What to Expect: IU basketball hosts Northwestern
- Alex Bozich
- 2h ago
IU basketball begins a critical three-game home stand on Tuesday night. The Hoosiers host Northwestern, which is 11-16 overall and 3-13 in Big Ten play.
Tuesday’s game is set for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off on FS1:
After back-to-back home wins against Wisconsin and Oregon, Indiana went on the road last week and lost to Illinois and Purdue by a combined 49 points.
The Hoosiers are clinging to an NCAA tournament spot but need a strong finish to the regular season to punch their ticket to March Madness. With three of its last four games at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Indiana likely needs to go 2-2 to at least stay on the bubble. Only a 3-1 mark or better to finish the regular season will make the Hoosiers feel strong about their tournament chances.
Up first: a matchup with Northwestern, which has dominated Indiana in recent seasons. The Wildcats have won the last five meetings in the series, including two in a row in Bloomington.
MEET THE WILDCATS
Chris Collins, in his 13th season at the helm in Evanston, is on track to finish with his first losing season since the 2021-22 campaign.
The 51-year-old has compiled 204 wins in his time at Northwestern and has guided the program to three NCAA tournament appearances.
But after a 17-16 record last season following the graduation of Boo Buie, this winter has been tough for the Wildcats after the graduations of Brooks Barnhizer and Ty Berry.
A rebuilt Northwestern roster is led by Nick Martinelli, one of the Big Ten’s most consistent scorers. The rest of the roster, however, has been inconsistent.
The 6-foot-7, 225-pound Martinelli is a crafty lefty who can score from anywhere. Martinelli is averaging 22.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 34.9 minutes per game. He’s shooting 50.1 percent from the field, 43.5 percent on 3s and 80.9 percent from the free-throw line.
He’s the only senior in the rotation and in recent games, the Wildcats are only going eight players deep.
Junior point guard Jayden Reid, a transfer from South Florida, has started 21 of the team’s 27 games and averages 10.1 points and a team-best 4.9 assists in 24.7 minutes per game. Reid is shooting just 38.7 percent from the field and 31.2 percent on 3s. He is, however, capable from the perimeter with a career 3-point shooting percentage of 37.6.
Reid is joined in the starting backcourt by freshman guard Jake West, a 6-foot-3 native of Philadelphia. West has started the last 11 games and is shooting 38.5 percent on 3s in conference games. He’s averaging 4.2 points in 19.5 minutes per game this season, but recently scored 18 points in 35 minutes in a road loss at Iowa.
The guard and wing backups are currently sophomore Angel Ciaravino and junior Jordan Clayton. The 6-foot-6 Ciaravino has started 14 of the 26 games he’s appeared in and is shooting 61.4 percent on 2s this season but just 25 percent from distance. The 6-foot-2 Clayton has made 10 starts and is shooting 37.7 percent on 3s this season and is connecting at a 40.9 percent clip on 3s in league play.
The Wildcats are currently starting a pair of freshmen in the front court. Tre Singleton, a Jeffersonville native, starts at the four with Tyler Kropp, a 6-foot-9 native of Powell, Ohio, at the five.
Singleton led Jeff to a Class 4A state championship last spring and has been productive at the high-major level in his first season. He’s struggled from the perimeter at just 8-for-48 on 3s, but is shooting 60.2 percent on 2s and averages 7.9 points and 4.8 rebounds in 24.9 minutes per game.
Kropp was inserted into the starting lineup beginning with the USC game on January 21 and averages 3.1 points and 2.1 rebounds in 11.7 minutes per game.
Northwestern’s most productive frontcourt player this season has been Cincinnati transfer Arrinten Page, who has made 14 starts and is the team’s second-leading scorer at 10.4 points per game. The 6-foot-11 Page, who began his career at USC, is shooting 55.1 percent from the field and is third on the team in rebounding with 4.5 per game. He has the seventh-best block percentage in the Big Ten. But his minutes have declined since his last start against Nebraska on January 17. Over his last 10 games, Page is logging just 15 minutes per contest.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
All stats in the chart are for conference games only and are updated through Sunday.
Northwestern ranks in the bottom four of the Big Ten in offensive and defensive efficiency, which isn’t a surprise given its 3-13 mark in conference games.
Offensively, the Wildcats are shooting just 31.7 percent on 3s and 48.7 percent on 2s. This is a low-volume 3-point shooting team that scores 28.1 percent of its points from 3s in league play. Indiana, by comparison, scores 39.1 percent of its points on 3s, which is fifth in the league. Northwestern ranks just 16th in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) and 15th in offensive rebounding percentage.
Defensively, Northwestern is the worst defensive rebounding team in the league and ranks 15th in opponent free-throw rate. Given those facts, Indiana can’t afford to lose the rebounding or free-throw battle on Tuesday. Expect the Wildcats to try to slow the game down and force IU into isolation situations offensively.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
The KenPom projection is Indiana by eight with a 76 percent chance for a Hoosier victory and Bart Torvik projects a 10-point IU win with an 82 percent win probability.
The obvious key with Northwestern is making Martinelli work for every point he scores. He’s going to get up a ton of shots and has plenty of 20-point games in league play. But keeping him off the foul line and forcing contested 2s is key for the IU defense.
Indiana shot the lights out in its last home game against Oregon and the Hoosiers are at their best when the ball touches the paint and moves around the perimeter for in-rhythm looks. Northwestern will try to slow the game down, make it ugly and hope to play spoiler as IU seeks a win it desperately needs to make the NCAA tournament.
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