2026 NCAA tournament: Previewing Big Ten Final Four matchups

Illinois guard Keaton Wagler.

Nine Big Ten programs made the NCAA tournament this season, including regular-season champion Michigan and tournament champion Purdue.

After the first weekend of March Madness, Ohio State, Wisconsin and UCLA were eliminated, leaving six programs entering the Sweet Sixteen.

Four Big Ten teams advanced to the Elite Eight after Iowa beat Nebraska in the Sweet Sixteen and UConn beat Michigan State.

In the Elite Eight, Iowa lost to Illinois, which advanced the Fighting Illini to the Final Four for the first time since 2005. Michigan beat Tennessee to secure a second Final Four bid for the Big Ten.

Here’s a look at the matchups involving Big Ten programs in the NCAA tournament Final Four:

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn (Indianapolis, Saturday, 6:09 p.m., TBS/TNT/TruTV)

The lowest-seeded team to reach Indianapolis, Illinois beat Penn, VCU, Houston and Iowa to reach Lucas Oil Stadium. Given the proximity to Champaign and the fact that it’s been 21 years since Illinois has played in the Final Four, expect a healthy turnout of Fighting Illini fans on Saturday night.

UConn, meanwhile, beat Furman, UCLA, Michigan State and Duke to reach the Final Four for the third time in four seasons. The win against Duke featured the most memorable moment of the tournament thus far as a 3-pointer from freshman Braylon Mullins sunk the Blue Devils late in a stunning collapse by Duke.

The free-throw line figures to loom large in this matchup. Illinois ranks first nationally in opponent free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) at just 19.4 percent, while the Huskies rank 307th at 40.5 percent. Illinois isn’t a team known for getting to the line and is highly dependent on the 3-point shot, but if UConn fouls like it normally does, the Fighting Illini are well equipped to convert. Illinois is shooting 78 percent from the line, which ranks 16th in the country.

Second-chance points also bear watching, as Illinois is the nation’s third-best offensive rebounding team and UConn is 30th.

For Illinois, figuring out how to defend Tarris Reed will be pivotal to winning. The 6-foot-11, 265-pound senior center is a monster in the paint and Duke had no answer, as he went for 26 points, nine rebounds, four blocked shots and three assists in 33 minutes. Reed has earned KenPom Game MVP honors in three of UConn’s four NCAA tournament games.

For UConn, the Huskies must figure out a way to slow down freshman guard Keaton Wagler, who is coming off a 25-point game against Iowa in the Elite Eight. The 6-foot-6 Wagler plays at his own pace, controls the game from the backcourt and is an elite 3-point shooter at 40.7 percent.

As the spread and analytic projections indicate, this game is a near toss-up on paper and the first of what should be two terrific matchups on Saturday night between two well-coached, very talented teams.

KenPom: Illinois 74, UConn 70
DraftKings: Illinois -1.5

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 1 Arizona (Indianapolis, Saturday, 8:49 p.m., TBS/TNT/TruTV)

No disrespect to Illinois or UConn, but this is the matchup college basketball fans have been waiting for all season.

The Wolverines are No. 1 in KenPom and the Wildcats are No. 2 by the slimmest of margins. The winner will emerge as the favorite to cut down the nets on Monday night in Indianapolis.

Michigan has cruised to the Final Four, beating Howard, Saint Louis, Alabama and Tennessee by a combined 90 points. Arizona has also had a relatively stress-free path, but did trail Purdue at halftime in the Elite Eight before dismantling the Boilermakers in the second half for a comfortable 15-point win. The Wildcats beat LIU, Utah State, Arkansas and Purdue by a combined 82 points.

The Wildcats enter with the nation’s longest winning streak – 13 games – and have been dominant in the paint. Arizona ranks fifth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and second nationally in 2-point field goal percentage defense. Both of those strengths will be pivotal against a Michigan frontcourt that has been dominant with Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara. There are not many teams that can stand toe-to-toe with Michigan up front, but Arizona is one of them.

Arizona also puts a lot of pressure on opposing defenses with its ability to get to the rim and draw fouls. The Wildcats don’t take many 3-pointers and are scoring 56.8 percent of their points from 2s and 22.8 percent from the line. The Wildcats rank seventh nationally in free-throw rate. Michigan has to force Arizona into long 2s and limit fouls.

For the Wolverines, it’s important to have a strong shooting night from the perimeter, which isn’t always easy with the shooting backgrounds in a football stadium. If Yaxel Lendeborg, Elliot Cadeau, Nimari Burnett and others are making 3s, it will open up the paint for Johnson and Mara to operate. The Wolverines also need to be able to score in transition, which is a major strength of their offense. Not only does Michigan need to shoot it relatively well, but the Wolverines also can’t get stuck in a half-court matchup trying to score against a set defense. The Wildcats have the nation’s second-best defense, and scoring in transition would be a healthy boost for Michigan’s chances of prevailing.

KenPom: Michigan 80, Arizona 79
DraftKings: Michigan -1.5

(Photo credit: Illinois Athletics)

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