ten player of the year is expected to play despite clearly being limited in Saturday’s semifinal against Arizona. How effective Lendeborg will be is an open question, but he’s going to give it a go. Fortunately for Michigan, the Wolverines are one of the most well-rounded teams in the sport with a frontcourt rotation that also features Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara, two of the country’s most dominant bigs.

When Michigan is making 3-pointers and defending with relentless pressure like it was against Arizona on Saturday, the Wolverines are virtually unbeatable. Michigan shot 44.4 percent on 3s against Arizona, forced 14 turnovers and held Arizona to 37 percent shooting on 2s. In short, Michigan made one of the nation’s top teams look ordinary even without its best player at full strength.

For UConn, the key is controlling the pace and getting offensive contributions from across the roster. Hurley won’t win a third title in four seasons with an offensive outburst from only one player. Reed, as good as he’s been, can’t shoulder all of the offensive load against a Michigan frontcourt that can be suffocating defensively.

That means the Huskies will need Karaban and Mullins to shoot it well and will also need strong play from Solo Ball, who had just one turnover in 29 minutes against Illinois. The Huskies only committed four turnovers in Saturday’s win against Illinois while shooting 36.4 percent on 3s and controlling the pace. Controlling the tempo is critical for UConn. If the Huskies can keep the game close or even build a small lead while forcing Michigan to play more in the halfcourt than in transition, that’s the best path to an upset.

KenPom: Michigan 77, UConn 70
DraftKings: Michigan -6.5

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